Which 2009 World Class Finalist will not repeat?

[mcjordansc]

Aren't all odds 50/50 though?

Either it's going to happen, or it won't.

The smart ### in me, just HAD to post.

It would be obviously 50/50 if it was a flip of a coin or if there were two fairly evenly matched corps going for one position, but of course, that is not how it is. There are probably 6-8 corps going for 2-3 positions, so the odds are not necessarily 50/50. There are other corps that did not make finals last year who, in my opinion, have lower than 50/50 odds of making it next year. There may even be corps who made finals last year with lower than 50/50 odds of making finals. There are other corps who have far greater than 50/50 odds of making it, some are really, for all practical purposes, a sure thing. So, you might be a smart ###, but you are not good at setting odds. Remind me not to take gambling advice from you.

[Roark1]

Here's a fun little wrinkle, assume that one or two other corps besides Madison get in to finals.

A - Who will they be?

B - Who goes out?

[dbc03]

Well, BD and Crown will be vying for the championship (and I don't think any corps besides those 2 really will be able to overtake them), and Cadets, Cavaliers, Vanguard, and Phantom will all be in the mix for top 3/5. I don't think that Crossmen really have a shot at finals, but if I had to pick a corps out, it'd be Blue Knights. Their programs will be outdone over the next few years by some previously lower placing corps...in my opinion.

Ahh yes, none of the 3-5 corps from this year will ever be able to break into the drum corps elite and compete with Carolina Crown

[contrajedi8]

So the two corps that finished ahead of Madison have no shot to make finals?

Come on, folks. It's September.

Madison has released a list of names to try and generate some sort of excitement to get kids to come audition. And some of these names haven't designed a show since 1993. Now, I want to see the Scouts do well, too, and I think they will do better this year but lets not have a coronation here. There are two corps that finished ahead of them last year, one corps that made finals for the first time in a long time and isn't going to give it up lightly and a few corps that have been fixtures in finals for a long time now. A list of some big names isn't going to get Madison into by itself.

<sits back and waits for the typical 'contrajedi8 hates the scouts POW!' response>

[kickhaltsforlife]

So the two corps that finished ahead of Madison have no shot to make finals?

Come on, folks. It's September.

Madison has released a list of names to try and generate some sort of excitement to get kids to come audition. And some of these names haven't designed a show since 1993. Now, I want to see the Scouts do well, too, and I think they will do better this year but lets not have a coronation here. There are two corps that finished ahead of them last year, one corps that made finals for the first time in a long time and isn't going to give it up lightly and a few corps that have been fixtures in finals for a long time now. A list of some big names isn't going to get Madison into by itself.

<sits back and waits for the typical 'contrajedi8 hates the scouts POW!' response>

Lol.. this is actually quite a positive statement you got regarding the scouts... and the post actually makes sense, unlike the rest of this thread.

[Geneva]

... don't forget, they still have to put together a good corps... the names are great.. they can put out a great design I'm sure... but will it fit the corps they have, and will the instructional staff do it's job. It's not just the design team folks.

In my opinion, the top 15 are pretty close in talent. I think in the modern era of drum corps it is all about program and instruction.

[fecontra]

Whichever corps does a program entitled " Putting the cart before the horse "!

[Schickmeister]

I guarantee it won't be INT!

correct, sir. i predict INT will be somewhere in between 6th and 7th come finals night.

[NakedEye]

Care to explain how you got "70-80% chance they get back in top 12"?

Or did you just pull it out of you know where?

I'm not saying they won't be back in finals, I'm just interested in the factors you used to come to your numbers.

If you're looking for math or something from me - ain't gonna happen! I base this opinion on my knowledge and experience of how much of an impact a really strong staff can make. Madison was not an untalented corps last year, so they are not starting off from zero, plus new talent will be added and they will all be trained by a group who has produced championship shows. Although, as a unit, they haven't produced a field show in a while, they have been working together on shows of strong demand for over a decade and I think it leads to a high probability that they can train this group of kids to a level that could at least make 12th place. I mean, they weren't THAT far away from that this year.

[Geneva]

If you're looking for math or something from me - ain't gonna happen! I base this opinion on my knowledge and experience of how much of an impact a really strong staff can make. Madison was not an untalented corps last year, so they are not starting off from zero, plus new talent will be added and they will all be trained by a group who has produced championship shows. Although, as a unit, they haven't produced a field show in a while, they have been working together on shows of strong demand for over a decade and I think it leads to a high probability that they can train this group of kids to a level that could at least make 12th place. I mean, they weren't THAT far away from that this year.

This makes a lot of sense to me!