luv4corps Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Sorry if this is a repeat question... looked through and didn't see anything... If, say, Friday were a rainout, would they just hold Saturday and tough beans for the Friday corps? Is there a chance they'd try to combine it all into Saturday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Corps Guy Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 (edited) anomalous trough = a trough is an elongated region of relatively low pressure, anomalous means its not normal or out of a usual position. Kinda like a front, but not really, troughs are normally assc with a front Numerical Guidance = Models. Embedded Shortwaves = a kink in the trough...so if the trough is in a straight line say from ND to OK, but bends counter clockwise a bit in KS...there's your EMB SW...or low pressure to a point. and yes, they all have a AFD written, although like you said may be in a different looking link from office to office. soon we will all be the same. and yes again...I would love to write an AFD that says run for your lives! hahahaha almost did with the Blizzard of 2011. My head hurts after reading this. Way above my head.............................................. :wall: Edited July 31, 2014 by Old Corps Guy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2muchcoffeeman Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 (edited) Is there a chance they'd try to combine it all into Saturday? It would be a tremendous feat. It's not just a question of whether the stadium gates can be opened extra early on Saturday. The Friday corps have travel plans and some may have planned to be hundreds of miles down the road by Saturday morning. Getting all those corps to change their plans would be the big task. Edited July 31, 2014 by 2muchcoffeeman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Corps Guy Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 It would be a tremendous feat. It's not just a question of whether the stadium gates can be opened extra early on Saturday. The Friday corps have travel plans and some may have planned to be hundreds of miles down the road by Saturday morning. Getting all those corps to change their plans would be the big task. ......not to mention all of the ticket issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luv4corps Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Could be two rainouts in a row for OC. Ouch. Must. Stay. Positive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainshdw08 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 My head hurts after reading this. Way above my head.............................................. :wall: Lmao!! sorry man! haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Precious Roy Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I'm still on vacation, so have very limited computer model access. From what I can tell, neither day should be a complete washout. One clue to this in the NWS forecast is that they state "scattered showers and thunderstorms." This tells me they are pretty certain there will be some rain around, but scattered here and there. With about a 50/50 chance that any particular location will get one of those showers during the day Friday, 30% chance after 8 pm Friday, 40% during the day Saturday, and again 30% after 8 pm Saturday. If the field can handle some rain and drain properly, then at worst there should only be some delays. Hopefully. At worst. Hopefully. I think. IMO, any forecast that at this point that has more than 50% or less than 30% chance of rain is probably putting (too much) faith in single model. Pro-tip: be wary of any weather forecast source that gives a single number for a chance of rain (along with highs and lows) for a whole day. That rain chance number applies to the whole 24 hour day. Meaning, a 70% chance means that there is a 7/10 chance of getting measurable rain at some time during the 24 hour day -- it could actually come overnight. It doesn't necessarily apply to the time you are interested in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luv4corps Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I'm still on vacation, so have very limited computer model access. From what I can tell, neither day should be a complete washout. One clue to this in the NWS forecast is that they state "scattered showers and thunderstorms." This tells me they are pretty certain there will be some rain around, but scattered here and there. With about a 50/50 chance that any particular location will get one of those showers during the day Friday, 30% chance after 8 pm Friday, 40% during the day Saturday, and again 30% after 8 pm Saturday. If the field can handle some rain and drain properly, then at worst there should only be some delays. Hopefully. At worst. Hopefully. I think. IMO, any forecast that at this point that has more than 50% or less than 30% chance of rain is probably putting (too much) faith in single model. Pro-tip: be wary of any weather forecast source that gives a single number for a chance of rain (along with highs and lows) for a whole day. That rain chance number applies to the whole 24 hour day. Meaning, a 70% chance means that there is a 7/10 chance of getting measurable rain at some time during the 24 hour day -- it could actually come overnight. It doesn't necessarily apply to the time you are interested in. Fingers crossed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainshdw08 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I'm still on vacation, so have very limited computer model access. From what I can tell, neither day should be a complete washout. One clue to this in the NWS forecast is that they state "scattered showers and thunderstorms." This tells me they are pretty certain there will be some rain around, but scattered here and there. With about a 50/50 chance that any particular location will get one of those showers during the day Friday, 30% chance after 8 pm Friday, 40% during the day Saturday, and again 30% after 8 pm Saturday. If the field can handle some rain and drain properly, then at worst there should only be some delays. Hopefully. At worst. Hopefully. I think. IMO, any forecast that at this point that has more than 50% or less than 30% chance of rain is probably putting (too much) faith in single model. Pro-tip: be wary of any weather forecast source that gives a single number for a chance of rain (along with highs and lows) for a whole day. That rain chance number applies to the whole 24 hour day. Meaning, a 70% chance means that there is a 7/10 chance of getting measurable rain at some time during the 24 hour day -- it could actually come overnight. It doesn't necessarily apply to the time you are interested in. Exactly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luv4corps Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 (edited) Local weather report says t-storms between 4 - 5 pm and then again between 7 - 8 pm. The rest of the time looks OK. At worst, maybe we're looking at a few delays? Can't wait to hear from our drum corps meteorologists! source: http://www.wfmz.com/weather/hourbyhour/121266 Edited August 1, 2014 by luv4corps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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