The DCI Champion is too predictable....

[bawker]

title fixed. :P

[skevinp]

Taking your methodology only a little farther, I predicted the top 23 and got 22 of them right. That's over 95%! Is this thing rigged, or what?

[skevinp]

Or, just a thought, as an alternative method of testing your predictions, you might count the number of individual corps whose placement you got right: 2 out of 22.

9%

I would say life may yet hold a few small surprises. :)

[Tom Brace]

OK...seriously...I took a lot of heat last NOVEMBER when I offered an opportunity at early season predictions. Here were mine. Yes, they are altered because two corps (Esperanza and Kiwanis Kavaliers) were still in the mix at that time. Of special note...I picked the winner...blew second and 4th-7th...but hit 13th for Academy....hmmm...not bad for a November pick even before corps had their auditions.

I had the top 7 corps as the top seven but a bit out of order and I predicted Madison out of finals...I took a TON of grief for that pick in November...check the thread...a TON of heat. And I had them in 14th.

Here they are for the fun of it.

From November of 2006...my picks.

1. Blue Devils

2. Bluecoats

3. Cavaliers

4. Cadets

5. Phantom Regiment

6. Carolina Crown

7. Santa Clara Vanguard

8. Boston Crusaders

9. Blue Knights

10. Crossmen

11. Colts

12. Glassmen

13. Academy

14. Madison Scouts

15. Spirit of JSU

16. Troopers

17. Blue Stars

18. Southwind

19. Seattle Cascades

20. Mandarins

21. Pacific Crest

22. Pioneer

Edited August 24, 2007 by Tom Brace

[VKMello84]

We're just now seeing the impact of televised recaps on PBS from the 80s. As DCI grows with participants the more it will probably return to regionality. It seems like it used to be Blue Devils, SCV, Vanguard on the West Coast and everyone else from the Midwest. No we have a stronger sampling from every region in the country (although we probably need a Florida corps to return to strength to really amplify that affect).

What?

[Michael Boo]

Im thinking that plenty of people were closer in their predictions than you. With hundreds of people making predictions, someone is bound to get it right....

Just as someone will win the big lottery...eventually.

[Gaddabout]

What?

Heh! I went back and read it myself and had the same question. That's why I get for posting while working.

I guess what I'm trying to say is DCI started to move away from a cult following to more of a broad-based interest when the broadcasts started hitting TVs (in stereo!) in the 80s. We're starting to see more interest crop up. It's still a very special niche in the American conscience, but people are starting to become more aware of it. Now that it's on ESPN2, I think it can only further grow DCI.

As more and more people think of it as a competition, I think the regional influences will kick back in. There will be more at stake for a kid from, say, Colorado to march Blue Knights rather than travel. It will become more difficult for the biggies to recruit kids and talent will naturally spread itself out.

That's my perspective, anyway.

[dbc03]

USC will be ranked high at the end of this NCAA football season.

Temple will be ranked low.

Football is too predictable :P

But honestly, I see no reason to treat corps that haven't won a championship as second class citizens by putting them in a separate division. When a corps is good enough to beat The Cadets, Cavaliers, and Blue Devils all at the same time on the second Saturday in August we will have a new champion. So far that just hasn't happened and there is NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT.

[L1STEN2311]

really? how about blue coats beating BD and Cavies? how about all of the flip flopping in all of the captions all season? not once this summer was i sure of anything. i thought DCI this summer was INCREDIBLY competitive.

-christopher

[GMichael1230]

I waited to post this to let the DCI 07 season dust to settle down.

This is in reference to my Prediction of how all 22 DIV 1 Corps would finish out the 2007 year. My predictions are on file within the Drum Corps Planet website. I made my predictions 1 FULL week before any shows were performed or scores were released. I also made my prediction without hearing or seeing any of the Div 1 corps rehearse or at any shows. It amazes me that its always predcitable every year of who will win from the following year. Here is the predictions and the actual results.

Predicition Actual

1. Blue Devils 1. Blue Devils

2. Phantom Regiment 2. Cadets

3. Cavaliers 3. Cavaliers

4. Santa Clara Vanguard 4. Phantom Regiment

5. Cadets 5. Santa Clara Vanguard

How interesting, I was 100% correct of getting all 5 in the top 5 and I predicted the winner and 3rd place. What a coincidence...

6. Bluecoats 6. Carolina Crown

7. Madison Scouts 7. Bluecoats

8. Boston Crusaders 8. Blue Knights

9. Glassmen 9. Boston Crusaders

10. Blue Knights 10. Colts

11. Carolina Crown 11. Glassmen

12. Crossmen 12. Spirit

I was 83% correct for the whole top 12. Predicting 10-12 for the top 12. I didn't think that Madison would place lower then 7th. Overall my top 12 was close.

13. Spirit 13. Academy

14. Blue Stars 14. Blue Stars

15. Mandarins 15. Madison Scouts

16. Colts 16. Crossmen

17. Academy 17. Paciific Crest

18. Southwind 18. Seattle Cascades

19. Pacific Crest 19. Southwind

20. Seattle Cascades 20. Troopers

21. Pioneer 21. Mandarins

22. Troopers 22. Pioneer

Of the bottom 11, I was 80% correct with the bottom 5 with those corps being in the bottom 5. I did get 1 placement exact. I expected Academy to make the top 17, based upon on well they performed last year at DIV 2. However, I didnt expect them to be knocking on the top 12 door in 1 year at DIV 1. No DIV 2 corps has ever made top 12 the following year after winning DIV 2 and then competing at the DIV 1 level the next season.

With Finals being in Indianapolis for the next 10 years it makes it a little harder for predictions. However, I do have my early thoughts on who it could be.

I believe/think that it's time for DCI to create another division. The Champions Division where the 6 remianing past champions compete for a Championship. Then the remaining 16 corps then compete for another championship knowing that 6 and 7th place always changes every year with someone new in that spot. Make the winner of the remaining 16 corps a Champion. What an idea?

I guess my main irritation is that no one NEW will ever win the DCI Championship. Unless lightning stirkes and one of the remaining 16 corps gets that opportunity. Or maybe by chance, the Blue Devils place lower than 7th. Then lighting did strike, if that happens. Maybe the judging rubric/criteria needs to be re-rubriced?

Maybe they could vote in a seperate category of the tick system? The tick meaning .1 tenth loss of point for dropping of equipment, part of uniform, caught out of step, intervals to close in the drill or more. Just think what could happen if you add up to 20+ ticks to your score? How much more competitive the scoring would be to be better in those area of judging? Or possible changing of positions.

This wasnt about tooting my own horn, no pun intended, on being right on my predictions. Just a mere observation of an activity that I have been part of for some 40+ years as a performer, staff member or fan. I enjoy the shows that these young student-musicians perform, when i get the opportunity to attend a show. I just would like to see more parity in the activity and not predictability.

I did not intent to upset the grocery cart on this topic. I know other will have their own views and I totally repsect that. Hopefully you can respect the view I have created on this topic.

DISCLAIMER: This is in no way directed towards any of the young student-performers in the activity of any drum corps or the corps themselves. I respect that the staff and musicians work hard, perform at the higest level of musicianship and very dedicated to the activity of drum corps to perform thier respective shows.

CoachSig

LOL. Your predictions were awful you only have 22 spots this year and some were off by a couple of spots. And guess what ? Predict Cadets, Blue Devils, or Cavaliers, and you are gonna be close, why ?? Because they do what they do BETTER consistently and deserve the title. I dont care if the same corps whoEVER it is wins ten years in a row if they are indeed the best.

Parity?? for what ?? Compete, strive, achieve, be the best.

~G~