Score Inflation

[Liahona]

Now some of this will change, as others have mentioned, when we get a full judging panel in place. As some have noted, the actual score is not as important as the spread between the competitors. Example: one set of judges may score corps X and Y in the low 80s, with corps X at an 83.1 and corps Y at an 82.1. Two days later the same two corps meet, but different judging panel. This judging panel has X at 81.5 and Y at 80.1. The real difference here is not that scores went down, but that there was a variance of .4 on the spread. At show 1 corps Y was only 1 point behind. At show 2 corps Y was 1.4 behind.

I can't prove what I am saying. I can agree on spread theory to a point. (yes I know that is how it is done). I just don't have to like it. It doesn't seem to occur across the country for the TOP scorers. It seems year after year (my feeling not analysis) there are almost ZERO anomalies in final scoring and placements not individual categories. If BD is the corps that judges are going to give the nod for a particular year(for example) they remain as the leader on the score board whether it is a show east coast or west coast or wherever else.

[soccerguy315]

You are making the assumption that ALL points between 1 and 100 are of equal value.

The EASIEST and FASTEST point improvements can be made at the bottom of the scale. For example...A corps can improve quicker from the Box 2 scoring level to the Box 3 level than can a corps going from Box 4 to Box 5. The demands and level of execution to reach Box 5 is much more difficult to attain than Box 3.

If you think of the 5 Boxes as grades (instead of scores) F,D,C,B, and A it might help understand what is happening. The corps currently at the top started with a solid C grade and are now at a B-. It will be much easier for them to get from a C to a B than it will from a B to an A and even more difficult to get to an A+.

That's why we will see many corps seem to "stagnate" a little before breaking into the Box 5 (90) level. The demands of that Box are just much harder to reach. Some of these corps have been able to move from Box 3 to Box 4 in about 10 days of competition. It may well take them 15 to 20 days to move into Box 5...if at all.

No scoring course correction is needed. It is built into the system...if used correctly.

I think there is some merit to this, but if it was completely true, then the middle tier corps would cut the spreads to the top tier corps while the top corps are trying to push into Box 5, which you claim is significantly more difficult than pushing into Box 4. I don't think the lower corps are cutting the spreads though.

[bmroth1]

Didn't years ago the judges used a "tick mark" system--deducting fractions of a point for every miscue? When did they stop doing that?

If memory serves me correctly...1984 was the first year without the tick system.

[behold888]

I wish to offer that in the early season, shortly after everyone from schools that let out at different times comes aboard, scores will improve far more dramatically than later because there are so many large-scale things that need to be fixed in a show—and indeed are fixed. Later on, with the big stuff out of the way, it's much more difficult to find big things to fix and the focus turns to incremental tweaking. And that's why scores don't tend to rise as fast towards the end of the season.

Someone once told me about the 80/20 rule: it takes 20% of your effort to achieve 80% and takes 80% of your effort to get that last 20%

[Bruckner8]

I will use Crown as an example, b/c they are in "first" right now.

14 days ago, Crown scored a 73.75

Currently, Crown is sitting at 83.7

If Crown continues like this, on July 16, they will be at 93

and on July 30, they will be at 103

and at Finals, they will score 113.

So... at the rate scores are going now, all the finalists would most likely score over 100.

Therefore, there has to be a correction. And it is going to be a strong one.

Do you work for government, especially in Climate "science?" LOL. They use unrealistic linear regression, too, in almost the exact same way, to exaggerate dooms day predictions. Why? because Linear Regression "feels good" to the average person, since it's so easily understood...it seems to make sense. [then again, maybe you're being completely sarcastic; I hope so]

Now, what *IS* a problem with the current scores is that we're more likely to get a tie at finals....since we're running out of room

[Guard-ian]

With the exception of California, the rest of the country has only had 5-person judging panels. Once this changes (soon I hope,) all the captions will be judged and this may level things out a bit.

[dbc03]

I think there is some merit to this, but if it was completely true, then the middle tier corps would cut the spreads to the top tier corps while the top corps are trying to push into Box 5, which you claim is significantly more difficult than pushing into Box 4. I don't think the lower corps are cutting the spreads though.

Except for the middle corps it may be just as hard to reach box 4 as it is for the top corps to reach box 5.

[soccerguy315]

Do you work for government, especially in Climate "science?" LOL. They use unrealistic linear regression, too, in almost the exact same way, to exaggerate dooms day predictions. Why? because Linear Regression "feels good" to the average person, since it's so easily understood...it seems to make sense. [then again, maybe you're being completely sarcastic; I hope so]

Now, what *IS* a problem with the current scores is that we're more likely to get a tie at finals....since we're running out of room

well, I'm just showing the scores have to level out because there are no other options. If you want to call it a correction, or stagnation, it is up to you. Obviously it happens.

[soccerguy315]

Except for the middle corps it may be just as hard to reach box 4 as it is for the top corps to reach box 5.

this might be true also.

[bccadet09]

Seeing Cadets score an 84.9, which is more than a point above BD's score last night mean two different things at two different competitions, other than getting me excited.

Anyway, if we take into consideration there is a week longer of tour, and scores seem to be this high now, things are going to slow down in terms of scores going up. Crown even dropped a bit from the last competition, which is another sign too. All the corps are going to go through this.

We just have to be careful how we interpret this rise in score so quickly....if I could predict the top score on July 17th, I could probably say one or two corps will break a 90 in Minnesota. I can see that happening. By Allentown, the top corps will be around a 96, 3 weeks after Minnesota. The scores are going to slow down as we go later in the season....it's easy to break an 80, not as much for an 85, and harder to break the 90s.

Edited July 4, 2010 by bccadet09