The OFFICIAL 2012 Prediction Thread

[playsthekeys]

Can I predict that Teal will fold?

Folding because of financial problems, or staff problems?

[Teuphal]

While it was starting to look likeTeal would fold, they are building some serious momentum as far as design. I highly doubt they will fold this season. Next season? who knows.

[corps8294]

Folding because of financial problems, or staff problems?

It was those d**ned guitars, I tell you!

Edited October 11, 2011 by shortn'sour

[Heath]

Wait. I don't understand how people are making these predictions. We don't even know what our show is yet.

[ayesha3]

Wait. I don't understand how people are making these predictions. We don't even know what our show is yet.

Yeah many of these predictions don't have a super solid base, but I'd say most people are basing their predictions on placements from 2011, all the staff changes, and how they want a certain corps to place next year. I think the first two are pretty good ways to make predictions for 2012.

Edited October 11, 2011 by ayesha3

[charlie1223]

Just some thoughts... not all the corps...

1 or 3. Cavaliers: I Imagine they will undergo the necessary design changes to pull them up top. Last proved to me that they were running out of ideas to stimulate the GE category. Not only by repeating a move from a previous year but by also trying to max out the upside-down thing. This next year is going to hopefully bring them a creative design windfall.

1 - 3. Cadets: They are going to be strong. Not that many ageouts and have a ton of talented members scrambling to get in the corps after their victory and highly successful, audience appealing 2011 show. The design team might have hit their stride and it just could be the Cadet's decade all over again. there needs to be a catastrophic slip up for them NOT to make top 3 and at least we know they are on the right track with their proposed show design.

1 - 3. Blue Devils: Who knows what the designers are thinking now. They need to strike a better balance between fan-friendly, engaging shows and technically supurior shows that win first place. The worst thing that could happen is they go back to being 100% avaunt-guard in order to gain their title again. But little do they know that just suome minor changes to their brass arrangements can sky rocket them to a "fan-friendly" championship. Could be first, but rumor is lots of age-outs, but that shouldn't stop them.

2 - 5. Carolina Crown: This corps can't cut a break in the non-brass captions! Staff changes pretty much reflect that and who knows what to expect from them. I'm confident that their show design will be solid for a "new" kind of champion. The judges need to be open minded that a Cadeviliers show design concept isn't the only thing that can win. Crown often has shows that might not be "championship" worthy but that's through a lens tainted maroon, blue and green. It seems clear to me that cleanliness is their biggest problem, and the thing about cleanliness is that it can hit and miss at a seconds notice!

3 - 5. Santa Clara Vanguard: This corps will suffer the same fate as CC for a while. This year is going to be eye-opening. It will reveal just how much staff changes really can influence a corps placement. Is there any doubt that SCV has all the ingredients for a very very successful year? If so, what are we to assume if things go bust? Either way, lets see if the judges won't pinch them out. A returning champion to the top might make the climb easier but expectations are high and that can either hurt or help them in the judging.

4 - 9. Bluecoats: The Bluecoats will never have a problem finding talented people to join their ranks no matter what place they come in. Which is why they fluctuate so much in the placements. Seems like to me that the designers should trust and commit to the aura that the corps has. Next year they really need to stop copying the successful formula of 2010. (this years show to me wasn't that "brave" or a "new world" for them) They have it in them they just need to trust themselves. Practice what you preach! Are you REALLY going to jump over that

REALLY?!

5 - 10. Phantom Regiment: They proved they can be VERY resilient through staff changes. But can they handle another? This corps has the opposite problem of SCV which is no one knows what the expectation should be. Hopes are high and I imagine that having more vets in the corps this time around will only strengthen them and make the next transition for phantom much easier. But even if Phantom is on its game 100% I imagine that atleast 4 or 5 corps will be much better than them next year. Just seems to me, every-time I make predictions I see just how crowded the top is getting.

6 - 10. Madison Scouts: I imagine that if vet retention is strong this year that they will place higher, simple as that. Even with the change in percussion, i think they have a strong thing going. The staff is very talented and show designers are really hitting the hearts of fans. They just need more years of experience in the corps. With this corps I think if the average age of the corps goes up even just a little they will probably see an increase in their slot.

8 - 10. Boston Crusaders: Don't really know what to say. They need a spark next year. Some kind of burst of identity and originality. Next years show has to really capitalize on the Boston brand in a refreshing. As of right now, I just sort of feel that Boston Crusaders are getting lost in the sauce.

9 - 13. Spirit of Atlanta: What's not going to make this a pop in and out year for them is if they can find the courage to take a risk again. They are going to want to play it safe with their design next year and figure out what parts worked and which parts didn't but that's what Bluecoats did this year and thats why they fell behind. SoA, don't fall into that 12th place curse, you have to be unexpected and show the judges how versitle you really are so you can stay in finals.

10-12. Blue Stars: My dear Blue Stars. What's happening is you're a bit frightened to really think outside of your comfort zone. 2008, 2009, and 2010, were completely different from each other in style, genre, and theme. 2011 was great on paper but it started to blend to much with 2010 without the amazement/shock of something new... If blue stars come back in 2012 with a different musical style other than the one they are currently caught up in they will do better than what I set them as. It's the design team that I think is letting the corps down here, and its strange because they have quite a talented team.

Edited October 12, 2011 by charlie1223

[hornandsoccer]

1. Cavaliers

2. Blue Devils

3. Cadets

4. Phantom

5. Crown

6. Scouts

7. Bluecoats

8. SCV

9. Boston

10. Blue Stars

11. Glassmen

12. Spirit

others that will be very close: Academy and Blue Knights

Really? SCV in eighth? ok, dude.

[roosevelt]

Really? SCV in eighth? ok, dude.

Doesn't sound that far off to me. What makes you think they are going to be so much higher?

[ayesha3]

Doesn't sound that far off to me. What makes you think they are going to be so much higher?

Well I, for one, doubt that the addition of JD Shaw and George Wozniak to the staff would make SCV place lower than they had in the 2011 season..

Also, because there were so many rookies in the corps for the 2011 season, it's likely that there's gunna a lower number of rookies this season. Meaning, more kids used this whole "marching drum corps" thing.

Edited October 14, 2011 by ayesha3

[roosevelt]

Well I, for one, doubt that the addition of JD Shaw and George Wozniak to the staff would make SCV place lower than they had in the 2011 season..

Also, because there were so many rookies in the corps for the 2011 season, it's likely that there's gunna a lower number of rookies this season. Meaning, more kids used this whole "marching drum corps" thing.

Yeah, but it doesn't mean that those rookies are going to come back. The rookies that loved the brass staff that was let go, may not come back. The rookies that didn't like the old brass staff, may be jaded about the whole SCV organization and how things were handled and they too may not come back. With lots of staff turnover (which SCV has been the model of), means that you are probably not going to have good retention and therefore, will be young.

Listen, I am not saying SCV is going to finish 8th. Not at all actually. However, if they do I wouldn't be surprised because they, as a corps, have been trending downward. Sure, they hired some new (and in my opinion, better) staff. That does not mean that all is fixed and even if it does, it does not at all mean that all will be fixed right away. Saying that SCV is going to automatically be in the hunt for a medal and especially a championship NEXT year is putting unfair expectations on the members and the staff. Building that in this activity takes time. Look how long it took for Crown to build up to that level and even then they have only medaled once.

Having the reaction of "Really? SCV in eighth? ok, dude" makes it sound like 8th is so far out of the question that the poster who predicted them there is WAY off base. It also implies that SCV is bound for much much higher than 8th. I think that is both unrealistic and unfair fo 2012. Maybe they will be in the hunt in 2013. Certainly they should be in 2014 if the staff stays intact.

Could you imagine what it would be like if a championship corps fell all the way to 8th or ninth the next year? What if someone would have predicted that on here? They would have been ripped to shreds, right?... Didn't a recent championship drum corps fall all the way from 1st to 9th in one year? Oh yeah, they did, and a majority of this "dream team design" staff were the ones responsible for both the first, and the eighth place finish. So, those are just a few reasons why I say that they could finish in 8th and I wouldn't be surprised. I think they will finish a little higher (5th or 6th maybe?), but if they finish lower I would not be surprised.

Anyways, what I meant by this all was: Give it time.