Analysis of early season results in '06

[silvertrombone]

Not quite sure how to state this, so this post is more of a question since I've been gone for a while. I was fascinated with the results in the early season compared to the final results in '06. Perhaps more seasoned vets and fans can illuminate my view.

I'm a PR fan and the early season was kind of disappointing from a results standpoint. For example:

6/27/06 - 6/28/06

BD - 80.8

Cadets - 79.05

Phantom - 76.9

6/17/06

Cavaliers - 74.85

Phantom - 71.6

6/18/06

Bluecoats - 72.7

Phantom - 72.4

That's 4 points down to BD, 3 points to Cavaliers, 2+ points to Cadets, and an uncharachteristic loss to Bluecoats (congratulations in order!). Now, I know Phantom has a history of climbing the charts during the season. We did it in '94, passing Madison, then SCV, then finally Cavaliers in Boston--never lost to a corps after passing them. But for crying out loud--where's the love??

Is it just a matter (quoting others) of Cavaliers shows being easier and so it takes longer for Phantom to polish their shows? Is it a matter of Phantom not writing their shows as much to what the judges are looking for? I'm curious to hear the analysis (not barf, please) as to why a corps can place in effectively 6th place in the early season and end up in second with many saying they should have won (not taking away from a great Cavaliers season!) and one of the great shows of all time. Again, many have said such things. If you disagree, that's fine, but that's not the commentary that I am seeking here.

I am interested in hearing DETAILED analysis (not just barf and "well, I think...") on the topic of degree of difficulty, what the judges "want" in a show, and REAL commentary on the 'slotting' in DCI. Regarding this topic, refer to Cadets '05 and '06 shows. Cadets had a phenomenal show in '05 and were rewarded with a very high score as a result--well deserved. I actually liked the '06 show, but that's probably because it actually had some semblance of intelligence in it (references to the umbrella and suitcase that a newbie wouldn't have understood)--I like that sort of stuff. But their '06 show didn't appeal to the judges or the fans as much as '06 for whatever reason. Nevertheless, they placed pretty well in the early week or two.

What gets me is how a show like Phantom's can place so low in June and so high in Finals. And how Cadets can be 2+ points up on Phantom in June and place OVER 3 POINTS BEHIND THEM in August!

For reference, check out scores from just about any year. Look at the champions scores in '93 or '91--right about 97.1 or so both years I think. Yet the top 3 are considered much stronger this past year than most years, their scores were closer, and realistically, any of the three could have won on Finals night. Yet I would have expected such a situation to have entailed much higher scores, more like 98-98.5, not 96's.

Ready, set, go!

[karl E. Hungus]

hey man, have you seen the blue knights website? they had a fantastic line graph of the seasons scores, with breakdowns for different caption scores, for ALL the div 1 corps. it was really an awsome idea and i hope they do it again and DCI picks up on it and puts something like it front page.

anyhow.......

with all the info directly in front of me i thought it was quite obvious(even with outside factors included) that judging as a whole seemed VERY inconsistant from place to place, show to show. i will see if they still have it up. and ill try to write a better analysis. see if you can find that graph for yourself.

[gottalovit]

I think this year in general, the judging was very interesting. I am not sure, but I think more corps switched places between semi-finals and finals than any other year. I think this shows that the corps at the top are getting closer to each other in level of competition.

I have heard a lot of discussion, that after pretty much everyone figured Cavies had 1st locked up, I have heard arguments that Phantom, Cadets, BD, Bluecoats, and SCV could have ended up anywhere from 2-6th place. I thought the entire group had amazing and well performed shows this year. I was sitting with some close friends at finals this year, and we all had different picks of the order of the top 6 places 2-6.

Having seen several of the early season shows, I think the judging was fairly accurate.I was at the show where Bluecoats beat Phantom, and really thought that show, Bluecoats had the better performance. But during finals week, even though I was rooting for Bluecoats to do well, I am not sure their performance was better than Vanguard or Cadets. But the judges thought so, and congrats to Bluecoats on their highest finish ever.

And while this year still kind of had groupings of placements, it seemed more like, on any given night, corps within that group could judged on that nights performance, rather than judges going in and saying, Here's where they placed last night, so here's where they should place tonight.

[silvertrombone]

Thanks, Karl. I was thinking about looking up all the scores on dci and doing the analysis in excel--nifty tools! But if someone else has already done it, I'll just take a look at theirs!

Looking forward to your numbers-based analysis--that's what I was wanting. Thanks!

[PR ROCKS]

You also have to remember that PR came out with their show in layers - i don't just mean making minor changes and adjustments - I mean they added layer upon layer of new effects and new guard work and uniform variations and changes to drill and music to positively move the storyline together. Sure the other corps do this as well, but PR did much more of this than most other corps the last two years and they did the right things and added the right layers and reaped the rewards as the season went on. It's a bit of a risk, but one that has worked well for them recently. I don't think there is a bias, at least not to the extent that they are unfairly scored. I just think this is their approach.

If you are implying that the early season scores created a bias that kept them from winning, then if that were true that would be the negative to "layering" the show in over the season.

[Liam]

The previous post hits it on the head, I think, about the layering. PR ended up with a Championship caliber show, but it was built little by little throughout the year. Maybe if the season were a few weeks longer, they could have added/cleaned/improved just that little bit more to put them over the top??? Maybe, maybe not ....

2 other points, though. The fact that placements jumped around so much the second half of the season is a good thing, imo. Aren't we always complaining that scores should be based on that night's performance, not show design or potential or history. I think last year, the top 6 or so were so closely matched that performance level night to night played a big part of placement order. Kudos to the judges for recognizing that, I say.

Also, don't get carried away with comparing scores year to year. Just because a show scored 97 one year and another show 5 years later scores a 96 doesn't mean the former was "better" than the latter. The judges work on a relative scale, and while they try to have some objectivity to the scale, the scale itself shifts from year to year as the baseline performance level increses across the board. Otherwise, if we used 1990 (for example) as a constant baseline, then this year the Cavies 99.9 would have reigned over all the corps ending with Pioneer's 99.1 ..... (exagerrating a bit, of course, but you get my drift, hopefully :) )

[Stick Stack]

It has a lot to do with how Phantom works on their show. The layers thing was mentioned....

Most of these things occured in July...

The entire closer was pretty much re-written drill wise- and there were some major changes music wise.

A few major spots in the opener, (2 0r 3) were completely re-written drillwise, cut or edited for many various reasons.

The ballad added the drumline and the corps adjusted almost every set for the ballad.

The hornline added body movement.

The third movement stayed the same...mostly? Can't remember.

Then guard added character work, got a different set of opener flags, the whole masks were added on, the pants and wings were added on, different colored rifles were used in the 3rd movement...then the whole death shroud...

The whole pre-show was added in with all of the huge flags.

The very end of the show was tweaked into about 4 different versions...

Did I miss anything? Lots of layers. The show wasn't really finished...ever. There were modifications throughout finals. I think this is typical, but even more so with Phantom.

I think Phantom also works at a different pace than other corps, meaning that they know certain things are going to be a wreck for the first few weeks but opt to concentrate on fixing other things knowing that they'll have plenty of time for those things later...

[MGCpimpOtimp]

hey man, have you seen the blue knights website? they had a fantastic line graph of the seasons scores, with breakdowns for different caption scores, for ALL the div 1 corps.

Can you link me? I looked for it on BK's website and couldn't find it.

[AzEuph]

I think people have nailed it with the layers. Look at last year, Madison beat Phantom at their homeshow and look at the ending products. Each year you see shows that come out pretty clean, such as Bluecoats this year, while others have more difficult drill or music that takes time to clean. The bluecoats this year were in 2nd place for awhile and then fell all the way to 6th on Semis night. Phantom Regiment had in mind that their complete show would be done by mid-july compared to late june. I think on this note had there been 1 more week of shows that Finals could have been much different. I think Bluecoats could have falled all the way to 7th and Vanguard could of moved up to 4th with their progess in the last few weeks. IMHO.

[scadesboi]

Well, i mean, that IS why it's competition...cuz things change....look how things ended up. I'm not so sure it has anything to do with "slotting" or getting "screwed" early season by judges, rather than simply where the corps was at the time in their progression of the show and how the judges saw it. That's why the season is 2 months long, so things can get changed and cleaned - right?

Edited March 12, 2007 by scadesboi