Score observation...

[The Tsar]

Maybe it's just me (and this would be the place to disprove me), but it seems to me that there isn't much "back-and-forth" scoring these days. Once a corps passes another corps, that seems to be it. For example, if we look at scores back in 1988...

At Whitewater (1988), the results were:

1. Madison, 2. Bluecoats, 3. Cavaliers, 4. Star, and 5. Regiment.

Madison was the eventual champion in 1988. However, before they got there, they lost to Regiment a few times, lost to Star, lost to Cavaliers, got hammered by Blue Devils, beaten by Vanguard, and fell to Cadets. Heck, they were still losing to PR (the eventual 6th place corps) as late as August 2nd.

Bluecoats went on to beat Cavaliers one or two more times, they tied them, and on the 8th of July, after a lot of score fluctuation, they even came within 3 tenths of eventual 4th place Garfield. It wasn't until DCM, when their show apparently peaked and topped out, as they fell to 5th, and never beat any of the top corps again. The finished 11th at Finals that year.

Cavaliers were beaten by Star and Regiment a few times that year, at one point getting hammered by 3 points (PR), and falling to 4th place behind Star, Madison, and PR at DCM Prelims. In fact, for most of the second half of the season, Cavaliers were scoring behind Star's "Porgy and Bess" show. They did beat Garfield at Semis, but fell to 5th at Finals.

Star of Indiana was several years from being a DCI champ, and ended up in 7th place at Finals, but over the course of the season they tagged Cavaliers, Regiment, Madison, and even took down Garfield for the DCI Canada regional (and beat them again at DCI East). The only corps that they did not beat were Vanguard and Devils.

PR had the most fun ride. They started out 5th place at Whitewater, ended up beating Madison, Cavaliers, and Star. They won the DCM trophy over the other midwestern corps. They then got beaten by Velvet Knights (!) in Wyoming mid-July, came within 7 tenths of Vanguard a few days later, came within two tenths of Garfield in early August before finally succumbing and falling to 6th place at Finals.

That's just one year, and I just used the five corps at the Whitewater show as a comparison. I just don't see this same kind of back-and-forth these days. It's almost like DCI judges have forgotten to take into account the basic inconsistencies that you are bound to get in a performing activity dominated by 16-22 years olds.

The closest thing I can remember is Bluecoats tagging BD and Cavaliers last year...but it seems that for the most part nowadays, once a corps beats another corps, that's it...they never look back. ESPECIALLY if that victory occurs at one of DCI's weekend "regionals." I certainly don't see anything like the above anymore, and while I am aware that drum corps instruction has gotten better, I think that 16-22 year olds can still be every bit as inconsistent as they were 20 years ago.

(Whispered Aside: Of course....if you're judging design instead of performance, I can understand why scores are so....static.)

Edited July 25, 2008 by The Tsar

[bawker]

(Whispered Aside: Of course....if you're judging design instead of performance, I can understand why scores are so....static.)

. . .and there you go.

[blue9195]

(Whispered Aside: Of course....if you're judging design instead of performance, I can understand why scores are so....static.)

Ding, Ding, Ding. We have a winner! ($2 to Bluecoats for design influence of my response.)

[KiltieKemo06]

Yep...perfect analysis. The kids do PERFORMANCE and the judges do DESIGN for the "most" part. With that type of judging the kids will lose every time depending on what the design staff and instructors come up with. The Tsar is right on...again.

[jjeffeory]

(Whispered Aside: Of course....if you're judging design instead of performance, I can understand why scores are so....static.)

BINGO!

[vferrera]

Not that many people are into statistics here, but I did a simple linear regression analysis for all the Div 1 corps in 2006, 2007.

The typical result is that corps improve by about 0.35 pts per day regardless. "Day of season" accounts for 95% of the variability in score. All other factors (performance, judging panel, weather, etc) account for 5%

The day to day fluctuations are typically less than a point. So, if two corps are separated by 1.0 or more, there is almost no chance that their relative placements will change.

[The Tsar]

Not that many people are into statistics here, but I did a simple linear regression analysis for all the Div 1 corps in 2006, 2007.

The typical result is that corps improve by about 0.35 pts per day regardless. "Day of season" accounts for 95% of the variability in score. All other factors (performance, judging panel, weather, etc) account for 5%

The day to day fluctuations are typically less than a point. So, if two corps are separated by 1.0 or more, there is almost no chance that their relative placements will change.

We keep saying that the "Big Three" seem to have a stranglehold on the championship...after all, they account for EVERY SINGLE TITLE between 1992 and today (the lone crashers were two ties....SCV and PR....who tied with one of the Big Three). Let's try to equate that with sports...

Since 1992, 9 different teams have won the World Series (Baseball).

Since 1992, 12 different teams have won the Super Bowl (Football).

Since 1992, 7 different teams have won the NBA Finals (Basketball).

Even in college football, where teams have a better chance of establishing dynasties, we have had 12 different national champions since 1992.

Warning: The following is my opinion only, and has no basis in any fact that I've come across.

The reason why DCI is "dying" (and corps are folding) is not because kids aren't interested (they are), or because kids have more distractions over the summer (they do, but they would still do drum corps). The reason is competitive inertia.

We talk about "ring chasers" who only audition for certain corps...well, they might be more likely to audition for more corps if there was a good chance of them being competitive. The very fact that we can honestly say before a season begins that there is almost NO chance of the Bluecoats or the Crusaders winning a DCI title is a problem.

I realise that certain corps' staffs have more experience and are great at designing the show...but if the performance were judged instead of design, then an off-night for the Blue Devils might mean a Crown or Crusaders or Blue Knights' victory...kind of like used to happen "back in the day."

Edit: I should add that I understand this does not mean the bigger, more experience corps are not going to still do very well at the end of the season. I am mostly talking about the stuff that happens in the regular season.

Edited July 25, 2008 by The Tsar

[RobertPi1ot]

Great topic.

[Tekneek]

That is something I really miss in the activity (one of many things, actually). The judges must be using previous scores as a guide these days much more than was done back then.

[Lance]

I see what you're saying, Nikk, but if we're talking about the same corps winning all the time and taking away competetive inertia, it's something that's been around since the 70s.

The top 3 for the past few years have actually been as diverse or more than previous decades.

Last year, the top 3 were BD, The Cadets, and The Cavies.

In 06, it was Cavies, Reg, and BD.

In 05 it was Cadets, Cavies, Phantom.

In fact, the last time there were identical corps in the top 3 was from 00-03. Other than that, the only other time since 85 that there have even been back to back top 3 finishers was 97/98.

Before that, there were a lot of similar trends. The only other time when the top 3 was that consistent was when BD, SCV, and the Cadets were in the top 3 from 1982-1985. Before that, it was BD, Phantom, and SCV in the top 3 from 1977-1979.

And looking at top 12 finishers since 1976, I see about equal movement between placements and movements of placements among finalists, especially considering how many more corps there were back then compared to now.

If we want to look at an overall dominant 3 corps, the best period to look at would be the 18 year span from 1973 to 1990. Either Santa Clara, BD, or Garfield won 16 of those years.

88 was just a weird year, IMO. They happen.