Plan9 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 As brilliant an observer Bruckner8 may be, even he doesn't render infallible papal statements. Statistics are numbers, not always future facts. I'd love to see a surprise. The lack of surprises in scoring contest to contest, and too often at finals is one of the turn offs to audiences the longer DCI grows old. The older DCI gets, the fewer surprises we see. When fans can predict the outcome before the show is even held, tickets stop being bought. Yes, be realistic with the memberships, but I'd like some amazing turned on performances from those with hopes that anything can happen in America. I don't think anyone would argue with the fact that the 2008 finals was perhaps one of the most memorable in recent DCI history...being very much a nail bitter to the end. But I'm not ready to suggest that less predictable = less butts in the seats. This "less butts in the seats" routine just is not backed up by the numbers. It's often trotted out to emphasize one point or another, and it's never substantiated. I think most fans want to see good drum corps and show up if they have the money and time.....period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drilltech1 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 (edited) I don't think anyone would argue with the fact that the 2008 finals was perhaps one of the most memorable in recent DCI history...being very much a nail bitter to the end. But I'm not ready to suggest that less predictable = less butts in the seats. This "less butts in the seats" routine just is not backed up by the numbers. It's often trotted out to emphasize one point or another, and it's never substantiated. I think most fans want to see good drum corps and show up if they have the money and time.....period. I am not a financial accountant or someone like the poster Garfield who keeps extensive detailed scrutinous records of such statistics. I am speaking though from the number of posters on DCP who keep remarking that they are cutting back on the number of shows they will be attending and the number of tickets they will be buying for themselves, family and friends with the sentiment similar to "if you have seen them once, you've seen enough. I'll get the DVD to watch the other times." Following the posters of DCP is not merely a factor of the down economy or tight economy and how much ticket prices have inflated over the years. Even the man who runs the FN as wonderful as it is for those who can't travel admits it has but 5k subscriptions worldwide. You may be speaking in a macro-economic scope looking at bottom lines, etc. However, you'll have to grant me that Indianapolis isn't Montreal's numbers and is only close to Madison's.... Edited June 6, 2013 by drilltech1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plan9 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I am not a financial accountant or someone like the poster Garfield who keeps extensive detailed scrutinous records of such statistics. I am speaking though from the number of posters on DCP who keep remarking that they are cutting back on the number of shows they will be attending and the number of tickets they will be buying for themselves, family and friends with the sentiment similar to "if you have seen them once, you've seen enough. I'll get the DVD to watch the other times." Following the posters of DCP is not merely a factor of the down economy or tight economy and how much ticket prices have inflated over the years. Even the man who runs the FN as wonderful as it is for those who can't travel admits it has but 5k subscriptions worldwide. You may be speaking in a macro-economic scope looking at bottom lines, etc. However, you'll have to grant me that Indianapolis isn't Montreal's numbers and is only close to Madison's.... I'll grant you that if they did the #### finals in California once in a while....they might see big numbers again! But nooooooooooooo...we have to stay year after year in the mid-worst. Actually, I like Indy....but too much of anything is too much and you are missing a big audience out west!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShortAndFast Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Crown.....but please see Bruckner8's "Competitive Inertia" Theory for details on the subject. I'd think Crown has more or less overcome competitive inertia. Two silver medals in the last 4 years, and taking 5/10 sheets at finals means they've cleared the "good enough to win" bar in almost everyone's mind. Their gold will come unless they have some kind of catastrophic program collapse. Otherwise... Phantom - they've rebuilt better than anyone expected. I guarantee after 2009, very few people thought they'd be a medalist three years later. I could definitely imagine them winning again in the next few years with the right show. SCV - still has a ways to go. On paper they have a great staff, but they have not fielded a top 3 show in a decade. I'd say Bruckner8's theory definitely applies here - before they win, they're going to need to convince the judges they can perform championship-caliber shows again. Bluecoats - I tend to love what they do musically, but they've had a very hard time constructing full shows with a design that will keep them close to the top. They improved pretty dramatically from 2006-2010 but seem to have hit something of a wall. Boston - a title or even a medal is still pretty far away, but they've made big strides in the last 4 years and seem to have some momentum. I could certainly see them returning to top 6 in the near future. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruckner8 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I'd think Crown has more or less overcome competitive inertia. Two silver medals in the last 4 years, and taking 5/10 sheets at finals means they've cleared the "good enough to win" bar in almost everyone's mind. Their gold will come unless they have some kind of catastrophic program collapse. Otherwise... Phantom - they've rebuilt better than anyone expected. I guarantee after 2009, very few people thought they'd be a medalist three years later. I could definitely imagine them winning again in the next few years with the right show. SCV - still has a ways to go. On paper they have a great staff, but they have not fielded a top 3 show in a decade. I'd say Bruckner8's theory definitely applies here - before they win, they're going to need to convince the judges they can perform championship-caliber shows again. Bluecoats - I tend to love what they do musically, but they've had a very hard time constructing full shows with a design that will keep them close to the top. They improved pretty dramatically from 2006-2010 but seem to have hit something of a wall. Boston - a title or even a medal is still pretty far away, but they've made big strides in the last 4 years and seem to have some momentum. I could certainly see them returning to top 6 in the near future. As the author of the Competitive Inertia Theory, I agree 100% with your use of it in the points that I bolded. You've extended it slightly be suggesting SCV has to "earn it all over again" even though they've won 6 times already. I agree. CI can be lost quickly, but if anyone can get it back quickly it's SCV. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Ream Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 The one that scores the highest and realizes you don't have to run/hop/skip/jump around the field for demand 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wadep66 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 It sure seems to me that Crown, much like Cadets has bounced up and down the past few seasons. Perhaps they will change it but I predict a 4th place finish for them this year after finishing 2nd. They did the same a few years back and beat Cadets in 2009 because of the percussion fall at finals. I'd be very happy for them if they win but I'm not as optimistic as others here. SCV seems to be making a slow steady climb, but their overall design package just seems to keep missing the mark. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garfield Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I am not a financial accountant or someone like the poster Garfield who keeps extensive detailed scrutinous records of such statistics. I am speaking though from the number of posters on DCP who keep remarking that they are cutting back on the number of shows they will be attending and the number of tickets they will be buying for themselves, family and friends with the sentiment similar to "if you have seen them once, you've seen enough. I'll get the DVD to watch the other times." Following the posters of DCP is not merely a factor of the down economy or tight economy and how much ticket prices have inflated over the years. Even the man who runs the FN as wonderful as it is for those who can't travel admits it has but 5k subscriptions worldwide. You may be speaking in a macro-economic scope looking at bottom lines, etc. However, you'll have to grant me that Indianapolis isn't Montreal's numbers and is only close to Madison's.... Umm, I don't keep "extensive detailed scrutinous records" either, but I do pay attention to the adults who are running the activity that I love to satisfy myself that they're not running it into the ground. I agree with Plan on this one - the BITS argument has morphed over the years your reference (Montreal and Madison) to include the major regionals that DCI now emphasizes. Too many posters forget that a drum corps season is now made up of many important shows, not just the finals count. BITD, the local shows drew many more fans and parents, true, but I don't think it's fair to compare finals alone from 30 years ago to finals today and call the activity dying on the vine. I remember when we used to complain that we couldn't see all the corps together until finals. Some are casual fans, some are serious fans, and a few are over-the-top obsessed fans who can't imagine life without drum corps. I don't mind being included in the latter because I dig a little deeper than last Saturday's scores. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garfield Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 BTW, my hunch is that Phantom is due to ascend, and Crown is due to decline in the longer-term fight for the championship ring. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slingerland Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 (edited) I agree with Plan on this one - the BITS argument has morphed over the years your reference (Montreal and Madison) to include the major regionals that DCI now emphasizes. Too many posters forget that a drum corps season is now made up of many important shows, not just the finals count. Ok, so here's a hypothetical. What's the bigger draw and could demand the higher ticket price - Springsteen by himself, or Springsteen and Paul McCartney on stage together? History shows us that the bigger you can make the event, the larger the interest and the higher the demand for tickets. Why? Because you know that such a special event doesn't come along every day. Were Finals week the first and only opportunity to see everyone in the same room at the same time, there would be an extra incentive to get yourself to Indy or get yourself to the movie theater for Quarters. But more often than not, Finals week feels like the foregone conclusion of a badly-paced novel, where you know most of what's going to happen in the final chapters well before you ever get to them. I'd like to think that I'm pretty serious about the activity, but the truth is that Finals week has next to no extraordinary interest for me these days, since the judges have already seen everyone cheek to jowl and drawn their conclusions. And in a competition format where so much of the score is based on judges' reactions to design choices, rather than on the performer's ability to turn the tide on any given night, you need to do whatever you can to introduce an element of chance into the big game. IMHO, of course/ Edited June 7, 2013 by Slingerland 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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