A: Competitive Inertia

[Bruckner8]

Safe for another year. As I said a few weeks ago, Boston had more to worry about with corps below them. Blue Devils’ Competitive Inertia is too strong to “allow” Boston to win.  

I haven’t looked at the recap. The CI story is told in the spreads.

Two stories to follow next year: If Boston is at least as good, they’ll have a chance, since the CI will be switched on for them. 
 

Also, remember the affect SCV Alumni 2017 had on their membership? SCV won in 2018, and I’m convinced the alumni show played a small part. Bluecoats will be in that position next year. 
 

Finally, for CI to be debunked next season, a corps that has never been in the top 3 will have to win. Who is likely to do that? More fun is to ask who in that group is doing everything right, building inertia the right way? Mandarins? Colts? I have no clue lol

Cheers!

[MikeRapp]

4 minutes ago, Bruckner8 said:

Safe for another year. As I said a few weeks ago, Boston had more to worry about with corps below them. Blue Devils’ Competitive Inertia is too strong to “allow” Boston to win.  

I haven’t looked at the recap. The CI story is told in the spreads.

Two stories to follow next year: If Boston is at least as good, they’ll have a chance, since the CI will be switched on for them. 
 

Also, remember the affect SCV Alumni 2017 had on their membership? SCV won in 2018, and I’m convinced the alumni show played a small part. Bluecoats will be in that position next year. 
 

Finally, for CI to be debunked next season, a corps that has never been in the top 3 will have to win. Who is likely to do that? More fun is to ask who in that group is doing everything right, building inertia the right way? Mandarins? Colts? I have no clue lol

Cheers!

I thought the next corps to win their first medal would be Knights. Now I say Blue Stars.

[ironlips]

19 minutes ago, Bruckner8 said:

Safe for another year. As I said a few weeks ago, Boston had more to worry about with corps below them. Blue Devils’ Competitive Inertia is too strong to “allow” Boston to win.  

I haven’t looked at the recap. The CI story is told in the spreads.

Two stories to follow next year: If Boston is at least as good, they’ll have a chance, since the CI will be switched on for them. 
 

Also, remember the affect SCV Alumni 2017 had on their membership? SCV won in 2018, and I’m convinced the alumni show played a small part. Bluecoats will be in that position next year. 
 

Finally, for CI to be debunked next season, a corps that has never been in the top 3 will have to win. Who is likely to do that? More fun is to ask who in that group is doing everything right, building inertia the right way? Mandarins? Colts? I have no clue lol

Cheers!

There are some interesting theories here.

Were you present at Indy, or watching on Flo?

[MedicineMan]

After moving to Texas and getting a solid foot in SA ; I thought that the Crossmen would be one of the next corps to move into the top 8; and then to the top 5.   For many reasons this has not happened and after a very disappointing 2022 finish, it is unclear in what direction they will go in 2023.

[Bruckner8]

1 hour ago, ironlips said:

There are some interesting theories here.

Were you present at Indy, or watching on Flo?

Competitive Inertia doesn’t require anything except data. One needn’t watch a single show to demonstrate its consistency. I merely observe that certain corps are very consistent in leadership and excellence, and that consistency seems to help them when new blood gets very close. (Read the original post, where I predicted Crown would be next, then Bloo. I also gave props to Glassmen…whoops!)

As soon as Boston cleaned house and hired the super team, they jumped into the CI spotlight, and here we are. 

[MikeRapp]

9 hours ago, MedicineMan said:

After moving to Texas and getting a solid foot in SA ; I thought that the Crossmen would be one of the next corps to move into the top 8; and then to the top 5.   For many reasons this has not happened and after a very disappointing 2022 finish, it is unclear in what direction they will go in 2023.

I thought Blue Knights would climb into that top tier. Clearly didn’t happen.

Blue Stars seem like the next logical candidate. They will need to take the next step in their brass and percussion, which starts with recruiting.

[Precious Roy]

So, I would assume that a corps' competitive inertia can become "reset" after some period of time outside of the top 3, top 5, or top "whatever."

Post #1 in this topic, from 2007, includes Madison as an example of a top corps (as it was at that time). Obviously, Madison's CI ran out, or reset, some time between then and now, and they would have to reestablish it before they could make a push for another title. Correct?

Just curious, @Bruckner8, if the data shows what that "reset point" would be. Could Phantom or Cavies jump directly to #1 next year, or would they also have to make a top 3 first?

[bkbass98]

On 3/21/2008 at 8:31 PM, idontwan2know said:

Talent is so overrated. Or at least talent as it is usually defined. Playing Carnival of Venice in an audition room bears only passing resemblence to what it takes to perform on the drum corps field at the top level.

I know I’m quoting a post from 14 years ago, but this one got me good as I read this thread today for the first time ever.

Edited August 14, 2022 by bkbass98

[ironlips]

11 hours ago, Bruckner8 said:

Competitive Inertia doesn’t require anything except data. One needn’t watch a single show to demonstrate its consistency. I merely observe that certain corps are very consistent in leadership and excellence, and that consistency seems to help them when new blood gets very close. (Read the original post, where I predicted Crown would be next, then Bloo. I also gave props to Glassmen…whoops!)

As soon as Boston cleaned house and hired the super team, they jumped into the CI spotlight, and here we are. 

"...that consistency seems to help them when new blood gets very close."

I agree wholeheartedly. Staff consistency in key positions over 30+ seasons is why the current champion continues to enjoy success. Canton and Crown are following this plan, too. Boston has found a superb team and their long-term success depends on a similar approach.

Some others have yet to learn this technique, or have decided not to employ it for some other reason. This is not a formula for success over the long haul.

And what will happen when all the staffs are great? The entire activity rises, though we will still have to find gradations between the teams. That is in the hands of the performers.

Bruckner 8 is likewise correct that the Inertia/Entropy data drives conclusions here. But if one wishes to know the "why" in addition to the "what" of long term trends, a deeper dive is necessary to tease this out. That's where observing the shows (in addition to crunching the numbers) comes in.

[Bruckner8]

9 hours ago, Precious Roy said:

So, I would assume that a corps' competitive inertia can become "reset" after some period of time outside of the top 3, top 5, or top "whatever."

Post #1 in this topic, from 2007, includes Madison as an example of a top corps (as it was at that time). Obviously, Madison's CI ran out, or reset, some time between then and now, and they would have to reestablish it before they could make a push for another title. Correct?

Yes, that original post even contains the line "Two are gone, and the other two are back on the ladder, basically starting over." The two starting over then (in 2007) were Troopers and Blue Stars, but yes, one could now add Madison to that, and Cavaliers, and Cadets! All of them starting over. But make no mistake: The entire activity WANTS Madison, Troop, Cavies, and Cadets to be competitive (Think of that WANT as a small part of what drives the Inertia.) What would happen if it's very close between, say Blue Stars and Cadets, or Blue Stars and Cavaliers? AND, we have still have judges who "loved" Cavies and Cadets during their TOP 3 runs? If it's close, CI says the tie goes to the corps that has done if before! (The corps with the most inertia gets the thin margin score over the newcomer. It's human nature, again, from my perspective in forming this "theory.")

14 hours ago, Precious Roy said:

Just curious, @Bruckner8, if the data shows what that "reset point" would be. Could Phantom or Cavies jump directly to #1 next year, or would they also have to make a top 3 first?

They've both had major changes in leadership, design, and teaching staff, so one might think that a complete reset is in order, to thus conclude that a jump to #1 is VERY unlikely for either corps anytime soon, without first coming in 2nd or 3rd again. But as I said above, there exist judges that LOVE the history (inertia), LOVE that some staff is still intact (Martins at Cavies...inertia), etc, so in a close race, and enough suck from current contenders, it could happen. I'd have to look at all the data when it does happen, lol.