Hostrauser's DCI Rankings - Week 2

[hostrauser]

I'm sorry, but, you have Pacific Crest ranked a lot too high! They have not gone head to head against Troop, Crossmen or Blue Stars and you have them up near this group! Troopers have handily beaten Academy and they are grouped tightly with Xmen and Blue Stars. Until you actually have a competition I think you have a west coast inflation state of mind!

In their last head-to-head match-up, Pacific Crest was 11.55 behind Carolina Crown and 10.65 behind the Blue Devils (6/30 - Riverside, CA)

In their last head-to-head match-up, Troopers were 11.60 behind Carolina Crown and 11.10 behind the Blue Devils (7/6 - Denver, CO)

Quod erat demonstrandum.

[mckdan]

In their last head-to-head match-up, Pacific Crest was 11.55 behind Carolina Crown and 10.65 behind the Blue Devils (6/30 - Riverside, CA)

In their last head-to-head match-up, Troopers were 11.60 behind Carolina Crown and 11.10 behind the Blue Devils (7/6 - Denver, CO)

Quod erat demonstrandum.

I know how you are doing the approximations, but, when there are more than ten days between shows you cannot just assume that PC is going to rise as quickly as you are saying! In drum corps, you need to have the input of the judges in order to properly adjust your show. Without the input and the actual performances in front of the crowd PC, Academy, etc are at a definite disadvantage. I would say that these factors need to be put in to consideration. You seem to have a West Coast preference because of the inflation of the scores and the fact that you are assuming score progression.

[BozzlyB]

I know how you are doing the approximations, but, when there are more than ten days between shows you cannot just assume that PC is going to rise as quickly as you are saying! In drum corps, you need to have the input of the judges in order to properly adjust your show. Without the input and the actual performances in front of the crowd PC, Academy, etc are at a definite disadvantage. I would say that these factors need to be put in to consideration. You seem to have a West Coast preference because of the inflation of the scores and the fact that you are assuming score progression.

Just so you are completely aware, this thread will not determine the outcome of any competitions this summer.

[N.E. Brigand]

I know how you are doing the approximations, but, when there are more than ten days between shows you cannot just assume that PC is going to rise as quickly as you are saying! In drum corps, you need to have the input of the judges in order to properly adjust your show. Without the input and the actual performances in front of the crowd PC, Academy, etc are at a definite disadvantage. I would say that these factors need to be put in to consideration. You seem to have a West Coast preference because of the inflation of the scores and the fact that you are assuming score progression.

If you don't like hostrauser's system, why not post a list yourself, based on your preferred methods?

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Link to discussion threads for all 2013 World Class corps

[skywhopper]

I know how you are doing the approximations, but, when there are more than ten days between shows you cannot just assume that PC is going to rise as quickly as you are saying! In drum corps, you need to have the input of the judges in order to properly adjust your show. Without the input and the actual performances in front of the crowd PC, Academy, etc are at a definite disadvantage. I would say that these factors need to be put in to consideration. You seem to have a West Coast preference because of the inflation of the scores and the fact that you are assuming score progression.

Dude, relax. He's got to make some assumptions for imperfect data. He's explaining what those assumptions are. It has zero effect on the actual scores the corps receive, it's just a model. He says himself it's not predictor, but instead a projection of how they would do assuming trends etc stay the same.

You want to critique his methods, you should go back to his projections from previous years and check how they line up with the results, and then suggest tweaks that might produce better results, that's fine. But don't accuse hostrauser of "preference" etc. What does that even mean in this context? Is money being distributed based on these numbers? Bets being made? Tickets unpurchased? Auditions unperformed? No. Take it easy.

[flammaster]

Show percussion scores and you will be surprised who you see up there!

[BlueDevils92]

Hopefully BD can raise this score at the upcoming regoinal

[13strokeroll]

I know how you are doing the approximations, but, when there are more than ten days between shows you cannot just assume that PC is going to rise as quickly as you are saying! In drum corps, you need to have the input of the judges in order to properly adjust your show. Without the input and the actual performances in front of the crowd PC, Academy, etc are at a definite disadvantage. I would say that these factors need to be put in to consideration. You seem to have a West Coast preference because of the inflation of the scores and the fact that you are assuming score progression.

As a statistician, I can attest that, although not pinpoint barometers, these approximations have bourne as significant over time, with variations less than 1 std dev . In layman's terms, the numerical scores might be off a point or 2 in either direction, but the placements and spreads bear true. In fact, this data from seasons past pretty succinctly demonstrated evidence of multiple failures in Wheeler's principles over time indicating process tinkering. In short, slotting was statistically demonstrated. I'd say that's pretty significant.

[mckdan]

As a statistician, I can attest that, although not pinpoint barometers, these approximations have bourne as significant over time, with variations less than 1 std dev . In layman's terms, the numerical scores might be off a point or 2 in either direction, but the placements and spreads bear true. In fact, this data from seasons past pretty succinctly demonstrated evidence of multiple failures in Wheeler's principles over time indicating process tinkering. In short, slotting was statistically demonstrated. I'd say that's pretty significant.

My only issue was the extreme time between the shows for Pacific Crest. Plus, they have such a small amount of shows and have not gone head-to-head with Troopers, Crossmen, Colts, etc! I know you put a disclaimer on your poll and I appreciate that trying to guess the exact level of each corps is much like winning the powerball!

[max.meigel]

My only issue was the extreme time between the shows for Pacific Crest. Plus, they have such a small amount of shows and have not gone head-to-head with Troopers, Crossmen, Colts, etc! I know you put a disclaimer on your poll and I appreciate that trying to guess the exact level of each corps is much like winning the powerball!

I know what you mean. It's frustrating at times to see PC so high up despite their lack of available data. But I'm sure Hostrauser's system accounts for that. It really is too bad that we won't see those corps face off until San Antonio.