bgg80 Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 (edited) 8 hours ago, 27Socal said: Oh it be. The last head to head for Chumley between BD and BC in VA was Atlanta. He had BC up by .1 And ... BD improved significantly since Atlanta. Cleaned their movement. Refined their ensemble sets and structure. Added visual “accents”/feature to the show. Guard cleans/adds. Chumley noticed, and judged that growth vs BC and others accordingly. Why else would he “flip” from July 20-something until now? Historical data is certainly relevant. But the farther back you go in history (in this case a season) the less reliable you get. Corps’ performance level and show growth/moves/adds/changes factor in. Here’s the thing ... you mentioned being off by 1 point is impressive given your model was 99% accurate. But your same data will tell you that BD and BC were within .5 or less .... and .2x or less in the final few weeks... all season. So calling a 1 point gap for Finals, statistically, is waaaay off. Edited August 11, 2019 by bgg80 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garfield Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 (edited) 19 minutes ago, bgg80 said: And ... BD improved significantly since Atlanta. Cleaned their movement. Refined their ensemble sets and structure. Added visual “accents”/feature to the show. Guard cleans/adds. Chumley noticed, and judged that growth vs BC and others accordingly. Why else would he “flip” from July 20-something until now? Historical data is certainly relevant. But the farther back you go in history (in this case a season) the less reliable you get. Corps’ performance level and show growth/moves/adds/changes factor in. Here’s the thing ... you mentioned being off by 1 point is impressive given your model was 99% accurate. But your same data will tell you that BD and BC were within .5 or less .... and .2x or less, all season. So calling a 1 point gap for Finals, statistically, is waaaay off. Because MATH! 15 yard penalty for using ACTUAL math and not that "Common Corps" crap. Edited August 11, 2019 by garfield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bgg80 Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, DrumManTx said: Just like that, it's over. Wow. What a season. What a night. What a quarterfinals. What a semifinals. What a finals. What a fight for the top. Awestruck at the talent from top to bottom this year. Here's my thoughts on finals week. Thanks for another amazing season, I'm probably gonna sign off for the most part for awhile. Life is about to get crazy, but I had fun following the season again with you all. For me, a highlight of the season is reading your review day after Finals. You’re the best reviewer in the business 😉 Thank you 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeRapp Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, garfield said: And my Knoxvillian brother is starting trials, too. What are you guys drinking in TN? It’s just a numbers game. Nashville is growing at a rate of 100 newcomers a day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeRapp Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 When do we institute instant replay in DCI? lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 8 hours ago, FlamMan said: Jeff P. needs his head examined. Haven't read all the posts, but here are the percussion Achievement scores for the three nights. Pre. SCV 9.9 Sem. SCV 9.8 Fin. BD 10.0 CC 9.8 BC 9.75 SCV 9.9 BD 9.75 BD 9.65 BC 9.75 Nice jump for BD from Semis and no change for BC. Without proof, I still feel judges, especially at finals, have checked before Semis and Finals what their associates gave for scores the previous nights in their discipline. Judges are very good at knowing the numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 9 hours ago, Poppycock said: No one beats BD! No one Let's see 73, 74, 75, 78, 81, 83, 84, 85, 87,88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 95, 98, 00, 01, 02, 04, 05, 06, 08, 11, 13, 16, & 18. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 9 hours ago, Poppycock said: I heard all the smack talk and snarky comments about BD. How do you like us now? As we all read the same "smack talk and snarky comments" about Boston's guard last night. How do you like them now? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeRapp Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 47 minutes ago, bgg80 said: And ... BD improved significantly since Atlanta. Cleaned their movement. Refined their ensemble sets and structure. Added visual “accents”/feature to the show. Guard cleans/adds. Chumley noticed, and judged that growth vs BC and others accordingly. Why else would he “flip” from July 20-something until now? Historical data is certainly relevant. But the farther back you go in history (in this case a season) the less reliable you get. Corps’ performance level and show growth/moves/adds/changes factor in. Here’s the thing ... you mentioned being off by 1 point is impressive given your model was 99% accurate. But your same data will tell you that BD and BC were within .5 or less .... and .2x or less in the final few weeks... all season. So calling a 1 point gap for Finals, statistically, is waaaay off. Everyone improved significantly since then. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bgg80 Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ghost said: Let's see 73, 74, 75, 78, 81, 83, 84, 85, 87,88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 95, 98, 00, 01, 02, 04, 05, 06, 08, 11, 13, 16, & 18. Well when you put it THAT way ..... 😂 What's more impressive to me: Of those 29 "losses", 19 were medalists (2 or 3), 10 were silver medalists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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