fifer Posted June 1, 2008 Share Posted June 1, 2008 this is a nonsensical post. i say that not to be confrontational, but just to point out a fact. you have an opinion (one thats wrong, btw) and have pulled up random facts from a website that might seem to support your opinion, but don't, actually. your "scientifically accurate" survey is of all households in the united states, not of all drum corps households, so there's no scientifically accurate point of comparison. those 18-21% are going to fall into one of two categories, the very old, or the very poor, neither of which is a drum corps fanbase. your assertion that people give the opinions expressed on a website too much credence, and that no scientifically valid weight can be placed on them is just plain silly. i do this for a living, i provide metrics and tracking, make recommendations based on my findings, and produce quantifiable results. all from online communities. they work, and they provide an accurate market forecasting tool, and yes, they are scientifically as worthy as polling and other forms of traditional statistics. and i actually do "KNOW" that, working with it day in and day out, unlike you, who has a randomly based opinion that you are trying to back up with 5 minutes of online "research". i don't mind your having an opinion (although in this case it's completely off base), and i'm not one of those guys who likes to remind people that they are presenting opinion and not fact (thats a lame statement on an internet forum always made by someone who doesn't like your argument and is now pouting about it). but please, don't go lecturing people on "science" and "facts" on an issue you have no education or expertise on. using terms like that misrepresents both you and your arguments, and in a case like this where your opinions are completely offbase it just makes you look bad. 1. If what I said IS an opinion, then there is no right or wrong, simply my opinion (one that YOU said is wrong, btw) and your opinion. So how you can say this is "to point out a fact" is beyond me. 2. It's nice to know that you consider people over 65 to be the VERY old!! Since 50% of those who don't use the Internet (per the survey I mentioned) are over 65, that would result in about 10% of the total survey number who are "very old" (in your opinion). I would dare say that the percentage of attendees at an average drum corps show that are over 65 is sufficient enough a number to be entitled to an opinion when it comes to what they like or don't like, as well as what they feel about the future of drum corps. 3. If you took the time to look into the Parks Associates study, you would have found that only 14% of the 20% of respondents didn’t use the Internet because they could not afford a computer. Whereas 44% of the non-Internet users don't use it because they say they "are not interested in anything on the Internet". With attitudes like your "you have the right to an opinion although it is wrong and I have the right to an opinion of which is fact" mindset on the Internet, I can understand their feeling. 4. There are MANY things about DCP that make its polls, etc. scientifically inaccurate. One very obvious is the many people with multiple accounts that they use to "stuff the ballot box", another is the numerous people who simply vote by corps allegiance or based on which director, designer, etc. they love or hate the most. Finally, the people who vote tend to be those who are truly passionate one way or another on that specific topic. So nearly every poll is scientifically inaccurate because there is no way to insure that the sampling is a proper demographic mix. 5. And before you go and accuse people of having no idea of what they are saying while trying to impress us all with your expertise, I have a Masters in Human Factors and do web site usability testing and market data analysis for a living. DCP is not a valid demographic representation of the larger population of drum corps fans. So, as I stated previously, opinions expressed through comments and polls on DCP should be given SOME weight and value but CANNOT be relied upon to be scientifically accurate. You have NO scientific evidence to prove that it is and, again, by the nature of the beast alone, there is no way to truly govern polls on DCP to ensure that they are scientifically accurate - that in NOT what it is designed/built to do. But thanks for your (correct, of course) opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audiodb Posted June 1, 2008 Share Posted June 1, 2008 hardly gospel, but professional polling outfits actually create scientifically valid polls. the questions are crafted to.... (snip) I'm sorry, but "professional polling" is not a science - it's a business. Generally speaking, the phrase "scientific poll" is an oxymoron. The whole concept of polling ignores a basic tenet of human behavior - we change our minds from time to time. That said, the degree of inaccuracy of a poll is what is up for discussion. I think most of us believe that polls give a good enough approximation to be of some value. But some of us won't admit that fact when confronting a poll with results we don't like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted June 1, 2008 Share Posted June 1, 2008 audiodb, please be specifiic with who you're talking about. Are you talking about whitedawn? If so, are you really saying that because he doesn't think polls on dcp are models that reflect drum corps fandom in general that he came to that conclusion because he doesn't like the results of the polls on dcp? Since I'm with whitedawn on this, are you really saying the same thing about me? If not, who are you saying that about, out of curiosity? If you're talking about me, you're wrong. I don't care what the results of the polls on dcp are. I wouldn't care what the results of a carefully constructed model with variables and controls built into it would say, either. But I do know the difference between the two, and that's all I've tried to explain. There's really nothing else to say. If you think dcp polls accurately reflect the general sentiments of all drum corps fans, then good for you. But please, don't reduce rational responses by people who disagree with you to vague statements like "but some of us won't admit that fact when confronting a poll with results we don't like." It reflects poorly upon you and nobody else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audiodb Posted June 1, 2008 Share Posted June 1, 2008 My comment wasn't directed at you, Lance....or anybody specific. It was a generalization. Honestly, I haven't even backtracked far enough to discover what poll was being dismissed in this thread. Just trying to point out that polls are neither 100% accurate nor 100% inaccurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted June 1, 2008 Share Posted June 1, 2008 Yeah, of course no poll is 100% accurate or inaccurate. Nobody claimed otherwise in here as far as I can tell. In fact, I think what I and those who agree with me are trying to say is that there is no way of knowing the degree to which dcp polls accurately reflect the sentiments of all dci fans. They could be 100% accurate, or they could be 0% accurate. But even Zogby models are constructed with variables and controls intended to provide some way to statistically measure the accuracy of the information they gather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mad_scotty Posted June 1, 2008 Share Posted June 1, 2008 1. If what I said IS an opinion, then there is no right or wrong, simply my opinion (one that YOU said is wrong, btw) and your opinion. So how you can say this is "to point out a fact" is beyond me.2. It's nice to know that you consider people over 65 to be the VERY old!! Since 50% of those who don't use the Internet (per the survey I mentioned) are over 65, that would result in about 10% of the total survey number who are "very old" (in your opinion). I would dare say that the percentage of attendees at an average drum corps show that are over 65 is sufficient enough a number to be entitled to an opinion when it comes to what they like or don't like, as well as what they feel about the future of drum corps. 3. If you took the time to look into the Parks Associates study, you would have found that only 14% of the 20% of respondents didn’t use the Internet because they could not afford a computer. Whereas 44% of the non-Internet users don't use it because they say they "are not interested in anything on the Internet". With attitudes like your "you have the right to an opinion although it is wrong and I have the right to an opinion of which is fact" mindset on the Internet, I can understand their feeling. 4. There are MANY things about DCP that make its polls, etc. scientifically inaccurate. One very obvious is the many people with multiple accounts that they use to "stuff the ballot box", another is the numerous people who simply vote by corps allegiance or based on which director, designer, etc. they love or hate the most. Finally, the people who vote tend to be those who are truly passionate one way or another on that specific topic. So nearly every poll is scientifically inaccurate because there is no way to insure that the sampling is a proper demographic mix. 5. And before you go and accuse people of having no idea of what they are saying while trying to impress us all with your expertise, I have a Masters in Human Factors and do web site usability testing and market data analysis for a living. DCP is not a valid demographic representation of the larger population of drum corps fans. So, as I stated previously, opinions expressed through comments and polls on DCP should be given SOME weight and value but CANNOT be relied upon to be scientifically accurate. You have NO scientific evidence to prove that it is and, again, by the nature of the beast alone, there is no way to truly govern polls on DCP to ensure that they are scientifically accurate - that in NOT what it is designed/built to do. But thanks for your (correct, of course) opinion. look, i know you took my post to you as me trying to start a flame war, but that wasn't my intention at all. the fact is, you were wrong, and theres no easy way to say that. you're more recent post if anything convinces me even more that you really just don't know what you are talking about. not that that is intended as an insult, if someone accused me of not knowing much about chinese grammar and vocabulary, or jet engine maintenance, or any of the other thousands of fields i know little or nothing about it wouldn't be an insult, it would just be the truth. and despite your working with statistics for web sites, you are shockingly unaware of the dynamics that operate between online communities and businesses. the fact that you keep going back to questioning the scientific validity of the number generated from the poll is telling here, because, as i've said before, it isn;t even relevant. this is why i think you're ignorant about the function of an online community, because you don't even grasp which numbers are important, and you are focusing on a sideline issue as the crux of your argument. to a pro who works in this field (and you don't, although i'd imagine you need to start learning about it) the most important numbers, as pertains to narration in dcp, are things like how many mentions does it get, how many threads is it on, how many responses does it get when its mentioned. the fact that someone has independently started a thread tracking how many other threads have been hijacked by the narration discussion is the most telling statistic of all. for someone who knows online communities, in the administrative sense, and produces metrics that generate actionable numbers, these are the real output, not the percentage of respondents who vote one way or another in a poll. i would track that, and when dealing with a client advise them that its a minor issue, and not where they need to focus most of their attention. you're looking at the wrong numbers here, and as long as your doing that you can't come up with any sensible observations. you should at least know that much, since you have experience in statistics. the most important part of getting good results out of an equation is using accurate and relevant numbers to generate your final product. you just aren't doing that, in this case. 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George Posted June 1, 2008 Share Posted June 1, 2008 blah blah blah... In other news... CADETS have 5 and a half minutes on the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Other Mike Posted June 2, 2008 Share Posted June 2, 2008 blah blah blah...In other news... CADETS have 5 and a half minutes on the field. Wow, Georgie, thats reminds me of your old RAMD days ! VERY Insightful as usual. Miss me much ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Posted June 2, 2008 Share Posted June 2, 2008 Of course. Hope you are well!! My point being -- we are debating poll science instead of discussing drum corps... Just seemed a good time to try and return the topic to drum corps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitedawn Posted June 2, 2008 Share Posted June 2, 2008 blah blah blah...In other news... CADETS have 5 and a half minutes on the field. a record for june 1. a HUGE record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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