George Dixon

Best EARLY SEASON show/corps that ending up NOT winning?

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1 hour ago, Stu said:

Thank you for the compliment. It took a while to pick out the head to head shows and especially figuring out the average weekly rankings. So, I want to make sure I am understanding you correctly.

Starting on 7/16 they were ranked by averaging all scores nation wide as 7th, seven days later still 7th, seven days later 6th, seven days later back to 7th, seven days later 5th, (never besting any of the aforementioned corps head to head), and six not seven but six days later a huge leap in both score and rank to 1st, (only then beating them all in one swoop head to head), and again 1st the next day. So.... A) You do not see that as out of nowhere? and B) You truely think they made that large, huge, of improvement in six days when they were not able to do that at all in any of the previous five weeks?

That's your problem there (not meant to be snarky so I hope you don't take it that way). You're trying to compare scores from different shows. If you take DeKalb out of the mix (or even if you keep it in the mix), the only two corps all season Madison was behind, by significant margins, were BD and SCV. Again, they weren't in 5th a week before DCI, they were in 3rd (by a very slim margin) or 2nd (since BD wasn't there). The only corps SCV lost to all season were BD (all the but the final night) and Madison (only the last two nights). There's no reason at all to assume that SCV wasn't 2nd on 8/13, and it would be impossible for Madison to be 5th on that night with a 0.4 spread between Madison and SCV.

Another point. The only time, before finals week, Madison saw Garfield was that show on 8/3 where they lost by 0.1. Three nights later, Garfield beat Regiment (by 1.3) and Cavies (by 0.1), and were only 0.6 behind Star, so Madison could have also been 3rd on 8/6. It's also possible they could have been 6th. However, even if they were 6th on 8/6, they would have been less than a point out of 3rd.

While you can't compare scores from different shows, margins can be a more accurate way of comparing two or more groups.

Edited by queenanne_1536

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1 hour ago, queenanne_1536 said:

Thanks for posting the scores. It was fun to relive. There are, however, some problems with your analysis.

7/30. You are incorrectly assuming Scouts were 6th as of that date. Regiment defeated Star of Indiana two weeks earlier by 1.0 at DCM DeKalb. On 7/30, Star won DCI Canada (over Garfield and Cavies), and Madison beat Regiment at Whitewater. While it is possible, if all the top corps were together on 7/30 that the Scouts could have placed 6th, It's also just as possible that the Scouts could have placed as high as 3rd. We'll never know, because they weren't all together and you cannot compare scores from different shows.

8/6. Your 8/6 assumption that the Scouts were ranked 7th is potentially false. Up until that point, SCV had only lost to BD. It's doubtful four other corps would fall in the 1.8 gap between SCV and BD. But, it's possible.

8/13. This is where I think your assessment is really wrong. 0.4 separated SCV and Madison. Again, SCV had only lost to BD up until that point. Madison was without a shred of a doubt in 3rd place at that moment. I had a couple friends who marched SCV in '88 and '89, and in '89 one of them told me Gail Royer, after their show on 8/13, told them Madison was for real and would contend for the championship in Kansas City (whether he said something to that effect or not, I cannot verify, obviously). That's just what I was told. That same friend also said he thought they (SCV) were going to finish 4th at finals, behind BD, Madison and Garfield, so he said he surprised they finished 2nd. I'm not, their show was fantastic. 

And BD was no where to be found for Madison and SCV after 7/30. Therefore, we have no way of knowing whether BD would have come into finals undefeated if they had faced SCV and Madison along the way. If I had to guess, I would guess they probably would have remained unbeaten until at least 8/13. It could, were they there, have all changed that night, or SCV may have beaten them earlier. But, we will never know.

I think DCM was a complete #### show that year. I was there. There is no way in hell Madison should have placed 4th. Even Drum Corps World said they should have won DCM in their write up about the show. I dont't know if I agree with that, but they should have been right up there with Regiment and Star, if not ahead of Star, that night.

If you take the DCM debacle out of the equation there was never a moment in '88 where the Scouts weren't a threat to finish in the top 3. Not once. There was a point where they weren't a threat to finish top 2, but 3rd was a possibility from the get go. But, what was shocking, for those of us that witnessed the transition over the past couple weeks of the season was how a corps fighting for 3rd or 4th place transitioned into a champion. It was unbelievable That's what I was talking about when I said "raging inferno." I didn't say they came back from Europe in that state. I said the last few weeks of the season. Or last couple, in fact. You could just feel, in watching them, that something remarkable was about to happen. Their finals performance in '88 still ranks as the greatest I have ever seen in terms of pure energy. I went to finals that year hoping SCV would win (as I did in 85, and 86, and 87, and 89 and every year thereafter). On finals night, I wasn't left with a single doubt Madison would win, and that's the way I wanted it in the end.

 

No rebuttal commentary required other than see bold passage on whether or not my analysis, or yours, is 'extremely' biased.

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2 hours ago, queenanne_1536 said:

That's your problem there (not meant to be snarky so I hope you don't take it that way). You're trying to compare scores from different shows. If you take DeKalb out of the mix (or even if you keep it in the mix), the only two corps all season Madison was behind, by significant margins, were BD and SCV. Again, they weren't in 5th a week before DCI, they were in 3rd (by a very slim margin) or 2nd (since BD wasn't there). The only corps SCV lost to all season were BD (all the but the final night) and Madison (only the last two nights). There's no reason at all to assume that SCV wasn't 2nd on 8/13, and it would be impossible for Madison to be 5th on that night with a 0.4 spread between Madison and SCV.

Another point. The only time, before finals week, Madison saw Garfield was that show on 8/3 where they lost by 0.1. Three nights later, Garfield beat Regiment (by 1.3) and Cavies (by 0.1), and were only 0.6 behind Star, so Madison could have also been 3rd on 8/6. It's also possible they could have been 6th. However, even if they were 6th on 8/6, they would have been less than a point out of 3rd.

While you can't compare scores from different shows, margins can be a more accurate way of comparing two or more groups.

So lets do not use scores at all.  I spent the last hour re-evaluating the week to week rankings beginning on 7/9 plugging in this formula: (head to head 'placements', and if not possible, corps A beat corps B...then corps C beat corps A at a different show..but corps C did not see corps B that week... therefore the rank that week would be CAB). Granted there was 'some' guess work, but in that case tendencies of the movement of other corps were evaluated. By the way, up to Prelims, it should be noted that the Scouts never beat any of the aforementioned corps head to head. And here are the results using that refined formula

After returning from Europe the Scouts were weekly ranked 7th, 7th, 6th, 6th, 5th, then six days later 1st at Prelims/Finals. The only change was in the fourth week where they remained 6th instead of going back to 7th, And using that formula they still made a huge leap the last week beating all the aforementioned corps head to head which never occurred the previous five weeks.

Pleas note that this was all done, including the first set of rankings, with no desirable bias; it is not anywhere close to, "... and that is the way I wanted it in the end." or "There was no way in H###." or " A friend said..." or "A reporter said..." or "I feel..." or "You could just feel..." or "if you remove...." or "I was there and..." or "The greatest I have ever seen."........

Edited by Stu

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1 hour ago, Stu said:

After returning from Europe the Scouts were weekly ranked 7th, 7th, 6th, 6th, 5th, then six days later 1st at Prelims/Finals. The only change was in the fourth week where they remained 6th instead of going back to 7th, And using that formula they still made a huge leap the last week beating all the aforementioned corps head to head which never occurred the previous five weeks.

But THAT is simply inaccurate. I think I've stated my case above. You are simply off in your comparisons because you are comparing scores for different shows. You cannot do that. Only head-to-head matters. The one and only night of '88 that the Scouts could have conceivably been 7th (or lower) was at DCM Finals when they placed 4th. 

Also, again, they were not 5th 6 days before finals. They were third at worst, unless you think SCV was 4th on that date, or you think two corps would have placed between SCV's 94.3 and Madison's 93.9. 

Yes, they surged. I'm not arguing they didn't. But it's not like they were in 7th (or 5th) coming into finals and won. They were essentially even with SCV (the 2nd place corps) coming in. That is an absolute fact!

Surges have happened. In '87 Garfield stunned an undefeated SCV to win. I'm still not over that, even though '87 Garfield and '87 SCV are probably my two favorite shows of all time. In '92 Cadets were actually 6th coming into finals and finished 7th. In 1997, SCV started the season 10 points behind BD and tied them in Quarters. It happens. '88 isn't the only time it happened.

Edited by queenanne_1536

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1 hour ago, Stu said:

No rebuttal commentary required other than see bold passage on whether or not my analysis, or yours, is 'extremely' biased.

I love Madison, I won't lie, but I want Santa Clara to win almost every year. But, there are season's where a corps puts on such a magical show that I am happy that Santa Clara didn't win. '88 Madison was one of those years, as was 1990-1993 Star (even though they won only one of those years, I wanted them to win all four), as was 2000 Cadets, 2005 Cadets, 2008 Regiment and 2013 Crown. 

When magic strikes, like it did for Madison in '88 and Regiment in '96 and '08, and you realize you are watching something that rarely ever happens, and something so completely awesome, it's not hard to be happy about the outcome. Even though Santa Clara has my heart there are times when another corps puts something out there and that makes me want them to win. Crown '15 is another.

Let me ask you this - were you even in the stands at finals in '88? Or are you basing your surprise off a video of the performances? Very different live. Madison completely nuked that stadium. I've never seen a fan base react like that. 2008 was close.

Edited by queenanne_1536

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22 hours ago, Stu said:

 

 

Ok, in 1988 the Scouts either came back from Europe a raging inferno, vastly improved, and ready to be competitive enough to win; or… they came out of nowhere to win at Prelims and Finals in KC.

You and others Stu have crunched the numbers, but the Scouts and Trump still won.

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6 minutes ago, Ghost said:

You and others Stu have crunched the numbers, but the Scouts and Trump still won.

Never said otherwise. Never said they did not deserve to win. All that was shown was that the Scouts never beat any of the aforementioned corps until Prelims/Finals. They came out of nowhere. Nothing more nothing less.

Edited by Stu

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1 hour ago, Stu said:

I spent the last hour re-evaluating the week to week

Well, you wasted your time.

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Just now, Stu said:

Never said otherwise. Never said they did not deserve to win. All that was shown was that the Scouts never beat any of the aforementioned corps until Prelims/Finals. They came out of nowhere. Nothing more nothing less.

They never beat Santa Clara, Blue Devils or Garfield before finals. Their only loss to Garfield was by 0.1 a few weeks before. They were 0.4 behind SCV coming into finals. SCV had only lost to BD. So, they were top 3 coming into finals, for sure.

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Just now, queenanne_1536 said:

Well, you wasted your time.

Let the readers figure out on their own who is guided by bias and waisting their time.

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