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Anyone else predicting the normal top 4 this year?


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I don't know about anyone else, but I have the feeling the old top 4 is back again. I don't think Phantom or Bluecoats are going to be in the mix again this year. I think Cadets, BD, Cavies, and SCV are all too strong once again. I could be wrong, but I really think we are going to see the regulars up there once again. I think Phantom, Bluecoats and Crown will be fighting for 5th place, and I would love to see Crown slip in there and edge out Bluecoats for 5th(I love Bluecoats, but think some shakeups there could be cool)

But I would be totally surprised if top 4 isn't anything but the usual. Anyone else getting this vybe this year?

First, I would not call SCV part of the "noraml" top 4. They have not been a top 4 corps in the past few years, and only have 1 top 3 finish in the 2000s. Sorry, I am not dissing anyone here, just stating it as it is. There is NO normal top 4. All there has been for a while is a normal top 3, and that has been the Cavaliers, Blue Devils, and Cadets. End of story - period. Yes, some corps like Phantom have jumped in to the top 3 in the last two years, and Bluecoats, for whom I am pulling for, made top 4 last year; but those are the exception to this point. Now both Bluecoats and Phantom look to be keeping that consistency going, and I know SCV will be great, but it is a mistake to ignore history and what has really happened. It only shows that many of us wear blinders in order to see what we want to see. Thus far here in the 2000s, it is Cavaliers, BD, and Cadets racking up 8 DCI World titles, and everyone else = 0. Most of those other corps have limited top 3 placements, and limited top 4 or 5 placements.

JW

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Well, to be fair SCV, BD, Cavaliers, & Cadets made up the top four for 6 of 7 years between 1998-2004. Yeah, we're a few years removed from that so the "normal 4" is no longer normal, but for awhile it was. Still, in this decade, the Cavaliers and BD have been top four 6 of 6 years, Cadets 5 of 6 years, and SCV 3 of 6 years. PR also has been there 3 of 6 years, with Bluecoats taking the remaining spot.

The problem with the statement "normal 4" is because normally there are 5 or more corps that are consistently in that upper tier. PR has been top five 14 of the last 20 years: '88 & '92 being off years and then the "downturn" from '98-'01. That downturn is what spawned the "normal 4" mentality.

Now with new groups pushing to the upper echelon (Bluecoats and Crown) we look to be returning to the circa 1990 period when it was the "normal 7" plus the rest. (BD, Cavaliers, Cadets, SCV, PR, Madison, & Star).

But JW is correct in saying it's really BD, Cavaliers, & Cadets..... We've tricked ourselves into thinking that there is a fairly broad upper tier, when in fact it's an upper tier and elite tier. 16 of the last 17 years featured a winner from that group of 3.....

Edited by Machine
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P.S. Your top 4 isn't in alphabetical order. :P

Nikk, you should have been a librarian. :P

We'll see ... I'd love to see Regiment in the top 4, but I think Vanguard is still playing catch-up and has a show that's going to go places. Also, with the DCI Borg Judges collective, it will take some time for the opinion leaders to tell all the drones how good the Bluecoats are, since the DCI Judges are about as spontaneous and independent-thinking as a row of turnips.

Again, we'll have to wait and see ...

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I'll throw my hat into the ring.

(Not in finishing order)

Cavaliers

Cadets

SCV

Phantom Regiment

Outside chance: Bluecoats

:)

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Also, with the DCI Borg Judges collective, it will take some time for the opinion leaders to tell all the drones how good the Bluecoats are, since the DCI Judges are about as spontaneous and independent-thinking as a row of turnips.

How dare you question the judges.

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Top 4? What happened to The Top 6? (real alpha order...not the psuedo alpha of another poster :P )

BD

CAV

CAD

MAD

PR

SCV

I think it's interesting now that Madison has been out of there (only one top 6 since 2000), people are more likely to change the concept to "top 4" instead of giving credit to the corps that have knocked some of these perennial Top 6 out. (Bluecoats last 3 years, Boston 3x, Glassmen and BK once since 2000)

For my money, the real consistency is in the the Top 3. For the first 20 yrs of DCI, it was BD/CAD/SCV. Since 1992, CAV has supplanted SCV....SCV has had only 4 Top 3 finishes since. PR has had 5 in the same timespan. In stark contrast, BD and Cadets have only been OUT of the top 3 merely 3 times since 1992! (CAV, 5 times out)

Now we have all of that history. And DCI knows that history. And the judges know that history. And those excellent corps have had consistent leadership during that history. Success breeds success. The inertia there is almost impossible to break through, and all signs point to that continuing. I'd even argue that when some corps knock one of those three corps out of the top 3, it's more a function of BD/CAD/CAV having on "off" year than it is the supplanter having an "on" year. (1996 PR and 1999 SCV major exceptions!)

If we want new faces in the Top 3, we have to look for corps that are continously improving since 1992. With consistent leadership and direction. Glassmen looked poised to do that. Now it's Bluecoats and Crown.

I hope they all pick up serious inertia, and in 15 more years, we're talking about the "Elite 8," where any one of 8 corps could win in any given year, and it actaully means something to be in the Top 12 again. 2007 is shaping up to be the beginnings of such a trend.

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The REAL question is:

Could this be one of the best "Top 7s" in history, taken as a whole? Alphabetically:

Bluecoats

Blue Devils

Cadets

Cavaliers

Crown

Phantom

SCV

ANY ONE of them has the potential to take it to the top this year and anyone could make a valid argument for it happening. Could someone name the last year THAT argument could be made with a straight face (I know...it's still June...but even so)? Likely a few will separate in the next few weeks to a 1 and 1a tier, but it is still an exciting time.

The SECOND tier ALSO looks ultra-competitive! What a great year for DCI!

Edited by drepsed
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The make-up of the 2007 top 4?? Hmm....

too early to tell. Scores are too close, shows keep changing, etc.

But as for what I'd WISH: :D

In no particular order

Santa Clara Vanguard - their show this year is much stronger than 2006, their hornline sounds richer, and apparently the colorguard is taking no prisoners

Bluecoats - haven't seen them live (and won't until Quarterfinals), but they just seem to be here to stay

The Cadets - while I personally don't think they're hornline sounds that great (tone), their performance levels should keep them afloat

Phantom Regiment - another beautiful music book. Don't know about the visual aspect though (haven't seen them)

Others that aren't likely to drop

The Cavaliers - they'll probably come in at least 2nd (since that's what they've been doing all decade)

Blue Devils - just because their show isn't catchy with fans doesn't mean they won't score well

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