Finals Week Prediction Thread!

[RockyGranite]

It's that magical fairy score dust that DCI sprinkles on the field. Come Finals week, the same performance that was worth a 93 the Saturday before will be worth 98 on Finals night.

(Go back and look at the scores archives over the years. Finals week scores are expected to top out at 97.5+ for the champs, followed by the rest of the spreads. Clearly the calendar is dictating the number more than any actual sort of empirical methodology.)

What's REALLY funny is that if you took that 98 point finals performance and gave it in late June, the same judges would say it was worth 79.

In terms of the predictions, the OP nails mine pretty much exactly, so I'll just give that prediction a second. The only changes I'd LIKE to see are Vanguard jumping over PR and Cadets into the 3 spot, and Cavaliers finding a way to close up the gap with Canton, but I'm doubtful either will happen.

It's THIS (and other) aspects of the scoring system that makes it hard for me to come to terms with this whole drum corps competition thing.

Oh well, final scores certainly won't prevent me from enjoying the performances...but I hope DCI sprinkles a bit extra dust on the field when BK goes OTL.

[Wadep66]

If BD gets this show 2009/2010 clean, I would not be surprised to see the 99.15 fall on Saturday.

They would have to win almost every caption (Cadets did in 2005 to get that score), score perfectly in almost everyone they win. I don't think they'll win brass or percussion. Anythings possible though.

[DCFAN]

For Crossmen it's not over until next Friday. In 2008 Crossmen beat Madison all season and left Allentown with a .95 edge going into quarters. At Quarters Madison jumped Crossmen by .35 and went on to make finals. Looking at last nights results Crossmen were .9 behind Blue Stars. So I would not count them out yet!

[SFZFAN]

For Crossmen it's not over until next Friday. In 2008 Crossmen beat Madison all season and left Allentown with a .95 edge going into quarters. At Quarters Madison jumped Crossmen by .35 and went on to make finals. Looking at last nights results Crossmen were .9 behind Blue Stars. So I would not count them out yet!

I wouldn't either. The Crossmen have a much more entertaining show.

[proudTXmom]

To quote Will Smith: I ain't heard no fat lady!

Go Bones!

[mikespeed]

If BD gets this show 2009/2010 clean, I would not be surprised to see the 99.15 fall on Saturday.

BD is definitely going to win, but if this becomes the highest scoring show of all time, I won't spend another dime on the activity.

[MotorCityMusician]

BD is definitely going to win, but if this becomes the highest scoring show of all time, I won't spend another dime on the activity.

little harsh. thats like saying if Crown wins ill never go to a show again.

[skywhopper]

I don't know enough to make any predictions, but I wonder if you could help me to learn more by answering a question:

What makes you think BD, CC and PR will see 3 point jumps from their Allentown scores? Do you expect a great improvement in their performances?

Others have answered this but the scores do go up each day of finals performance. Judges aren't necessarily saying performances are getting that much cleaner. Caption scores are all relative anyway. On Finals night, it's impossible to score higher, so if the judges are confident the current corps is the best on the field, they can assign 10.0s and often do. Plus, with fewer corps in the show, they take advantage of room at the top and the bottom to spread the scores out, with corps in the bottom half of the finals group usually seeing their scores level out or drop on finals night.

Looking back over the past few years, three points is the typical gain over the last week (data from corpsreps):

       -1w           Finals
2011   BD 95.25      CD 98.35
2010   BD 95.8       BD 98.9
2009   BD 95.75      BD 99.05
2008   CV 95.9       PR 98.125
2007*  CD 95.125     BD 98.0   
2006   CV 95.575     CV 97.2
2005   CD 96.225     CD 99.15
2004** BD 96.05      CV 98.7
2003   BD 95.45      BD 98.8

* The show a week before finals was DCI West in Stanford
** The show a week before finals was DCI Midwest in Indy

Edited August 5, 2012 by skywhopper

[skywhopper]

Any chance Oregon squeaks into Semis? Seems like they've dominated BDB and SCVC when they've met.

[barigirl78]

I wouldn't either. The Crossmen have a much more entertaining show.

I watched Crossmen, Blue Stars and Blue Knights very closely on Saturday night. They are very close. Very close. It is possible for the Crossmen to overtake either one of them.

If you examine the recaps, it also may depend on who the judges are. I noticed one Music GE judge thought the Knights were better than the Crossmen by 0.5. The other thought the Crossmen were better than the Knights by 0.3. That's a swing of 0.8.

One Music GE judge thought the Blue Stars were 0.7 better than the Crossmen. The other thought the gap was only 0.1.

The GE visual scores were more consistent between the judges, but even there, the gap between Crossmen and Blue Stars was much closer for one judge than another.

As long as General Effect judges see things differently from individual to individual, that caption can account for many differences in any given show.

In the Visual caption, Crossmen and Blue Stars were just 0.05 apart. In the Music captions, things were tighter than they were in Atlanta.