Splooie99 Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 Well, since I started this question, I think I will put my thoughts down. I beleive that more of the open class corps design has a little more difficulty then they used to. I also think that 18th is not possible, but 19th is a possibility. Remote, but still a possibility. I do not buy into the 15-20 pt drop. I would think more like 10-15. Also consider, like in WC, the OC scores in the top half will go up faster then the btm half of the WC. So, it is not going to be a surprise to see the Oregon Cru, BDB, SCVC or Spartans to have a winning score of 95-98 in OC finals. The scores in the lower part of WC do not move a whole lot from now on out. Maybe 3-4 points. So the scores end up in the 72-76 range at finals for WC. There is the catch. Take a 97 and subtract 15-20, your at an 82-77 range. Good enough to get you into the top 25. I hope that 4 corps make it into semi finals. I still think that 19th is possible depending on which corps wins open class. I do beleive that the corps that wins open class will not be the highest placing OC corps in semi-finals. You get more credit in WC for demand then in OC. At least I think so. The judges sheets kind of taylor this to some extent. (unless the sheets have changed a lot in the last couple of years.) OC corps tend to not design as difficult shows so that they can taylor to the members abilities. some make their more demanding then others. Just MHO anyway. I am still not sure who will win OC. I think it is up for grabs and who ever has an emotional performance, can win. With 4 days left before OC prelims, it is anyones game. I am very confident that a minimum of 3 OC corps will make it to Semi-finals. More will be determined after Tuesday. Unfortunately, I will not have computer access after tonight. Good luck to all of the OC corps and I will see you all in Michigan City and Indy. Later and see you at the championships! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PioneerWebmaster Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 As a casual observer to the whole situation, it will be interesting to see how things shake out in Indy. Trying to figure out exactly how the Open Class Corps will score on World Class Sheets is next to impossible. Historical trends, while fun to analyze as displayed below, are probably not going to be very accurate since the sheets and activity have changed since 2002. In any event, I took a look at Corps Reps and noted the drop off from Class A/Div 2 Champion from finals to Quarterfinals. Here's the drops that we were seeing prior to the change in finals week format in 2003: 1990 -21.800 1991 -24.700 1992 -19.300 1993 -20.100 1994 -26.400 1995 -20.700 1996 -16.200 1997 -24.400 1998 -21.900 1999 -19.800 2000 -19.850 2001 -16.950 2002 -11.900 How these numbers translate into today's drum corps will be interesting to see! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsOnTheField Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Huh, I did not know they put that rule in. Probably the reason corps weren't able to compete in both when I started marching in Open Class (Div. 2) Guess that rule ended up getting both Capital Regiment and Magic, so sad that they went out. The eventual fate of Capital Regiment and Magic were internal and not a result of a DCI rule. Keep in mind that the rule DCI put in place for the short time was intended to encourage growth into World Class and these corps had the choice to participate in World Class Quarters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwscv87 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I do not buy into the 15-20 pt drop. I would think more like 10-15. I am curious if you have seen some tangible evidence driving you to not "buy into" the facts that several have actually looked at or is that just misguided intuition. :). There is a nice summary right after your post. Magic in 2002 was a very special case that will not be replicated in 2011. The summary in this thread that looks at just class A (open) champions. When I did the math I looked at all OC corps that competed and found the range is a bit lower (15-20). However, I do think the 2nd part of your argument has merit. The gap between the top OC corps and their WC competition may tighten this implying a higher placement than I am predicting. Should be fun to watch. The fans win! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crest99 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 (edited) Having discussed this previously in the World Class forums, I come down pretty close to Jon on this issue. I do not believe any Open Class corps will place higher than 20th. Mandarins and Pacific Crest, where I marched, have been in WC for roughly a decade. Before that they rarely lost in Division II, and even when they did it was mostly to each other. Both corps are much improved from those days, and I don't think they will lose any captions to any Open Class unit. I think 1-3 OC corps might mix it up with Teal and Surf, although what the result will be is impossible to say. Pioneer probably has at least an even chance of making it to Friday, and to be honest I very much want to see them pull it off. On the scoring conversions, we'll simply have to wait and see, which is part of the fun. But I think Magic level numbers are unlikely, because that corps was competing for a Division I finals spot from the beginning of the season, and had the show, staff, and talent to back up their ambition. I don't think you can say that about any OC unit on the field this year. I know that when PC competed on Division I sheets for the first time in 2000 we dropped roughly 17 points, which seems more the norm. Finally, I do not believe that all OC corps will translate equally to World Class sheets, given variations in show design and demand. So rather than a uniform handicap I think there will be a considerable range in dropped scores. All that said, I think this year's prelims format is a good thing. Fans get to see more great drum and bugle corps, and putting new units into the mix creates additional competitive buzz at the beginning of the event. Hopefully that puts more butts in the seats from the get-go for both OC and WC corps. Regardless of placement, I strongly feel that this will be a net gain for all participating OC corps in terms of the respect they are accorded by the rest of the activity. Edited August 5, 2011 by crest99 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwscv87 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I am NOT doing this to be argumentative - I just find this debate interesting... :) I just went through the history and looked at the last 4 years that corps from OC were allowed to compete in WC (1999-2002). The results are as follows: year / # of corps / average drop / range 1999 / 2 / 20.9 / 19.8-22.0 2000 / 4 / 20.3 / 19.5-22.1 2001 / 5 / 18.8 / 17.0-20.2 2002 / 3 / 15.6 / 11.9-17.8 (this includes Magic - a top 12 corps) 2002 / 2 / 17.5 / 17.2-17.8 (this is 2002 excluding Magic) Average over the 4-year period with Magic = 18.8(range = 11.9-22.1) Average over the 4-year period excluding Magic = 19.4 (range = 17.0-22.1) It is a lot more accurate in my opinion to exclude Magic as an outlier. They max'd out the Div II sheets with a 99.05. At any rate I think this is pretty good evidence that using even a 15-20 point range is pretty optmistic given the history. It should probably be more like 17-21 point difference. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piper Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Whichever OC corps get to the WC championships will have nothing to lose. People in a position like that can be dangerous. If I were a WC corps "on the bubble" I would probably be looking over my shoulder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsOnTheField Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 All that said, I think this year's prelims format is a good thing. Fans get to see more great drum and bugle corps, and putting new units into the mix creates additional competitive buzz at the beginning of the event. Hopefully that puts more butts in the seats from the get-go for both OC and WC corps. Regardless of placement, I strongly feel that this will be a net gain for all participating OC corps in terms of the respect they are accorded by the rest of the activity. This is assuming people will actually show up early enough to see the Open Class corps. To be honest, I'm not too optimistic that many who do not normally attend the Open Class event will arrive until later in the day. I hope I'm wrong, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsubone Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 The eventual fate of Capital Regiment and Magic were internal and not a result of a DCI rule. Keep in mind that the rule DCI put in place for the short time was intended to encourage growth into World Class and these corps had the choice to participate in World Class Quarters. I know, but is always sad to see corps go out. I think with Magic, they had become too big for Div.2, so the move to Div. 1 was natural for them. Just wish they were a bit more stable, and had stuck around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MelloHorn13 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 I got a chance to see SCVC live today. From this viewing I concluded that the top Open Class corps will place around the Cascade/Pioneer/Surf area. I would be really surprised if they out scores any other world class corps. Not saying that these corps are bad, but there's clearly a difference bettween a full touring world class drum corps and the good Open Class corps on the field. Especially this late in the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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