ajlemm Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 I agree with some of the previous posts that say that the top two groups should be one. Besides, Phantom is probably going to win it all baby! ...or the Cavaliers :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxwellNotes Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 I would say colts have the best shot to make it in, other than the corps in your groups. I wish Crossmen would make finals but at this point that seems like a long shot. I see Devils taking it all. I hope Phantom is in the top three. I see SCV moving up the ranks from last year and Glassmen could certainly push into group 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gcurrier Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 I say the odds of someone other than the Cavaliers or Blue Devils winning it all are about 10%. It's nice to dream that a corps could jump both of them, but I think that is HIGHLY unlikely. Are you serious? How long have you been watching drum corps? You may very well be right that they end up the final two--but I don't think the odds are that much in favor. A few examples: 1996 in quarter finals alone Phantom had 94.6, Blue Devils 98.3, by Finals night tie 97.4. so an almost 4 point spread can be made up in two days, but 3.3 (1st to 5th) can't be made up in 3 WEEKS? 2001 example of a corps falling from higher ranks--San Antonio (about 3 weeks earlier) Blue Devils 91.0 Vanguard 89.95 Cavies 89.95 Cadets 89.45--finals Cavies win 98.35 Vanguard gets 4th with 95.35--moved from tied to 3 points behind. If the Blue Devils drop 3 points in the ranks, they are suddenly FIGHTING for third with 4th and 5th right on their heels. LAST YEAR 2005--going by blocking at the time Phantom would be the top of group C (July 23rd placed 5th at 87.80, Cavies were first at 91.775)--suddenly by championships they have flown by Madison, went over Blue Devils and are climbing as a crowd favorite in 3rd. Ok Cadets and Cavies remained on top, but who knows if there was even one more week what could have happened. Phantom can never be counted out from kicking and screaming back to the top--ANY defending champion that i have ever seen, can't be counted out--and never forget the dark horse in DCI (88 Madison came back from 6th the year before taking on odds on favorite Blue Devils who were UNDEFEATED until championships--Madison took the show, Blue Devils 3rd!) My point is not to be argumentative, it’s to offer perspective. I don’t want to give up hope that any of these corps will pull it all off and of course we all love the underdog...my only point is, very often, underdogs win--or get DARN close! I want anyone in the top 5 (#### maybe even 6) to know that i think, they still have time to give me the best they have got and win it all! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gellio Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 (edited) Sorry, I agree with him. I think the odds are 0% that the winner won't be the Cavies, Cadets, or BD. In fact, I think there's a 10% chance they won't be the top 3. Phantom and Bluecoats simply do not have the design to compete with these three come finals. Fact! Are you serious? How long have you been watching drum corps? You may very well be right that they end up the final two--but I don't think the odds are that much in favor. A few examples:1996 in quarter finals alone Phantom had 94.6, Blue Devils 98.3, by Finals night tie 97.4. so an almost 4 point spread can be made up in two days, but 3.3 (1st to 5th) can't be made up in 3 WEEKS? 2001 example of a corps falling from higher ranks--San Antonio (about 3 weeks earlier) Blue Devils 91.0 Vanguard 89.95 Cavies 89.95 Cadets 89.45--finals Cavies win 98.35 Vanguard gets 4th with 95.35--moved from tied to 3 points behind. If the Blue Devils drop 3 points in the ranks, they are suddenly FIGHTING for third with 4th and 5th right on their heels. LAST YEAR 2005--going by blocking at the time Phantom would be the top of group C (July 23rd placed 5th at 87.80, Cavies were first at 91.775)--suddenly by championships they have flown by Madison, went over Blue Devils and are climbing as a crowd favorite in 3rd. Ok Cadets and Cavies remained on top, but who knows if there was even one more week what could have happened. Phantom can never be counted out from kicking and screaming back to the top--ANY defending champion that i have ever seen, can't be counted out--and never forget the dark horse in DCI (88 Madison came back from 6th the year before taking on odds on favorite Blue Devils who were UNDEFEATED until championships--Madison took the show, Blue Devils 3rd!) My point is not to be argumentative, it’s to offer perspective. I don’t want to give up hope that any of these corps will pull it all off and of course we all love the underdog...my only point is, very often, underdogs win--or get DARN close! I want anyone in the top 5 (#### maybe even 6) to know that i think, they still have time to give me the best they have got and win it all! Edited July 21, 2006 by gellio Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chadwick Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 Sorry, I agree with him. I think the odds are 0% that the winner won't be the Cavies, Cadets, or BD. In fact, I think there's a 10% chance they won't be the top 3. Phantom and Bluecoats simply do not have the design to compete with these three come finals. Fact! No, that would be opinion. Your opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneralTsoChicken Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 Sorry, I agree with him. I think the odds are 0% that the winner won't be the Cavies, Cadets, or BD. In fact, I think there's a 10% chance they won't be the top 3. Phantom and Bluecoats simply do not have the design to compete with these three come finals. Fact! How about opinion. That is not fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afd Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 (edited) I've done some analysis of the season's scores so far, and it appears that three or four distinct groups are forming the top 12. Looks like we have a 2-3-5-2 format going. Here's how I see it:Group A: Blue Devils Cavaliers (one of these corps will win it all, barring a miracle) Group B: Phantom Regiment Bluecoats Cadets (interesting group: 2 corps people would like to see win, and "corps controversy") Group C: Santa Clara Vanguard Carolina Crown Madison Scouts Blue Knights Boston Crusaders (this may be the most exciting group to watch from now until finals) Group D: Glassmen Spirit (anyone else sneaking into finals is going to have to jump quite a bit) I think Gmen can squeak into group C and i'd ad Bones, Colts and Blue Stars to group D. There's still alot of time for placements to shift. Edited July 21, 2006 by afd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pr82292 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 Sorry, I agree with him. I think the odds are 0% that the winner won't be the Cavies, Cadets, or BD. In fact, I think there's a 10% chance they won't be the top 3. Phantom and Bluecoats simply do not have the design to compete with these three come finals. Fact! When was the last time you saw either PR or BC. If you have not seen them in the last 4 days you should not comment on design as both corps had made design changes this week. None of us should be commenting on design or predicting placement based on what we have seen of any corps unless that viewing was in the last few days. This is the time of the season when the changes that make huge diffences in placement are made. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gellio Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 No, that would be opinion. Your opinion. Hence the "I think" at the beginning of my post. Doi! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMichael1230 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 While the champion might come from Group A, and it might be unlikely that someone from Group B wins it all, but I think that it is definitely possible that the corps from Group A that does not win it all (BD IMHO) can get caught by one or more of the corps from Group B. So while I agree that the corps from Group B will not likely win it all, they can still reach 2nd. This I totally agree with. While it might be a longshot, but not out of the question for corps: Cadets, Phantom, and Bluecoats to win, it is totally possible that either the Blue Devils or Cavaliers fall to third or fourth even, based on the strength of those pushing them. My feeling is that if Phantom stays on track and defeats both Bluecoats and Cadets at SA, they have a 50/50 chance of catching soeone in the top two, and will not be caught by the other two beneath them. Should Cadets cath either Bluecoats or Phantom at SA, they can not be counted out of a top two finish. Bluecoats are the untested wildcard, consisitency and emotion mut continue for them to rank higher than fourth, but if they remain fourth, you must be ecstatic as a 'coats fan. ~G~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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