BRASSO Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 (edited) Also, the question posed by the OP is " why are the Bluecoats already being counted out of the top " The title does not ask, " near the top ?", it asks us.. " the top ? ". As such, I would think the most appropriate answer.. and the shortest answer too... as to why nobody so far as predicted them " at the top " this year is because never in their long DCI history have they finished at " the top ". Now maybe they come out on top this summer, but at least a historical rationale has been provided to the OP thread title question now it would seem to me. Edited May 4, 2015 by BRASSO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post perc2100 Posted May 4, 2015 Popular Post Share Posted May 4, 2015 After reading through the 2015 predictions thread I've noticed that not many people are counting on the Bluecoats to be top 3 or even win DCI this year. I'm just curious as to why this is? It looks as if the Bluecoats have the same exact staff this year. You would think they would be better than they were last year. After hearing rumors about the show I honestly hope they are true. And also after seeing a video of them in January marching, they look like they have a whole lot stronger visual program this year.. Anyone care to explain? I'll bite: Bluecoats have never won DCI; they have won silver only once in their history, and have placed Top 3 only twice in the history. The last time Bluecoats placed 3rd, they dropped all the way to 7th the following year; in the last ten competitive season, Bluecoats have averaged placing 5th. That is awesome, and they are always an interesting corps for me: even if I don't really like their production, I always like aspects of what they do, and I think they have a good design team that isn't afraid to take risks. That all being said, to put Bluecoats in Top 3, or even in 1st, as a prediction preseason that means someone has to drop out: not just "someone," but a DCI Champion who knows what it takes to win. Corps like: * Blue Devils: they have not placed lower than 4th since 1991; haven't placed lower than 2nd since their Bronze medal in 2006; have won DCI 16 times, including 5/8 seasons. They've averaged 1.8th place the last decade, and betting against them is not logical * The Cadets: 10 Time DCI Champion, including 2 of the last 10 seasons. Bluecoats did a great job beating Cadets last year at Finals, but historically Cadets have been consistently better averaging 3rd place in 10 seasons. They haven't placed lower than 5th since 1991. VERY strong contender, and while not as consistent as BD, clearly knows how to compete for Championship annually and is formidable at the top. * SCV: 6 Time DCI Champion, though not since 1999; has been rising up the ranks the last several years, in particular the last couple; while they have had some issues over the last decade (including an all-time worst 8th place in 2005), they have still averaged 5.7 - not too far behind Bluecoats; While I think they are obviously more 'beatable' than Cadets & BD, they are still a threat * Crown: only two seasons removed from their first DCI Championship; their 5th place finish last season was their worst since 2007; they've finished Top 2 3/6 previous seasons, meaning (IMO), they have proven more consistent recently, their last season's misstep withstanding * Cavaliers: have struggled ever since staff turnover after their 2006 Championship, but seem to be on the uptick; they have momentum going for them (as do Bluecoats), and have staff that has won DCI multiple times & know what it takes design-wise and instruction wise to win. * Phantom Regiment: up-and-down but 2-time DCI Champion with their last win less than a decade ago. Phantom, IMO, is a wild-card that could be Top 3 or 7th place in any given year; to be honest so are Bluecoats (though Bluecoats have been more consistent recently). If we want to break this down even further to captions: * Brass: BD and Crown are consistently amazing with everyone else obviously/noticeably beneath those two. It would take gargantuan strides for any corps to outscore either one of these two programs in Brass in the last several seasons, and nothing is likely to change with that * Percussion: Rennick at SCV brings huge talent pool on both ends of the caption (performance & design). BD, Cadets are often in the hunt recently. Bluecoats also have outstanding percussion (and brass), but it's TOUGH to beat all of those proven Championship-winning programs * Visual: this is Bluecoats weakest caption, and seemingly has been consistently. Last year they were 4th in proficiency and 5th in Guard. So Bluecoats have been close in brass and percussion without being able to get over the hump of 3rd (at least recently I think): they've certainly never won, but have been close in both caption. Visual, they are not in the ballpark of winning and they would have to make HUGE strides there (would that come at the expense of music captions? Doesn't have to, but you never know if you put everything into one caption others could slip in quality). Breaking down just captions Bluecoats are kind of close but have major obstacles in their way: not the least of which are amazing corps competing against them! So really what I'm saying is DCI is pretty stacked with talent. It's easy for a fan to give the benefit of the doubt to a corps that has already won DCI (something all six corps have done, with 5/6 winning a DCI Championship since 2006!) rather than a corps that has not. I think realistically it's not crazy to think Bluecoats can be Top 3 again. Bluecoats won 0 sub-captions last season, and IIRC Bluecoats have NEVER won any captions at DCI Finals before. Crown had won High Brass a few times before winning DCI, so at least they had a very recent history of Championship brass that helped propel the corps to the Gold: Bluecoats do not. For them to win, EVERYONE ELSE needs to be worse than Bluecoats, and with the consistency of Blue Devils I personally find that implausible at this time. I think it's more like Cadets will come out VERY strong with a chip on their shoulder, and they will be duking it out for the Gold with BD. I think Crown placing 5th last year was more an anomaly (i.e. a misstep of a show design) and they will be fighting others for a Top 3 spot. I think Bluecoats could be Top 3, but I think it's easier to guess that: 1/2 - Blue Devils & Cadets 3/4/5/6 - Crown, SCV, Bluecoats, Cavaliers - REAL fun competition for us fans! I think Cavaliers will likely be on the lower end of this 'tier,' but you never know. I think Bluecoats can be as high as 3rd or as low as 6th because this is such an incredibly talented and competitive group of corps. Phantom could also duke it out for Top 6 obviously. Really, DCI has an incredibly consistent, amazing Top 7, with 8th-14 also being very good! But the short answer to the OP's question is TONS of consistent, DCI Champion talent and Bluecoats are just amazing w/no Championships. Even Crown, with their show/placement last year likely gets the benefit of the doubt because A) they're won DCI very recently and B) they have a Championship caliber brass program that has contended/won the Ott trophy a TON the last several years. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tobias Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 ^^^ well he summed it up perfectly and based his excellent post with facts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRASSO Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 (edited) Also, after Crown actually won their DCI Title in 2013, many people said that following offseason, that they would fail to repeat last season. And those fans that predicted some level of placement slide for Crown, were proven right as it turns out in that prediction. So there is some historical precedent here for a Corps to have an outlier year ( or 2 ) before returning to their nominal pecking order placement position we are accustomed to finding them in... and for DCP'ers to relie on that as their guide on these things. The Cavaliers, for example, fell out of the Cadevaliers Trifecta, but my guess is, they have a decent chance of returning the time tested Cadevaliers trifecta from its recent two spoke work, to its customary 3 spoke work. If not this season, perhaps in the next. Edited May 4, 2015 by BRASSO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ContraCoats Posted May 4, 2015 Author Share Posted May 4, 2015 As the person who made this topic i would like to apologize for creating such big controversy. I love the Bluecoats. I've always been a fan and maybe my opinion is a bit biased. After hearing many things about the 2015 Bluecoats I am certain they will not make a huge drop and will continue with their momentum. I have not heard their brass yet but from what I have heard they are once again amazing. And like I said the visual program definitely looks to be much improved! Let's hope design is the same if not better than last year! Sorry for such a controversial topic! -CC 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anstig Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 The only thing I hope the bluecoats drop next year is the bass. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cappybara Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 The only thing I hope the bluecoats drop next year is the bass. All corps use a lot of extra bass. It's just inevitable now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim K Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 (edited) All corps use a lot of extra bass. It's just inevitable now. Well if Meghan Trainor is to be belief, it's all about the bass, about the bass, about the bass. Edited May 5, 2015 by Tim K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anstig Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Well if Meghan Trainor is to be belief, it's all about the bass, about the bass, about the bass. Can't wait for more base drops in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
va9590jm Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 As the person who made this topic i would like to apologize for creating such big controversy. I love the Bluecoats. I've always been a fan and maybe my opinion is a bit biased. After hearing many things about the 2015 Bluecoats I am certain they will not make a huge drop and will continue with their momentum. I have not heard their brass yet but from what I have heard they are once again amazing. And like I said the visual program definitely looks to be much improved! Let's hope design is the same if not better than last year! Sorry for such a controversial topic! -CC Oh, don't be sorry! I don't really think its THAT controversial of a topic, and its a very good conversation that deserves its time here on DCP. There are some great points that can be brought up on both sides of the topic, and in general, this is a great conversation that we are having here! Much of the same that is said here could be said for a number of corps, such as "why aren't the Blue Knights being heavily considered for the top 6?" or "Why are the Colts not being heavily considered to be in finals?" And again, much for the same reasons that we are discussing for the Bluecoats. I say, don't apologize, but enjoy the great conversation we are having here! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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