Does no WGI = no DCI for 2021 (Hypothetical)?

[garfield]

33 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

No, "acceptable" is the word that people in the survey I mentioned were asked.

To put it another way: I'm curious to know if anyone here thinks it's OK that many people have died? And if they do feel that way, I'm also curious to know why, back in March when that was described as a worst case scenario, no one here was saying (as far as I know) that they were prepared to accept that many deaths.

Well, would you do two things, please:  A.  Ask that question somewhere else, and B.  Please share your survey results and especially if you can find someone who actually believes and will admit that a number were acceptable (even if not realizing that the very question IS the trap!)?

It really has nothing to do with the thread.

 

Edited August 23, 2020 by garfield

[JimF-LowBari]

7 minutes ago, garfield said:

Move on.  

But seriously, in my industry I was reading scenario studies from the farm management industry that suggested 250,000 deaths or more in the US, and global deaths reaching 1.5mm.  This was not uncommon.

By April, there were mainstream data and analytical companies plotting global GDP interruptions if the US saw 500,000 deaths.

Also, these studies were many times looking at the global impact if it were, in fact, shown that...well, various global-influenced scenarios.  You can imagine and get the point.

Again, in my business, it's widely known that, by the time the story hits the mainstream news, the event is already over and the scenarios to accommodate and survive it have already been put into gear. 

Big, institutional money managers don't care about anyone's feelings or who's at fault unless it implies an additional global impact.  Money moves like water in the ocean and don't be fooled - no one can "follow it".  But, it appears to me that the smartest currencies around the globe are pouring into the US at astonishing rates and buying our government bonds, and confident investors have pushed stock markets nearly back to the February highs.

Are these truths substantial enough for DCI to plan for the best by following the money?

 

Yeah these retired brain cells are kicking in and recalling the “if we take precautions” and “if we don’t take precautions” wide range of numbers. Should have paid more attention to the higher numbers as thought folks would be more careful. 
 

On topic (I hope 😜)Hope DCI is fluid with their plans as doubt if anything will go on without a vaccine

Edited August 23, 2020 by JimF-LowBari

[garfield]

1 minute ago, JimF-LowBari said:

Yeah these retired brain cells are kicking in and recalling the “if we take precautions” and “if we don’t take precautions” wide range of numbers. Should have paid more attention to the higher numbers as thought folks would be more careful. 

And that's my point.  The expectation was crafted to induce fear, if even for a very viable reason.

But few stopped to think about coming back from such predictions and the actions that they called for at the time (not necessarily here). 

This is late August.  The "season" just ended.

There's plenty of time to make optimistic plans and only the stroke of a pen or key is needed to change that.

Again, it's the planning that DCI, at al, cannot afford to NOT do.

 

[JimF-LowBari]

44 minutes ago, garfield said:

And that's my point.  The expectation was crafted to induce fear, if even for a very viable reason.

But few stopped to think about coming back from such predictions and the actions that they called for at the time (not necessarily here). 

 

Sorry but think it’s a stretch to say the higher numbers were to induce fear. I saw them as statistics with variable  parameters and that’s the numbers that got puked out. And heaven help anyone trying to make predictions and a major part of your data is driven by human nature (like how well people will listen and take suggested precautions)
 

As for actions not sure of the point but wish people had taken better actions (precautions) as we might be in better shape today

Edited August 23, 2020 by JimF-LowBari

[E3D]

The predictions of 1 to 2 million in USA was no doubt about instilling fear. 

[JimF-LowBari]

12 minutes ago, E3D said:

The predictions of 1 to 2 million in USA was no doubt about instilling fear. 

I missed that one... do you remember who gave that number? Trying to fill in some knowledge here

Edited August 23, 2020 by JimF-LowBari

[E3D]

15 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said:

I missed that one... do you remember who gave that number? Trying to fill in some knowledge here

Imperial college was the source used by Uk and USA to set up or suggest shutdowns. 

[JimF-LowBari]

13 hours ago, E3D said:

Imperial college was the source used by Uk and USA to set up or suggest shutdowns. 

Those #### Brits lol.... have some cousins across the pond and uncle was prof at an Oxford branch campus. (legend is he was caught messing with a coed and was asked to resign (“retire”)  “for the good of the reputation of the college and you”. He asked how soon he would have to leave and was told “here’s the paper and here’s the pen - SIGN”. Must have been an interesting conversation when he got home to my aunt, the blood relative.)

Edited August 24, 2020 by JimF-LowBari

[Jeff Ream]

10 hours ago, IllianaLancerContra said:

Hope for the best & plan for the worst.

but announcing all of the planning for the best too soon only creates headaches, so i get the silence

[Jeff Ream]

10 hours ago, E3D said:

Statistically speaking you must live in a hot bed of Covid-19. I reside in 3 largest populated city in the USA and I don't know anyone who died from it. Then again the percentages of death for this per million per 100 thousand is off the charts in the North East. The disparity of deaths per cases is shocking. 

well, no. Even in the dark days of March-May, my area wasn't as bad as places to the east of me ( Philly, NJ, NYC). One worked in health care trying to help those who had it. when PPE was critically short, she got it.