Fuel Prices

[jetman1287]

I'm not sure if DCI is taking the right steps.

The season pass is $70 for a year, but it's really just for the summer. APD's are still what, $2-3 per performance? Prices of merchandise are high.

Has DCI done any analysis on what will bring in the highest revenue? I feel like sometimes they're just throwing at a dartboard when they come up with these prices, rather than finding out what will bring in the most people/$$.

[bluehull]

There are many reasons! One major factor is the construction of the Russian pipeline from the Caspian Sea to the Sea of Japan (second largest oil deposit in the world) which is all in Russian Territory. There will be a spur running to the northern Chinese city of Harbin. The Japanese have indicated that they will purchase this oil since it is just an overnight transit to their refineries. This will eliminate the 19 or 20 day transit from the Strait of Hormuz to Japan. This will reduce tanker traffic by 35%, and also the leverage of Saudi suppliers. This oil will also be paid for in either Euros or Rubles. Obviously we are not going to screw with Russia, especially now that their boomers are again submerged off our coasts.

This affects us in the sense that the huge refinery in Saudi Arabia At Ras Tannura operated by ARAMCO (arabian american oil co) of which is partially owned by Americans will suffer further losses and further devaluation of the dollar , since the main trading currency will not be dollars any more! If Iran is to start trading its oil in Euros, which it is threatning to do, I will be a severe problem for the dollar, and for the large American corporations that are heavily invested in dollars. It is not in Americans interest for Iran to be able to export any oil , so don't be surprised if Kharg Island (main exporting facility ) is in flames within five months. What does this have to do with drum corps? HIGHER PRICES

[LandoC]

How can corps explore alternative fuels?

Will we have to resort to the super corps model?

[SkyRyder_FMM]

Now for the real world view...and I ought to know; since I am also in transportation...(which today makes my wallet lighter and my rear end more sore )

Your usage of $.50 per gallon increase in May does not explain the real problem; which is a $2.00 (roughly) increase in diesel prices since 2007 tour season. (Note that it is going up at the rate of 3-5 cents a week even now...).

So to update your figures.....21,600 x $2.00 increase since 2007 tour= $43,200 increase in fuel costs alone. Also remember that food prices are soaring due to transportation costs; and these figures do not even account for the price increases (that will happen once the six-week lag in barrel costs translates to current supply) that will take place by the time the corps actually rev up the busses. You can safely add 15% to those costs from 2007; and that is being extremely conservative.

That is a more drastic increase in costs; and will threaten the financial health of many corps.

Also; add into the fact that the pie-in-the-sky fund raising you talk about is absolutely unrealistic...and unattainable. You will, at best, get 20% donation help from your mailing lists...at best. A person's priorities change as they get older...and right now, practically everyone is struggling with these increases. Drum corps is (as painful as it is to say) a non-essential activity; and disposable income is leaving many people. It is nice to think that would happen...but this is not Utopia.

It is not just DC that is in trouble, folks...it is our way of life; a life that the whole world envies; and that we have paid for the right to have by blood. Blood shed not just for us, but to protect the world from evil. Please remember that; and especially this weekend.

I understand the increase since 2007; however, this is not new news, so the budgeting for this increase should likely have occurred. And I am fully aware that response rates are very low. I guess that point kind of went past you. If more of the people signing up for the mailing list would open up their wallets and send a little cash, every corps would have a nice influx of cash that would help out tremendously. Rather than whine about the low response rates, I opted to take a more positive approach to try to make my point. Sorry that subtly blew right past you.

[CrunchyTenor]

The spiraling price of fuel is going to adversely effect the activity. Both from the stand point of the touring corps and the casual and die hard spectators. It's only going to get worse. Anyone who believes other wise is very naive. IMO, this could also be the beginning of the end for extensive touring during the summer. The activity could be forced to tour they way they did prior to DCI. That is, local shows during the first part of the season in a tri state area. This would be followed by an abbreviated nationals tour leading to the Championship, say the last two or three weeks of the season. I am afraid to even guess how something like this would effect the WC corps. The prognosis in this respect can't be that positive.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a return to the regional system. Add more shows in each corps region, and shorten the finals tour to two weeks. Perhaps have a qualifier show from each region to determine what corps from each region would travel to finals. The potential upside would be the rebirth of the regional corps, one that doesn't go to finals every year. The downside could be the same corps qualifying every year. But that's really not that different from the same corps making finals anyway.

Garry in Vegas

[IllianaLancerContra]

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a return to the regional system. Add more shows in each corps region, and shorten the finals tour to two weeks. Perhaps have a qualifier show from each region to determine what corps from each region would travel to finals. The potential upside would be the rebirth of the regional corps, one that doesn't go to finals every year. The downside could be the same corps qualifying every year. But that's really not that different from the same corps making finals anyway.

Garry in Vegas

Well said. If current trends continue, somthing's gotta give.

[Shadow_7]

In 2000 I was buying premium 93 octane at $1.50 per gallon.

In 2004 I was paying $1.74 for 87 octane for the GCS banquet.

In 2006 I was paying $2.59 for 87 octane and spike to $3.30 near Chicago when I marched the Kilties. 100 gallons per camp, so about $300 per camp. Plus oil changes and stuff.

In 2008 if I were to do that 1,200 mile commute per camp, my season would cost at least a grand more. I filled up friday at $3.97 for 89 octane. My new-ish economy car has the engine light come on if I use 87 octane. I bought my cheap economy car because I'm guessing that petrol will NOT be the primary fuel source by the time I run this car into the ground. And maybe sooner.

In the meantime the spikes in fuel is causing inflation. The price of fuel up several hundred percent in a decade. Price of minimum wage, still the same it was eight years ago.

Since the price of gas isn't going down. Everything else is gonna have to catch up. Higher prices. Corps can't necessarily get cheaper fuel, so they're gonna have to earn more money to stay afloat. Higher dues. Or perhaps the super corps model is the only functional alternative. Introducing the Blue Vanguard, the Mad Phantiliers, as I quickly run out of still existing and relatively neighboring corps to combine.

In the meantime I guess we'll just have to stock up on top ramen, bottled water, and solar ovens. By the time it reaches $12 per gallon, Army recruitment is gonna sky rocket. As everyone is gonna be wanting to kill someone.

[prodigal bari]

I understand the increase since 2007; however, this is not new news, so the budgeting for this increase should likely have occurred. And I am fully aware that response rates are very low. I guess that point kind of went past you. If more of the people signing up for the mailing list would open up their wallets and send a little cash, every corps would have a nice influx of cash that would help out tremendously. Rather than whine about the low response rates, I opted to take a more positive approach to try to make my point. Sorry that subtly blew right past you.

No, no point went past me. You said nothing about 2007; and even with budgeting (knowing how tight corps have to budget...and the failure rate of corps these days) how difficult it would be just under normal circumstances it would be just to hold pat; much less deal with a major shocking increase in travel expenses. Just the past MONTH alone over 10,000 transportation companies went out of business due to fuel. Do you think DC will avoid the impact?

Insofar as whining..you are the one with this response for 'everyone should toss in' every time finances are mentioned. It is a good thought...but unfortunately unrealistic. When you consider the fact that there is tremendous financial pressure on everyone to make ends meet today, that DC is not only an optional activity, and quite frankly has changed so dramatically in the last 10 years that it does not resemble what its alumus and older fans (who have the money to donate)remember and relate to; and therefore removes a lot of incentive to donate even under the best of circumstances. (I know, it is off-subject; but is does have an impact.)

Pie-in-the-sky thinking is not going to solve this problem-it may take drastic measures to even preserve this...and many other...activities such as this when necessary activities of life are being drematically impacted. Frankly, on my list, as much as I love DC this is low on my priority list compared to feeding my family, keeping a roof over our heads, and just getting to work.

And yes, I donated to my fav corps. Albeit several months ago.

Edited May 26, 2008 by prodigal bari

[ScottPREuph]

While fuel prices are now higher, I think the real test for corps was in 2004 when prices were dramatically run up in the spring. At least now there has been a warning, and I would think that forward looking corps directors would have at least priced $4.00/gallon for diesel fuel into their budget if not more. Of course the bills are never easy for corps to pay. I think DCI like any other business affected by the higher fuel prices will either adapt or die. Pretty obivous I know but DCI has evolved itself into such a vunerable position absolutely dependant on cheap fuel. I would like to see a first and second tour model return, and maybe this is a good thing for DCI to support more local corps and shows and to seriously look at a more viable system.

As far as the oil prices go I see many technical and fundamental signs in the market that prices are topping in a fashion very similar to the internet boom and bust in 2000. Historically when the US, still the world's top oil consumer, goes into recession prices of oil have dropped 30% or more. Prices were headed towards $2.00 a gallon in the early 90's but were knocked down by the 1992 recession. With the downward revision to the projected GDP last week the economy is growing at a snail's pace at best,and the financial markets ended their short eight week rally. On the futures markets open interest actually declined on crude contracts meaning everyone who can buy has already done so and speculators in the know are taking profits. We also saw a bearish reversal of high volume selling in energy stocks the same day that oil topped $135, a first in this market this year, and another signal that the big money is seeing the end is near. Prices are on an overheated run right now and the scary thing is where does it stop? Right now that seems like it will never happen but historically that is just when the market rolls over. The only question I really have is how many corps will be around to see the end of this.

[HockeyDad]

How can corps explore alternative fuels?

Put sails on their buses?