Tenth Place Score

[JoeDz]

Could we see an all-90's top ten in the prelims? Last year it took 87.838 by Cru to make the finals. With the prelims being the most hotly contested in many-a-year and corps falling into clusters (1-4) (5-7) (9-11) and the clusters overlapping as well as appearing together for the one and only time, I think it will take a 90 to come back for the finals.

Joe Dz

[pregimentx129]

im not sure about 90...thats a bit high, but deff upper 80's for sure...around the same as last year i would say...maybe a little higher but DCA has this nack for just slotting corps...no matter how much better or worse they are, scores will probably stay right around the same...

Heres to a great DCA weekend!

Good luck to all

[TomPeashey]

That's a tough call... probably not but only because of the show dynamics involved in judging 24 corps all at once... ties in a judges overall score are not generally acceptable... subcaption ties though sometimes necessary are still not the best thing... So to ensure the ability to properly rank and rate the show... some close numbers management and perhaps some "conservatism" is required...

all that means that they may not crack 90 at 10th place, but they'll be pretty darn close...

and the 11th and 12th place scores (and at least 13th if not more) will be VERY close behind...

[camel lips]

Scores overall look to be about the same as last year and in some cases a bit higher.

I do predict that to make the top 10 you are going to have to crack 90 this year.

It will be fun to watch.

[Fastone]

Or you could have what we had in prelims in 1999 where one effect judge decided he didn't like anyone too much and low balled all of his scores (lol).

[VOReason]

im not sure about 90...thats a bit high, but deff upper 80's for sure...around the same as last year i would say...maybe a little higher but DCA has this nack for just slotting corps...no matter how much better or worse they are, scores will probably stay right around the same...

Slotting (I prefer to call it ranking) is what the modern scoring system is all about. Anyone who thinks that the 8th place corps in the DCA deserves a 90, just isn't seeing the same thing that I am. BUT, as long as the 7th place corps scores a 90.25, all is right with the world. Plus Joe Q. Fan is not going to "oooh" and "aaah" over a 78.... Edited August 27, 2008 by VOReason

[dukecornwell]

That's a tough call... probably not but only because of the show dynamics involved in judging 24 corps all at once... ties in a judges overall score are not generally acceptable... subcaption ties though sometimes necessary are still not the best thing... So to ensure the ability to properly rank and rate the show... some close numbers management and perhaps some "conservatism" is required...

all that means that they may not crack 90 at 10th place, but they'll be pretty darn close...

and the 11th and 12th place scores (and at least 13th if not more) will be VERY close behind...

Hey Tom,

Excellent point about number management. I submitted a proposal last year to look at the box numbers and perhaps dropping box 1 and leaving four boxes with a expanded number spread. This has been done with some other circuits, a band circuit that adopted it a few years ago, and it just makes it more comfortable for managing numbers.

I think this maybe considered at this years rules congress, and since you brought this subject up, I thought that I could give it some press.

This Championship will be one to go down in the books as one of the most closely contested in a long time.

What a year this has been.

All my best to all corps, and I wish you the feeling that you left it all on the field and could not have done a better performance. Putting score aside, I think that’s what it’s all about.

[JoeDz]

That's a tough call... probably not but only because of the show dynamics involved in judging 24 corps all at once... <my snip>... some close numbers management and perhaps some "conservatism" is required...

<more snip>

Very good point, Tom.. it raises a thought in my mind......

what score would this Saturday's tenth place corps get if the other 23 corps didn't make it to the show at all. If the panel of judges were to know that they were seeing the one and only corps that showed up, would that corps get the 98?.....Or maybe that corps would get the 90 knowing that conservative judging was not needed.

I like the modern DCA system not because of the numbers, but because the placements are honest and the score differences between closely grouped corps reflect their relative positions against each other rather than whatever score any single corps gets.

The DCI first/second place scores are good examples of this. The judges had Phantom .002 ahead of BD........ it doesn't really matter much whether it was 98.002 to 98.000 or 68.002 to 68.000, except for the ooh and aah.

Further, maybe to see a first place score of 99.6, you nedd the 2-3-4 corps to have disappointing performances.

Summary: they're just numbers............but they're relatively (relative to each other) correct.

Joe

PS to Tom:

The cloud burst on Cru' at the '65 Dream Contest is still so fresh in my mind that I would easily believe that your uniform is still wet.....one of the most emotional and entertaining "exits" I've ever seen.

[Dale Bari]

Tom P. is right on about the numbers management.

Discounting sub-caption ties (which, as Tom noted, are highly discouraged), if every judge gave the 1st place corps 9.9, that means 10th place gets 9.0. Unless the 10th place corps places much better than 10th in the visual and GE areas (which are divided less than the music captions), it is unlikely that 10th can score over 90.

Look at it this way:

Last year, 22 corps competed in Prelims. 22nd scored 74.600, and 1st scored a 97.388. 10th, as noted, was 87.838.

The median was between the 11th and 12th place corps, which put the median score at 84.288.

The midpoint of the score range was 85.994, and the average score was 85.904, which are almost identical.

So, the judges left a little more room at the top than required. This fits the judges' needs, as they have to leave room, just in case.

This year there are 24 corps in prelims (with the same 10 corps seeded from 1 - 10 as finished Top 10 last season). Therefore, the extra 2 will be nearer the bottom, ie on earlier in the contest. This may have the effect of pushing up scores, IF the judges don't start lower than they did last year. With the idea that scores need to show a progression over the season, that possibility is minimal. So, the extra corps exerting upward pressure on numbers cancels the downward pressure necessary to prevent a logjam at the top. So again, the chance of a 90 for 10th at Prelims is small.

OK, so try these stats on for size:

Since 1987 (the first year of buildup captions in DCA), the 10th place score has exhibited a small and uneven upward trend.

In the 20 years after 1987, the score has gone up from the previous year 12 times (and down 8 times).

It has gone up in 2 consecutive years 3 times (89/90, 96/97, 06/07) and 4 consecutive years once (99/00/01/02).

It has gone down in 2 consecutive years once (93/94).

The greatest one-year bump was 91-92 (+7.200).

The greatest one-year drop was from 90-91 (-6.000). (That makes one wonder how low the scores were in 1991.)

The highest three 10th place scores were: 2007 (87.838), 1992 (87.600), and 2006 (87.250).

The lowest three were: 1988 (79.900), 1991 (80.400), and 1995 (81.000).

The three closest years, 10th to 1st, were: 1992 (-9.300), 2007 (-9.550), and 1990 & 2002 (tied, -9.900)

The three farthest years, 10th to 1st, were: 1995 (-14.900), 1994 (-14.600), and 1991 (-14.500).

The 10th place score has increased the last 2 years. Only twice in 20 years has the 10th place score gone up again after increasing the 2 prior years (2001 & 2002).

For 10th place to score a 90 this season, the 10th place score must increase at least 2.162. That has happened 6 times in 20 years. And THAT means the 1st place score would have to push above 99, as no 10th place corps has ever been less than 9.300 from 1st.

Just stating some facts. Make of them what you will.

Edited August 27, 2008 by Dale Bari

[Dale Bari]

I want to expand upon my own point a bit:

Discounting sub-caption ties (which, as Tom noted, are highly discouraged), if every judge gave the 1st place corps 9.9, that means 10th place gets 9.0. Unless the 10th place corps places much better than 10th in the visual and GE areas (which are divided less than the music captions), it is unlikely that 10th can score over 90.

Since 0.1 counts differently (GE 0.1=0.1, Music 0.1=.0375, Visual 0.1=0.05), depending on which caption is being discussed, it is possible for a 10th place corps to score over 90, but it is unlikely.

Let's try the simplest situation, where a corps places 10th in every sub-caption. That's a 18.0 on every sheet. So the Visual score is 27.000, Music score is 27.000, and GE is 36.000. The total score is 90.00, right on the button.

If a 10th place corps can improve its performance on the GE sheets, but loses ground in the Music captions, such that its average finish in each sub-caption remains 10th (and therefore, presumably, its overall placement). So, the corps is 10th in every Visual sub-caption (9.0), 11th in every Music one (8.9), and 9th in every GE one (9.1). Then, its scores would look like this: Visual - 27.000; Music - 26.700; GE - 36.400; Total - 90.100.

Obviously, there are millions of permutations, but I think that points out the sheer difficulty of 10th getting a 90. If that happens, the probability of the winner getting above a 99 is greatly enhanced.

In an unrelated (but still related) note: Only twice in 41 years (no Prelims in '65 & '66) has DCA had corps at the top switch places from Prelims to Finals (meaning a corps that placed first in Prelims did not place first at Finals) - 1986 (Bush 3rd to 1st, SCA 1st to 2nd, Cabs 1st to 3rd) and 1996 (Westshoremen 2nd to 1st, Cabs 1st to 2nd).

Edited August 27, 2008 by Dale Bari