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2018 Predict the Results - Week 2!


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2 hours ago, TheAngryBavarian said:

My apologies for posting late. I thought I submitted it earlier...

No excuse.  Into the fire with you!

 

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        Pageant of Drums - Scores       

1 bluecoats88 66.200
2 barigirl78 65.300
3 MarchandPlay 65.200
4 3PoC 64.000
5 ediker 63.800
6 goodmello 63.100
7 wever34 63.000
8 FaustianMachine 62.950
9 ForTheCommonGood 62.850
10 Narrow 62.700
11 mrk 62.600
12 Jim Schehr 62.150
13 c mor 61.800
14 kinetic inferno11 61.700
15 TheAngryBavarian 61.500
16 Mahler49 61.400
17 Western Burger 51.250
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       Moonlight Classic - Scores        

1 goodmello 52.200
2 ForTheCommonGood 49.250
3 3PoC 43.200
3 Narrow 43.200
5 Jim Schehr 43.050
6 Western Burger 43.000
6 c mor 43.000
8 FaustianMachine 42.900
8 TheAngryBavarian 42.900
10 barigirl78 42.500
10 ediker 42.500
12 Mahler49 42.300
13 mrk 42.100
14 kinetic inferno11 42.050
15 MarchandPlay 41.900
16 wever34 41.400
17 bluecoats88 38.900
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    Summer Music Games in Cincinnati  6/25     

      Corps Score
Bluecoats   1 Bluecoats 72.3
Carolina Crown   2 Carolina Crown 71.5
Boston Crusaders   3 Boston Crusaders 68.9
Phantom Regiment   4 Phantom Regiment 66.8
Crossmen   5 Crossmen 64.2
Madison Scouts   6 Madison Scouts 61.5
Pioneer   7 Pioneer

51.3

Deadline: June 25, Monday 5:00pm ET

Edited by bluecoats88
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23 minutes ago, bluecoats88 said:

    Summer Music Games in Cincinnati  6/25     

      Corps Score
Bluecoats   1 Bluecoats 72.3
Carolina Crown   2 Carolina Crown 71.5
Boston Crusaders   3 Boston Crusaders 68.9
Phantom Regiment   4 Phantom Regiment 66.8
Crossmen   5 Crossmen 64.2
Madison Scouts   6 Madison Scouts 61.5
Pioneer   7 Pioneer

51.3

Deadline: June 25, Monday 5:00pm ET

Have you looked at the scores these corps have already received so far this year bc88?

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     Summer Music Games in Cincinnati  6/25     

      Corps  Score
    1 Bluecoats 73
    2 Carolina Crown 72.7
    3 Boston Crusaders  71.4
    4
Phantom Regiment  
67.6
    5 Crossmen 65.6
    6 Madison Scouts 62.8
    7 Pioneer 50.4

Deadline: June 25, Monday 5:00pm ET

 

                      Drums on the Ohio 6/27                     

      Corps Score
Cavaliers   1 Cavaliers 74.2
Phantom Regiment   2 Phantom Regiment 68.4
Blue Stars   3 Blue Stars 68.1
 Colts   4 Colts 66.1
Genesis   5 Genesis 62.0
Music City   6 Music city 53.4

Deadline: June 27, Wednesday 6:00pm ET

 

        Innovations in Brass - Pittsburgh 6/28         

      Corps Score
Bluecoats   1 Bluecoats 78.00
The Cadets   2 Boston Crusaders 75.50
Boston Crusaders   3 The Cadets 73.25
Madison Scouts   4 Madison Scouts 67.00
Spirit of Atlanta   5 Spirit of Atlanta 61.75
Pioneer   6 Pioneer 51.80

Deadline: June 28, Thursday 5:30pm ET

 

                    DCI Central Indiana 6/29                    

      Corps Score
Carolina Crown   1 Carolina Crown 76.00
The Cavaliers   2 The Cavaliers 75.50
Phantom Regiment   3 Phantom Regiment 71.90
Blue Stars   4 Crossmen 71.00
Madison Scouts   5 Blue Stars 68.70
Colts   6 Madison Scouts  64.60
Crossmen   7 Colts 64.00
Genesis   8 Genesis 59.40

 Deadline: June 29, Friday 5:00pm ET

 

          Drum Corps at the Rose Bowl 6/30             

      Corps Score
Blue Devils   1 Blue Devils 76.30
Santa Clara Vanguard   2 Santa Clara Vanguard 76.05
Blue Knights   3 Blue Knights 70.00
Mandarins   4 Mandarins 68.80
The Academy   5 The Academy 65.70
Pacific Crest   6 Troopers 63.60
Troopers   7 Pacific Crest 62.85

Deadline: June 30, Saturday 6:30pm ET

Edited by CarolinaCrown
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43 minutes ago, Ediker said:

@patrick643,  fun thread! 

Have you looked at ways to compute each user's biases?  For example Person_A always over-scores/ranks Academy and underscores/ranks Blue Stars?

How could a person differentiate a bias vs prediction based upon known variables? i.e. who is judging a caption, performance order, nearby tier appearing? It's all a guess.....

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3 minutes ago, JAZZER said:

How could a person differentiate a bias vs prediction based upon known variables? i.e. who is judging a caption, performance order, nearby tier appearing? It's all a guess.....

I should explain better.  For example,

  • If I were to predict Madison above Blue Knights (say, by 0.5 points), and
  • (in the actual results) Blue Knights beats Madison by 1.5, then
  • it would suggest that I have a bias toward Madison in my predictions.  

Computing the extent to which I have a bias might look something like:

  • 3.0 (bias) points for each placement off, plus
  • the difference in actual spread vs. my predicted spread (in this case 2.0 points).
  • My bias toward Madison could be computed as +5.
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24 minutes ago, Ediker said:

I should explain better.  For example,

  • If I were to predict Madison above Blue Knights (say, by 0.5 points), and
  • (in the actual results) Blue Knights beats Madison by 1.5, then
  • it would suggest that I have a bias toward Madison in my predictions.  

Computing the extent to which I have a bias might look something like:

  • 3.0 (bias) points for each placement off, plus
  • the difference in actual spread vs. my predicted spread (in this case 2.0 points).
  • My bias toward Madison could be computed as +5.

All the data is on full view.  You can calculate it, if you want to.

However, I don't think there is enough data to have a lot of confidence in your results.

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