Can the Troopers make Top 12 this year?

[BaritoneDad]

Troopers is projected to be at 13th, with Crossmen at 12, Blue Stars at 11. Boston Crusaders and Bluecoats have yet to compete and they should be top 12, unless they drop significantly this year.

This! Bluecoats, Boston, and Colts still haven't even competed at this point. Tonight will be very interesting with Blue Stars, Troopers, Spirit, and Colts going head to head. Even though this will be the third competition for the Troopers and only the first for the Colts, I'm interested to see where these four line up in the early season.

[DrumManTx]

I have now seen videos of the Colts, Spirit of Atlanta, Troopers, and Crossmen. Troopers and Crossmen are my picks for #12 and #13. Troopers has more gas in the tank down the home stretch in difficulty and show depth, and Crossmen are very clean right now, we'll see if they can maintain down the road, only about 2 points behind the Blue Knights is good for them. Colts show is.........I'm going to need to see it a few more times. Haven't really seen something in DCI like it before. Spirit has a shot, but out of the 4 I feel like right now their show doesn't have as much depth and the brass and percussion are having a few more performance issues than Troopers and Crossmen. You never know, could clean up. Come semifinals I see it shaking down like this:

12th - Troopers

13th - Crossmen

14th - Spirit of Atlanta

15th - Colts

These are just impressions after the first week, you never know what could happen with rewrites and cleaning, but the show designs right now are very telling. There's also Pacific Crest, Oregon, Mandarins, and The Academy who just two years ago were in the heat of this fight, they had an off year last year, they could rebound.

Edited June 23, 2014 by DrumManTx

[bmjfelts1988]

I think Troopers can and will make finals this year.

[cowtown]

They have a great show, tons of GE built into it the old fashion way ! Tons of room to grow in this show. I'm a fan !

[BozzlyB]

I think it comes down to how competitive Crossmen are, and maybe Colts. Blue Stars could surprise with this show and even go back to their 8th place status from a few years ago.

[CrownLeadSop]

Yes.

[N.E. Brigand]

So I think these are the numbers for the twelfth-place corps over the past 25 years, showing change from first score to Semifinals scores and the number of days to determine the average improvement per day:

1989 - Crossmen-0.56/day (6/24/1989-55>>8/18/1989-85.8=30.8/55)

1990 - Dutch Boy-0.463/day (6/27/1990-62.7>>8/17/1990-86.3=23.6/51)

1991 - Sky Ryders-0.375/day (6/22/1991-64.5>>8/16/1991-85.1=20.6/55)

1992 - Freelancers-0.416/day (6/13/1992-58.2>>8/14/1992-84=25.8/62)

1993 - Colts-0.412/day (6/12/1993-55.8>>8/20/1993-84.2=28.4/69)

1994 - Colts-0.35/day (6/12/1994-59.2>>8/19/1994-83=23.8/68)

1995 - Magic of Orlando-0.374/day (7/8/1995-69.2>>8/11/1995-81.9=12.7/34)

1996 - Blue Knights-0.516/day (6/21/1996-55.7>>8/16/1996-84.6=28.9/56)

1997 - Carolina Crown-0.39/day (6/24/1997-65.6>>8/15/1997-85.9=20.3/52)

1998 - Colts-0.489/day (6/12/1998-56.5>>8/14/1998-87.3=30.8/63)

1999 - Colts-0.425/day (6/18/1999-61.4>>8/13/1999-85.2=23.8/56)

2000 - Bluecoats-0.444/day (6/25/2000-64.3>>8/11/2000-85.15=20.85/47)

2001 - Colts-0.471/day (6/15/2001-59.6>>8/10/2001-85.95=26.35/56)

2002 - Cascades-0.426/day (6/28/2001-68.05>>8/9/2001-85.95=17.9/42)

2003 - Spirit-0.418/day (6/20/2003-65>>8/8/2003-85.5=20.5/49)

2004 - Glassmen-0.463/day (6/18/2004-63.7>>8/6/2004-86.375=22.675/49)

2005 - Spirit-0.434/day (6/22/2005-63.6>>8/12/2005-85.75=22.15/51)

2006 - Spirit-0.362/day (6/22/2006-67.2>>8/11/2006-85.275=18.075/50)

2007 - Spirit-0.447/day (6/16/2007-60.9>>8/10/2007-85.5=24.6/55)

2008 - Madison Scouts-0.518/day (6/21/2008-61.5>>8/8/2008-86.375=24.875/48)

2009 - Troopers-0.453/day (6/23/2009-65.5>>8/7/2009-85.9=20.4/45)

2010 - Glassmen-0.306/day (6/21/2010-70.3>>8/13/2010-86.5=16.2/53)

2011 - Spirit-0.436/day (6/21/2011-63.9>>8/12/2011-86.55=22.65/52)

2012 - Crossmen-0.443/day (6/20/2012-62.3>>8/10/2012-84.9=22.6/51)

2013 - Blue Stars-0.471/day (6/21/2013-63.1>>8/9/2013-86.2=23.1/49)

Dropping the highest and lowest daily increase, the average is 0.435/day.

Troopers started with 61.7 on 6/18/14, and Semifinals are 8/8/14, which is 51 days later. At an average increase of 0.435/day, Troopers will score an 83.885 and so probably miss Finals.

HOWEVER, last year, Troopers started with 59.0 on 6/21/13 and earned 86.05 on 8/9/13, which was 49 days later, for an average increase of 0.552/day.

If they increase at the same daily rate this year, Troopers will score an 89.852 in Semifinals and almost certainly make Finals.

Well, as of Atlanta, Troopers have improved at 0.526/day. This is shy of their rate last year, but well above the average rate of improvement for twelfth-place corps. In fact, over the past 25 years, only one eventual twelfth-place corps has ever done better, and that was the 1989 Crossmen, whose numbers are skewed by a 16-pt. jump between their first and second shows. If the Troopers were to continue at their current pace, they'd score 88.510 in Semis, which normally would be enough to put them in Finals.

However, the Crossmen this year have improved from 62.200 on June 20 in Clovis to 83.050 on July 26 in Atlanta. And that's an average rate of 0.579/day. If the Crossmen keep up that rate for the next thirteen days, their Semis score will be 90.580.

Lest you think that these numbers strongly suggest that either corps is likely to catch Madison Scouts, let me note that they have improved at nearly the same rate as Troopers, and they started with a notably higher score than Crossmen or Troopers: going from 66.200 at Rockford on June 20 to 84.950 at Atlanta on July 26 is 0.521 per day, which would give them 91.720 at Semis.

No eleventh, twelfth, or thirteen-place corps have ever scored numbers like these, so something is very probably going to give.

[BaritoneDad]

At their season-long daily rate of improvement, I believe the Colts would edge out Troopers if they continue at that same rate through Semis.

[BozzlyB]

Crossmen seem to be holding a pretty consistent spread over Troopers. Without a major shake up I think Troopers are the 13th place corps. Colts have less ground to make up on Troopers, but they're going to have to surge to take 13th away from them.

[Tim K]

The show for Troopers fans to keep an eye on this week would be the CYO Nationals Tribute. Last night's 11th, 12th, and 13th will be competing. I think results could be interesting. As much as I love Madison, and as much as I enjoy this year's show, Madison is not feeling the love from the judges and the show could plateau. This, combined with a typical Troopers surge could make for an interesting August.