The Top 5

[DrumManTx]

Scoring this year is actually MUCH higher than 2012 by this point, by about 2 points. Highest score in June in 2012 was a 77.65 by BD.

[HornTeacher]

Anyone know the last time BD went into July below 80?

2012

77.650 score on June 30th.

[HornTeacher]

Sorry, DrumMan....we posted the same minute.

[DrumManTx]

Great minds think alike!

[Peel Paint]

I hope all of you engaged in (wishful?) thinking for a very close season in the top five are right and prove me wrong, but it's-so-close hyping like this is common on DCP early in the season, and the fact is that it usually doesn't play out like this once they all are getting together in the same shows.

To have it stay close to the end, the corps you think are close must trade caption ranks heavily... that is, each corps has a caption that they're first in, another that they're about second in, and so on down to about fifth. What almost always happens instead is that the corps in first overall--and we all know who that has tended to be of late--will be first in most of the captions and not fourth or fifth or even third in more than one caption--and so on through the top five--the top five do not trade captions evenly enough to keep it close late in the summer. Instead their caption ranks tend to cluster closely around their overall placement rank.

Again--I get that there are exceptions, like Crown's captions in some recent years. But don't focus on one or two captions that stand out--focus instead on all those little caption-rank numbers all the way across and see them as a group, once all the top corps compete together, and you can predict their final placement pretty accurately.

Two common threads to the progression of caption scores most summers:

1. Spreads grow and ranks change little in the shows they're all together in as judge opinions solidify.

2. When there is inconsistency, so Corps A that's second in a caption in San Antonio is in third there in Atlanta, for example, it tends to flip the other way on a different caption, so there isn't much variation in overall placements.

No guarantee. There are rare summers where there's a dramatic move late in multiple captions. I hope you're right, and it's squeaky tight. But we have similar threads most summers about some cluster of corps. And it rarely works out that way at finals.

[HornTeacher]

I hope all of you engaged in (wishful?) thinking for a very close season in the top five are right and prove me wrong, but it's-so-close hyping like this is common on DCP early in the season, and the fact is that it usually doesn't play out like this once they all are getting together in the same shows.

To have it stay close to the end, the corps you think are close must trade caption ranks heavily... that is, each corps has a caption that they're first in, another that they're about second in, and so on down to about fifth. What almost always happens instead is that the corps in first overall--and we all know who that has tended to be of late--will be first in most of the captions and not fourth or fifth or even third in more than one caption--and so on through the top five--the top five do not trade captions evenly enough to keep it close late in the summer. Instead their caption ranks tend to cluster closely around their overall placement rank.

Again--I get that there are exceptions, like Crown's captions in some recent years. But don't focus on one or two captions that stand out--focus instead on all those little caption-rank numbers all the way across and see them as a group, once all the top corps compete together, and you can predict their final placement pretty accurately.

Two common threads to the progression of caption scores most summers:

1. Spreads grow and ranks change little in the shows they're all together in as judge opinions solidify.

2. When there is inconsistency, so Corps A that's second in a caption in San Antonio is in third there in Atlanta, for example, it tends to flip the other way on a different caption, so there isn't much variation in overall placements.

No guarantee. There are rare summers where there's a dramatic move late in multiple captions. I hope you're right, and it's squeaky tight. But we have similar threads most summers about some cluster of corps. And it rarely works out that way at finals.

Pretty good, and well-grounded assessment, Peel. Makes a lot of sense. Nice.

[BRASSO]

I hope all of you engaged in (wishful?) thinking for a very close season in the top five are right and prove me wrong, but it's-so-close hyping like this is common on DCP early in the season, and the fact is that it usually doesn't play out like this once they all are getting together in the same shows.

True.. by the 2nd Regionals, Judges narrow it down considerably to just 1 or 2 Corps at most to chase the Blue Devils out of the attempt at a repeat.

Edited July 1, 2015 by BRASSO

[Jurassic Lancer]

No guarantee. There are rare summers where there's a dramatic move late in multiple captions. I hope you're right, and it's squeaky tight. But we have similar threads most summers about some cluster of corps. And it rarely works out that way at finals.

You are right, of course, but as June ends, hope springs eternal!

[Cleveland1]

I hope all of you engaged in (wishful?) thinking for a very close season in the top five are right and prove me wrong, but it's-so-close hyping like this is common on DCP early in the season, and the fact is that it usually doesn't play out like this once they all are getting together in the same shows.

This hasn't necessarily been a typical season so far though, even this early. Typically BD is about 4 points ahead of SCV early on, this year its been less than 2. In the east 3 corps have been near each other, with 2 swapping firsts head to head, and the third not too far behind.

Typically when the corps meet, the tops line up and things fill in from there. While its certainly possible that at Minnesota there will be a 3+ point spread between 1 and 4 (bluecoats will be in Colorado) do we think that this is likely this year?

[Peel Paint]

This hasn't necessarily been a typical season so far though, even this early. Typically BD is about 4 points ahead of SCV early on, this year its been less than 2. In the east 3 corps have been near each other, with 2 swapping firsts head to head, and the third not too far behind.

Typically when the corps meet, the tops line up and things fill in from there. While its certainly possible that at Minnesota there will be a 3+ point spread between 1 and 4 (bluecoats will be in Colorado) do we think that this is likely this year?

Good point about BD and SCV this year vs. previous years.

But... once you get Cadets... Bluecoats... and Crown on the same field with those two... do you still think there will only be a less-than-two point spread between BD and SCV... as well as among those other three? It's not likely. And again the only way it would happen was that all the corps grouped closely in total score were trading numerous caption ranks. Otherwise their total scores will tend to spread out. That's why corps that may only be a point or two apart in a small local show can end up being three to five points apart at a regional. Other corps are butting in between them in each caption.

This is one key reason why people who have followed DCI for years caution about comparing scores among multiple shows on the same date. With more corps on the field in a particular show like a regional, or championship week of course, the scoring intervals and the rank intervals almost always grow, at least compared to when only two closely ranked corps are competing in a show. If the caption ranks don't vary much, it almost always will play out that way mathematically in the total scores.