2007 Predictions

[Triple Forte]

any predictions...?

My prediction is that my official predictions will be coming out on July 4th.......just like every other season...

[nero14]

*One thing I have to say about Bluecoats is I hope they do well but I don't really buy into all this hype for them. I just don't see them anywhere above 6th place again, but of course, stranger things have happened although I am not holding my breath.

..just my .02 cents as usual....

dude... seriously- what hype? besides a couple people here or there saying "they'll be good", there hasnt been much info out of the bluecoats to speak of- they havnt put a camp video out since december- we know there's gonna be a new uni and we know the show selections, but other than that, we know just as much or less than we do about every other top 12 corps... i know you've said before something about there being no way they would crack the top 5 again, no way they'd beat the cadets this year, and that last year was-in your words- "luck"- so i guess i shouldnt really be too suprised at your prediction-

edit: its gonna be a great summer, dont ya think? ;)

Edited May 18, 2007 by nero14

[dciguy01]

Here we go.....

1. Cavaliers

2. Phantom

3. Bluecoats

4. Blue Devils

5. SCV

6. Crown

7. Cadets (I hope they slide even further, but politics won't let it happen)

8. BK

9. Glassmen

10. Boston

11. Colts

12. Madison

---

I'll have 13th through 22nd later

Edited May 18, 2007 by dciguy01

[Matt_S]

In this case, a look at the highest score suggests that while there are still differences that must be taken into account, the modern day Bluecoats and the Glassmen from earlier in this decade are very similar.

sorry, but I reject the premise that these two corps are that similar. Look at Glassmen when they were in singe digits, and you'll see that they were always in that 5-8 pack. Sure they came close to SCV in 2001, but they had a plateau rather than a peak. I think a more apt comparison for Bluecoats would actually be... Phantom Regiment.

Phantom Regiment:

1999: 8th

2000: 7th

2001: 6th

2002: 5th

2003: 4th

2004: 5th

2005: 3rd

2006: 2nd

Bluecoats:

1999: 13th

2000: 12th

2001: 8th

2002: 7th

2003: 7th

2004: 6th

2005: 5th

2006: 4th

I included back to '99 for the Bluecoats to give the same time frame for each. Obviously Phantom's finished higher the last two years than Bluecoats ever have in their history, but if you look starting at where each corps was eighth, the Bluecoats' path is far more similar to Phantom than Glassmen. Of course, the history of neither corps has any bearing on what the Bluecoats actually accomplish, but there's certainly precedent for Bloo to continue climbing as well.

[radiosteele]

1) Blue Devils - I just sense a attitude with this year's show. Every 3 or 4 years, they just seem to bust out and grab the trophy.

2) Phantom Regiment - They are on a collision course for the title, and this may be their year. I don't see them slipping backward at all.

3) Bluecoats - Wow - best show concept and selections of all competing corps this year. That will bump up brass and GE scores from 2006.

4) Cavaliers - These guys could play nursery rhymes and still be contenders. The Billy Joel approach scares me a bit, but this is one of the few corps that can take AC, 70s-ish music and win with it.

5) Cadets - I could be way off on these guys, because I also like their program. The kids bring it every year, and Hop shows no sign of slowing down. He'll keep em moving and improving.

6) Carolina Crown - They just need that one year where everything finally clicks in all captions. Brass and guard will be there, and I think with improved percussion CC moves up.

7) SCV - The more things change, the more things stay the same. Face it, corps are getting judged much more harshly on a technical level than in the past. Vanguard has to step up execution to keep up with the elites, who have been drop-dead awesome for the past 3-5 years.

8) Spirit - Surprise, huh? Well, their "Genesis" program looks to be intriging, and a bit of a departure for the corps. I predict this will increase their potential, and the members will step up to the challenge. They are great performers.

9) - 15) I cannot predict between the Crossmen, Blue Knights, Madison Scouts, Blue Stars, Glassmen, Academy and Boston Crusaders who's going to do what - but count on these corps being in this cluster.

16) - 18) Colts, Troopers and Southwind (in no particular order)

19) - 22) Seattle Cascades, Mandarins, Pacific Crest, Pioneer (in no particular order)

That was easy. I do want to add - 99.9999999% is purely guessing!!

So be nice.

Edited May 18, 2007 by radiosteele

[rut-roh]

sorry, but I reject the premise that these two corps are that similar.

I see what you're saying. I disagree. :)

For the simple reason that Glassmen and Bluecoats to me are more alike as drum corps than they are with Phantom. In other words, Phantom has more or less done it all already in drum corps. That may sound like a bogus reason, and that's fine with me if you think that. This is my own personal reasoning and I stand by it. Phantom's ascent to the elite happened years ago. And no matter how we present the numbers or stats, they've already been to places neither the Glassmen or Bluecoats have ever been. This is not to say that they themselves didn't find themselves having to re-climb the ladder, and that there aren't ANY similarities. There certainly are, as you pointed out. It's just that what I said about placement not always being the most accurate barometer is true. The Bluecoats rose in placement last year, but their final score dropped from the previous year. Did they have a better year anyway than the previous year? Tough to say. It's arguable. And while they are still building towards something, as history as proven, until they actually DO IT, there's not much in my mind to argue. And by do it, I mean start scoring in the 95-96 and above range. That is the rarified air they are seeking and have never been to...air that Phantom has seen many times in the past, including the last two seasons. Until then, in my eyes, I have to put the Bluecoats with the long list of others who have come close and not been able to break through. The good part is that I can place the word "yet" at the end of that last sentence. They're still moving forward, and they have as good a shot to make it as anyone has. And I hope they do. They just need to do it FIRST.

[MGCpimpOtimp]

The Bluecoats rose in placement last year, but their final score dropped from the previous year.

So did the Cavaliers....

[rut-roh]

So did the Cavaliers....

True. Then again, the Cavaliers are another corps like Phantom with little left to prove competitively. Still in another league from Bluecoats.

[melloflava]

1) Blue Devils - I just sense a attitude with this year's show. Every 3 or 4 years, they just seem to bust out and grab the trophy.

2) Phantom Regiment - They are on a collision course for the title, and this may be their year. I don't see them slipping backward at all.

3) Bluecoats - Wow - best show concept and selections of all competing corps this year. That will bump up brass and GE scores from 2006.

4) Cavaliers - These guys could play nursery rhymes and still be contenders. The Billy Joel approach scares me a bit, but this is one of the few corps that can take AC, 70s-ish music and win with it.

5) Cadets - I could be way off on these guys, because I also like their program. The kids bring it every year, and Hop shows no sign of slowing down. He'll keep em moving and improving.

6) Carolina Crown - They just need that one year where everything finally clicks in all captions. Brass and guard will be there, and I think with improved percussion CC moves up.

7) SCV - The more things change, the more things stay the same. Face it, corps are getting judged much more harshly on a technical level than in the past. Vanguard has to step up execution to keep up with the elites, who have been drop-dead awesome for the past 3-5 years.

8) Spirit - Surprise, huh? Well, their "Genesis" program looks to be intriging, and a bit of a departure for the corps. I predict this will increase their potential, and the members will step up to the challenge. They are great performers.

9) - 15) I cannot predict between the Crossmen, Blue Knights, Madison Scouts, Blue Stars, Glassmen, Academy and Boston Crusaders who's going to do what - but count on these corps being in this cluster.

16) - 18) Colts, Troopers and Southwind (in no particular order)

19) - 22) Seattle Cascades, Mandarins, Pacific Crest, Pioneer (in no particular order)

That was easy. I do want to add - 99.9999999% is purely guessing!!

So be nice.

I like that number 8 spot for Spirit!!!!!!!!! It saves me from creating my own wish list. lol...... =) Get it Spirit!!!!!!!

[Matt_S]

I see what you're saying. I disagree. :)

Well then, agree to disagree. :)

Yes, Phantom has done "it" before, they've been an elite corps for quite some time, but they've also had stretches where they've placed low and had to rebuild. They've had staff changes as well, and really the only thing that Phantom 2006 has in common with Phantom 1996 as an entity is the brand name. The Madison Scouts have "been there, done that" before too, but would you use that fact alone to bet on them topping Bluecoats next year? No, because not a single member - staff or marching - remains from the last time Madison was contending for a title. I don't know how many staff members remain with Phantom from their title-winning corps in 1996, but I know that it can't be many. It has been a new generation that's guided the corps on their current rise, and they've arrived with none of the accomplishments of the previous staff. They've had to prove themselves, and they've done so starting from a position not unlike where the Bluecoats found themselves as well. As a corps, Phantom has done "it", but as a staff they hadn't done "it" until they did, just as you said.

As for placements, I agree its imperfect, but it's what we're working with. Raw number score can change from year to year (or even from one night to the next) just as easily, and both measurements rely at least to some extent on the other corps competing.