Drumcorpdad62

Crossmen, because it was my son's first year marching for them and first time every marching drum corps.

I work with predictive analytics for a living. This is fun stuff for me. I did some basic analysis of 2019 and results are below. I did not apply any type of advance machine learning to this, all straight statistics. Bottom line -- Blue Devils, Blue Coats, Blue Knights, Blue Stars and Pacific Crest are the only corps who outperformed their average increase from 1st show to last show. Average 6 year increase is an average of the difference between 1st score of the season and last score (I did last score and not high score, even though we know most finals scores go down among the bottom 6). Many reasons for this as we know, show design, age and experience of MM, skill of the staff, how the judge was feeling that day, etc. Top 4 were all different, but I hit on 10 out of 20 placements and pretty close on final score for 11 of the 20. Corps Avg 6 yr increase 1st Score 2019 Spread 2019 increase/avg 2019 predicted score Predicted Finish Actual 2019 Rank actual 2019 score Blue Devils 26.138 71.70 26.63 0.49 97.84 2.00 1.00 98.33 Blue Coats 25.65 71.15 27.09 1.44 96.80 4.00 2.00 98.24 Santa Clara 26.35 72.35 24.25 -2.10 98.70 1.00 3.00 96.60 Carolina Crown 26.27 70.90 25.66 -0.61 97.17 3.00 4.00 96.56 The Cavaliers 25.63 70.20 25.20 -0.43 95.83 5.00 5.00 95.40 Boston 25.38 70.05 24.44 -0.94 95.43 6.00 6.00 94.49 Blue Knights 25.52 66.00 26.05 0.53 91.52 8.00 7.00 92.05 Blue Stars 25.67 65.45 25.78 0.10 91.12 9.00 8.00 91.23 The Cadets 25.09 67.10 22.23 -2.86 92.19 7.00 9.00 89.33 Mandarins 23.64 67.10 22.20 -1.44 90.74 10.00 10.00 89.30 Crossmen 24.45 64.00 23.55 -0.90 88.45 11.00 11.00 87.55 Phantom Regiment 24.11 63.25 23.99 -0.12 87.36 12.00 12.00 87.24 Spirit of Atlanta 19.45 66.85 18.74 -0.71 86.30 13.00 13.00 85.59 Pacific Crest 20.11 62.15 23.20 3.09 82.26 18.00 14.00 85.35 The Academy 21.2 64.60 19.70 -1.50 85.80 14.00 15.00 84.30 Colts 23.78 61.90 22.33 -1.46 85.68 16.00 16.00 84.23 Madison Scouts 22.76 63.00 19.14 -3.62 85.76 15.00 17.00 82.14 Troopers 24.09 60.45 21.21 -2.88 84.54 17.00 18.00 81.66 Jersey Surf 16.43 63.95 11.95 -4.48 80.38 19.00 19.00 75.90 Seattle Cascades 15.31 59.35 13.02 -2.29 74.66 20.00 20.00 72.37

Corps PRELIMINARIES Score SEMI FINALS Score FINALS Score Bluecoats 1 Bluecoats 97.225 1 Bluecoats 98.45 1 Blue Coats 99 Blue Devils 2 Blue Devils 97 2 Blue Devils 98.25 2 Blue Devils 98.9 Santa Clara Vanguard 3 Santa Clara Vanguard 96.500 3 Santa Clara 97.45 3 Santa Clara 97 Carolina Crown 4 Carolina Crown 95.950 4 Carolina Crown 97 4 Carolina Crown 97 Cavaliers 5 Cavaliers 93.90 5 the Cavaliers 95.35 5 Cavaliers 95 Boston Crusaders 6 Boston Crusaders 93.445 6 Boston Crusaders 95 6 Boston Crusaders 94.95 Blue Knights 7 The Cadets 90.50 7 Blue Knights 92.5 7 Blue Knights 91 Blue Stars 8 Blue Knights 90.10 8 Blue Stars 91.5 8 Blue Stars 90.75 Cadets 9 Blue Stars 88.90 9 the Cadets 91 9 The Cadets 90 Mandarins 10 Mandarins 88.40 10 Mandarins 89.5 10 Mandarins 89 Crossmen 11 Phantom Regiment 87 11 Crossmen 88.15 11 Crossmen 87.75 Phantom Regiment 12 Crossmen 86.950 12 Phantom Regiment 88 12 Phantom 87.45 Spirit of Atlanta 13 Spirit of Atlanta 86.50 13 Spirit of Atlanta 86 Colts 14 Colts 85 14 The Academy 84.50 Academy 15 The Academy 85 15 Pacific Crest 84.25 Pacific Crest 16 Pacific Crest 84.25 16 Colts 84 Madison Scouts 17 Troopers 81 17 Troopers 81.5 Troopers 18 Madison Scouts 80.50 18 Madison Scouts 81.35 Jersey Surf 19 Spartans 80.10 19 Spartans 81 Music City 20 Legends 79.8 20 Genesis 78.25 Cascades 21 Gold 78 21 Legends 78 Spartans 22 Jersey Surf 77.65 22 Gold 77 Gold 23 Music City 76 23 Jersey Surf 76.98 Legends 24 Louisiana Stars 75.85 24 Music City 76.55 Southwind 25 Genesis 75 25 SeattleCascades 73.5 7th Regument 26 Southwind 74 Guardians 27 7th regiment 74 Louisiana Stars 28 Guardians

Corps PRELIMINARIES Score SEMI FINALS Score FINALS Score Bluecoats 1 Bluecoats 97.225 1 1 Blue Devils 2 Blue Devils 97 2 2 Santa Clara Vanguard 3 Santa Clara Vanguard 96.500 3 3 Carolina Crown 4 Carolina Crown 95.950 4 4 Cavaliers 5 Cavaliers 93.90 5 5 Boston Crusaders 6 Boston Crusaders 93.445 6 6 Blue Knights 7 The Cadets 90.50 7 7 Blue Stars 8 Blue Knights 90.10 8 8 Cadets 9 Blue Stars 88.90 9 9 Mandarins 10 Mandarins 88.40 10 10 Crossmen 11 Phantom Regiment 87 11 11 Phantom Regiment 12 Crossmen 86.950 12 12 Spirit of Atlanta 13 Spirit of Atlanta 86.50 13 Colts 14 Colts 85 14 Academy 15 The Academy 85 15 Pacific Crest 16 Pacific Crest 84.25 16 Madison Scouts 17 Troopers 81 17 Troopers 18 Madison Scouts 80.50 18 Jersey Surf 19 Spartans 80.10 19 Music City 20 Legends 79.8 20 Cascades 21 Gold 78 21 Spartans 22 Jersey Surf 77.65 22 Gold 23 Music City 76 23 Legends 24 Louisiana Stars 75.85 24 Southwind 25 Genesis 75 25 7th Regument 26 Southwind 74 Guardians 27 7th regiment 74 Louisiana Stars 28 Guardians 73.25 River City Rhythm 29 River City 72.5 Golden Empire 30 Cascades 72 Shadow 31 GOlden Empire 70 Heat Wave 32 Shadow 69.75 Raiders 33 Colt Cadets 67 Colt Cades 34 Raiders 64 Les Stentors 35 Les Stentors Heat Wave 63 62.5

Here is the number of age outs over the past 2 years. I would suspect there is a high correlation of age out and drum corps experience. I can't imagine someone marching Blue Devils their age out year and never marched anywhere else. Corps 2017 Rank 2017 Ageouts 2018 Age Outs Average Blue Devils 1 60 51 55.5 Bluecoats 5 55 47 51 Santa Clara Vanguard 2 52 47 49.5 Carolina Crown 3 44 53 48.5 Cadets 7 44 52 48 BlueStars 10 43 48 45.5 Phantom Regiment 9 44 38 41 Boston Crusaders 6 37 42 39.5 Blue Knights 8 33 43 38 Cavaliers 4 33 38 35.5 Colts 15 25 29 27 Academy 14 21 30 25.5 Madison 12 23 26 24.5 Crossmen 11 20 28 24 Troopers 16 22 25 23.5 Mandarins 13 15 26 20.5 Spirit 17 23 17 20

My son marched 2016 and 2017, was supposed to march last year but he decided not to at the last minute (bad decision he knows). He tried out for a top 3 corp this year and didn't make to so decided to go to summer school. At the last minute 2 corps contacted him and said we need you....but he already enrolled. So this year I have no investment but will still follow the season. I went to finals two years in a row and went to Boston for parades and a show. Great activity and I encouraged him to think about marching his age out year.

Also, be prepared, one of these shows (except San Antonio, indoors) usually gets a Thunderstorm. Parking in San Antonio is not fun around the stadium.

My son's nickname his first year was Baby Giraffe, because that is what the tech's said he looked like when he marched. He got better, but was forever known as Baby Giraffe.

Time to bring this back again. Perfect for Crossmen.

My 2 cents. My son auditioned for a top 12 corps. He was called back to every camp and after last camp was offered a contract. He was told he wasn't the best mm, but he worked harder then everyone else and had the best attitude. My opinion was that I was happy to pay the camp costs and transportation for him to have that experience.

If anyone know troopers and madison I would like to know to complete my top 15 list.

Here are the ageouts 17/18 rank 17/18 and rank movement YOY Corps 2017 Rank 2017 Ageouts 2018 Rank Change YOY 2018 Age Outs Blue Devils 1 60 2 -1 51 Santa Clara Vanguard 2 52 1 1 47 Carolina Crown 3 44 4 -1 53 Cavaliers 4 33 6 -2 38 Bluecoats 5 55 3 2 47 Boston Crusaders 6 37 5 1 42 Cadets 7 44 7 0 52 Blue Knights 8 33 9 -1 Phantom Regiment 9 44 11 -2 27 BlueStars 10 43 8 2 48 Crossmen 11 20 12 -1 28 Madison 12 23 16 -4 Mandarins 13 15 10 3 26 Academy 14 21 15 -1 30 Colts 15 25 14 1 29 Troopers 16 22 17 1 Spirit 17 23 13 4

anyone know bluecoats, blue knights, madison, troopers and spirit. corp age outs blue devils 51 santa clara 47 carolina 53 cavaliers 38 blue coats boston 42 cadets 52 blue knights phantom 27 blue stars 48 crossmen 28 madison mandarins 26 academy 30 colts 29 troopers spirit

From 1974 to 2018: 2018 had the smallest spread from top corps to 12th place corps -- 11.905. Followed by 1988 -- 12 and 2006 -- 12.375 2018 had the 6th highest average score of top 12 with 92.414. here are the top 3 1. 2014 92.8375 2. 2010 92.689 3. 1989 92.617 2018 had the 10th highest score (not average) of all time. Interesting -- 9 out of 10 high scores all came since 2002 with only 1989 being before 2002. As noted, 2018 Crossmen had the highest 12 place score followed by 2014 -- 86.225 and 2005 86.075 So, if bunching means that 2018 was one of the best than I would say the statistics prove it out. If by definition best means most competitive.

Great job Crossmen on another finals performance.

I can see where you are coming from on this. At what point is it over protective versus dangerous. I can only say this, I grew up in Texas my whole life. Worked on a farm growing up and hauled hay in June-August on many hot days (picture picking up over 1000 80 pound bales of hay, placing it on a trailer, sometimes up to 6 feet high, and then unloading the hay in a hot barn). These temperatures of over 100 degrees are another matter though. I think that precaution is warranted here, but maybe moving the dates as well.

Dubuque is one of the prettiest cities I have ever been in. Really nice views from up on the bluff.

Sorry, I have a photo to post but can't figure out how to post it. If someone knows how please reply.

Here is a statistical analysis based on corps first score of the season, the highest score in prelims, semis, or finals and the point increase from first score to highest score of the season. I did this going back 16 seasons. I used this to predict the 2017 score (using a past known to test my hypothesis) and then went ahead and predicted 2018 based on the first scores. Overall, there are just too many variables to get an accurate prediction. Variables that can be measured but are unknown are number of returning corp members, age of corp members, number of returning staff, age of staff, etc. Not to mention variables that are that are not quantitative...anyone drop out mid season, heart and hard work of the members, etc. In summary, the higher you start in score and be better you are at improving over the season, then the better chance you have of making finals...in other words, it already tells us what we already know. I do this kind of stuff for a living so I enjoyed the mental exercise.

The "where" wasn't an issue. He loves his corps and they gave him a chance 3 years ago which he is very grateful for. The "why" so late is something we discussed at length, all are too personal to share, but it did involve financial, personal, and educational commitments. I told him I support him either way, and this will be a great learning experience for him on making tough life decisions. I know that at his age I never had to make a tough decision like this, and it will help make him a more mature person, certainly he is more mature then I was at his age.

I told him it was a learning experience. Either way he was going to be disappointed. If he didn't march, then if his corps did well then he was going to regret it. If he did march, then he was missing out on work, friends, and family. He hasn't had a summer home since he was a sophomore and he wanted to experience the feeling of earning money and taking summer classes. He has a good attitude about it, but I know he misses marching since it is his family

Yes, that was what he wanted when he went off to college, but Freshman year in a Music Ed program really ground him down. He wasn't ready for the 6 to 8 hours of practice every day for his major. I really wanted him to march since he committed, but in the end it was his decision. I agree with you on marching a top 4 corp, this won't help him.

After 2 years of marching, my son decided not to march this year a day before move ins. Already had my trip planned out this summer to hit 5 shows and 4th of July parade. Still going to sign up for Flo marching and watch remotely and probably attend one show in person. I have to live vicariously through the other parents this year. My son is till going through withdraws as well.

These are all great points, that is why I like being a part of this forum. My son doesn't necessarily want to get a ring, but does want to challenge himself to be the best and see how he compares to other talent in the corps. I think he knows it is between loyalty to his corp and trying something knew. He wants to be involved with Drum Corps for his life, so getting other experiences may be beneficial to him. For now, he is dedicated to making this current year his best.

My son is in his third year with a top 12 Corp, but wants to jump next year and audition for one of the top 4. How common is it for members to try this? Part of me wants him to stay with the corp that gave him his first shot, but I also understand he wants to challenge himself to be the best.