Finals Prediction 2008

[Fastone]

Keith does make a good point, these are his predictions. I don't believe them to be accurate either however, he has a right to his opinion. If they come out right, he's a genius, if they come out wrong, he's someone who didn't pick right, no more no less. To argue with him about his opinion won't change it, make your own prediction or like I do read the thread and laugh.

[CallipygianKing]

(Since I have no horse in the race. I will be pulling for:

Hurricanes, Renagades, Kilties - Sun Devils, Chops Inc.)

BUT GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!

Gracias.

[Dale Bari]

I see the corps in groups first.

Top Group:

Bucs

Next Threesome:

Hurcs

Cabs

ES

Close on their heels:

Brigs

Bush

MBI

Pushing Higher:

CV

Renegades

Cru

Kilties

MCL

A Class knocking on the Open Finals’ door:

Alliance

Chops

Dream

Other A contenders:

Govies

Fusion

White Sabers

Standing in good stead:

Carolina

Grennies

LSM

Sun Devils

Shenandoah

Gulf Coast

Frontier

OK, so some corps can break free of a group and pull into an upper one. I base most of my thoughts on experience and head-to-head competition. No corps has beaten Bucs, nor does any seem likely to.

Hurcs and Cabs have traded places, but ES hasn't bested either of them yet. Brigs & Bush have traded places, and MBI is a big mystery, in those terms.

CV and Cru met once, with CV coming out on top by about 3. Kilties and MCL have not met. MCL was down to CV by a little more than 4. And Renegades haven't met anyone, except Dream.

Alliance essentially tied MCL, so that puts them close to Open Finals, but not in, because MCL isn't a Finalist either yet. Dream scored very close to Renegades out west, so I put them here based on that. Chops beat Govies (A runners-up last year) twice recently, so I put them in this group based on that.

Govies are always a contender for Class A. Fusion Core has put in solidly improving numbers, and White Sabers made a big jump up recently.

The rest of the A corps have jumped around with a somewhat chaotic schedule, and the possible permutations begin to stagger the mind. Based upon first-hand viewings, experience, and knowing how judges can be, I believe that almost anything can happen below the first couple of spots, esp in the Class A corps.

Then, like picking your brackets for the NCAA Basketball tournament, there comes the time to judge which corps will be Cinderellas: Will ES make an anniversary surge? Does Bush have a fifth gear in their vehicle again this year? What ninja stealth surprise does Renegades have ready? Can Cru beat history for a change? Will Alliance do the (up-to-now) impossible?

So, now for my predictions… (Sorry, but you have to wait for some post after my next one.)

Edited August 6, 2008 by Dale Bari

[KeithHall]

I got you all talking....my intent.

I won't be the genius but I do think that ES will take it in the end.

[melligene]

I got you all talking....my intent.

I won't be the genius but I do think that ES will take it in the end.

Ah.......could you rephrase that please. We know what you meant but you might want to re-read your post.

Edited August 6, 2008 by melligene

[Dale Bari]

Ah.......could you rephrase that please. We know what you meant but you might want to re-read your post.

Well, it may be true in another sense - if ES doesn't win, some fans may still think they took it in the end.

[clonnyandbyde]

I won't be the genius but I do think that ES will take it in the end.

nicely put

is this a wish poll or a prediction poll?

now we know why people are asked to back-up their statements with $

it kinda changes your outlook.

since im not betting either youll have to figure out if it is a wish list or a genuine prediction

my top10 predictions

bucs

mbi

reneg

hurcs

cabs

es

bush

brigs

cv

mcl

most east corps are are leaving the door wide open this season for opportunity - scores and spreads are irrelevant

there is a big sweet spot for mbi and renegades to move into

i am guessing they have been tweaking their programming to be more competitive this year.

the gap between 2nd and 8th is very small and much will happen there.

rank first then rate.

in some cases the spread wont be large as the should be

look for guard caption and visual to be key for mbi or renegades success or failure

[Dale Bari]

most east corps are are leaving the door wide open this season for opportunity - scores and spreads are irrelevant

there is a big sweet spot for mbi and renegades to move into

i am guessing they have been tweaking their programming to be more competitive this year.

the gap between 2nd and 8th is very small and much will happen there.

rank first then rate.

in some cases the spread wont be large as the should be

look for guard caption and visual to be key for mbi or renegades success or failure

Those may very well all be true. The one thing that cuts against MBI & Renegades (and I'm no genius for figuring this out) is their lack of critiques with the judges who will see them in Finals/Prelims.

[Dale Bari]

I think it's safe to say that 8 corps are definitely in Finals:

Bucs, Hurcs, Cabs, ES, MBI, Brigs, Bush, Renegades. (and about in that order too.)

The real drama resides in the last two Open Finals spots, which may be taken by an A corps, and the Class A Finals. So of the next five corps, who gets into Open finals: CV, Cru, Kilties, MCL, Alliance (who has the only realistic chance of the A corps)?

CV and Cru are returning Finalists. Cru has not beaten CV in several years. Kilties have only ever beaten Cru out for Finals once (1998). OTOH, Kilties only finished 5 points back of MBI recently, which is only 1 point more than how far Cru was behind Brigs. MCL and Alliance were more than 4 points behind CV, who had bested Cru by only 3 earlier this season. So, I think CV is in.

Now, it comes down to Cru or Kilties for 10th. History and experience give Cru the edge. Sentimentality and momentum from last season give Kilties an advantage.

Alliance is a lock for Class A Finals. Dream was a Finalist last year, and by all reports are even better this year, so Dream is in too. Chops and Govies are prior A champs. Then there's Fusion Core, the new corps on the block. White Sabers (finalists in '06) are a dark horse. Who to choose?

Open Finals:

Bucs - too tough to catch, look out for #4

Hurcs - hopefully this rarified air won't choke them

ES - anniversary surge nets them one place

Cabs - on familiar territory here

MBI - can't crack the highest echelon against these corps

Brigs - not enough oomph to hold off MBI this year

Renegades - 7th will please their dark overlords

Bush - more horsepower needed this year

CV - better than ever doesn't get them higher than ever

Cru - make it in by the skin of their teeth

-----

Kilties - edged out by less than a point.

A Finals:

Alliance - second time finalist, first time champs

Dream - getting closer

Chops - former champs back in Finals

Fusion - no sophomore slump

-------

Govies - out by a gnat's eyelash.

I think the final push comes from being seen more times by the judges. Cru and Fusion get that edge over their competitors.

Disclaimer: based upon information gathered up until this point in time. Unless/until some corps can prove they can overtake the corps ahead of them, this is the way I see it.

Edited August 7, 2008 by Dale Bari

[Fred Windish]

Dale,

You're doing a REALLY nice job with your analysis and predictions. I'm enjoying it!

Thanks for your courage and willingness to provide viewpoints that are sure to attract interest in DCP.