Does no WGI = no DCI for 2021 (Hypothetical)?

[E3D]

13 hours ago, Jeff Ream said:

the now 3 people i know that died from it were under 50. one just turned 40

Statistically speaking you must live in a hot bed of Covid-19. I reside in 3 largest populated city in the USA and I don't know anyone who died from it. Then again the percentages of death for this per million per 100 thousand is off the charts in the North East. The disparity of deaths per cases is shocking. 

Edited August 23, 2020 by E3D

[garfield]

13 hours ago, Jeff Ream said:

the now 3 people i know that died from it were under 50. one just turned 40

 

43 minutes ago, E3D said:

Statistically speaking you must live in a hot bed of Covid-19. I reside in 3 largest populated city in the USA and I don't know anyone who died from it. Then again the percentages of death for this per million per 100 thousand is off the charts in the North East. The disparity of deaths per cases is shocking. 

I agree.  I let this roll off because there’s no way to disprove it.  But, wow, the odds are quite long.

Sorry to you, Jeff, if you called them friends.

I don’t know anyone who’s had it, much less died from it.

Of course, I have only nine friends and one of them is the dog.  So, what do I know?

[skevinp]

1 minute ago, garfield said:

I agree.  I let this roll off because there’s no way to disprove it.  But, wow, the odds are quite long.

Sorry to you, Jeff, if you called them friends.

I don’t know anyone who’s had it, much less died from it.

Of course, I have only nine friends and one of them is the dog.  So, what do I know?

You might now.  After 5 months of sheltering, mask wearing, and social distancing, I now have fever, chills, body aches, headaches, and fatigue.  If I went to all that trouble and end up dying anyway, I’m going to be really ticked off.  

[garfield]

21 minutes ago, skevinp said:

You might now.  After 5 months of sheltering, mask wearing, and social distancing, I now have fever, chills, body aches, headaches, and fatigue.  If I went to all that trouble and end up dying anyway, I’m going to be really ticked off.  

You could have been having a ball this whole time!  Aagghhhh!

Funny, all of the symptoms you have are also identified as a hangover.

Have you been lubricating your confidence again?

 

Seriously, if you’re serious, you ####-well better be typing this from the gurney outside the ER.

Unless you’re actually twelve years old, in which case you’ll be fine (And that would help explain a lot of other things, too. 😆).

Edited August 23, 2020 by garfield

[N.E. Brigand]

1 hour ago, E3D said:

Statistically speaking you must live in a hot bed of Covid-19. I reside in [the third] largest populated city in the USA and I don't know anyone who died from it. Then again the percentages of death for this per million per 100 thousand is off the charts for the North East. The disparity of deaths per cases is shocking. 

Like you and garfield, I don't know anyone personally who has died of Covid, for which I am grateful.

It's not that the disease was more deadly in the northeast. It's that a lot more people were infected in the northeast and were never tested. Remember how few tests were being conducted back then? It wasn't until March 17th that we conducted more than 10,000 tests in a day in this country. There were only three days prior to April 1st on which we had tested more than 100,000 people. There were only two days before May 1st on which we conducted more than 200,000 tests. Back on April 10th* I said we needed to be doing about 1,000,000 tests per day; later, when that seemed hopeless, I scaled back and called for an average of just 750,000 tests per day. We've never reached a million tests (the most was 926,000 on July 24th), and it wasn't until July 10th that we had a day with more than 750,000 tests. Over the past two weeks we've averaged 714,000 tests per day.

I still think we should do more, because as many people have said since at least March, widespread testing (and subsequent isolating of those who test positive or have been exposed to someone who tested positive) is a huge part of how you control the outbreak. But even if our current numbers are inadequate, just imagine if we'd been conducting as many tests then as we are now: 75 times more tests than we were conducting for most of March. We would have found a LOT more Covid cases in the northeast, and that region's fatality rate would be much lower, right in line with what we're generally seeing elsewhere now. The virus was already circulating in the northeast (having arrived in New York from Europe sometime in January) before anybody realized it was here. It helped the rest of the country that a number of other states in March took steps then, with very few reported cases, to at least partially lock down for a while, but it was already too late for much of the northeast. New York City was hit so badly that there are parts of that city that actually may have achieved herd immunity.**

(For a while, there was an argument circulating that the reason deaths were so high in New York was its policies regarding Covid and nursing homes. Even I thought so. But nursing homes in a number of other states with different policies have gotten slammed as well. As of July 10th, for instance, 40% of Texas cases were in nursing homes.)

.

*And back on March 13th, I wrote this: "However, the CDC's worst-case estimates are that anywhere between 200,000 and 1.7 million Americans could die of COVID-19. But a MAJOR point to remember is that those estimates assume no change in behavior or official response. Taking steps like closing schools and crowded events will make a huge difference."

We're easily going to surpass that 200,000. Nobody on DCP at the time was claiming that 200,000 American deaths would be acceptable, and I doubt anyone in the country argued that in March or April. Rather, some people here were arguing that it would never happen and that it was irresponsible for people to offer such predictions. If I recall correctly, someone here even said, in response to one such citation, that it made them suspect the CDC had been co-opted by hysterics spreading disinformation. But now polls find that, depending on the group being surveyed, as many as 57% say that our current death toll of 175,000 is acceptable.

That's just unfathomable to me.

.

**Here's an ironic tidbit: the most hard hit part of the country was a neighborhood in Queens named...

Corona.

Edited August 23, 2020 by N.E. Brigand
Typo.

[JimF-LowBari]

Not aware that I know anyone who has or had had Covid. Just a scare with 3 year old grandniece but she came back negative. But retired and only one connection to work place. And workplace has been doing the job from home for about 5 months so person info not availible.

Do live few blocks from hospital with drive thru Covid testing. When open almost always see cars in the lot. This morning they were lined up hour before opening 

Edited August 23, 2020 by JimF-LowBari

[E3D]

8 minutes ago, skevinp said:

You might now.  After 5 months of sheltering, mask wearing, and social distancing, I now have fever, chills, body aches, headaches, and fatigue.  If I went to all that trouble and end up dying anyway, I’m going to be really ticked off.  

I hope you feel better. My best friend just got over it 2 weeks ago. He never really got serious just fatigue and a fever, no chills , body aches or headaches. Had a dry cough which has stuck with him even after 3 weeks. 

From what I experienced it took a week to regain energy and I only had the fever for 1 night the cough stuck around for a month. That was back in Feb. I got the anti-body test in June to confirm my suspicion. I had been traveling internationally from USA - Japan - China - Japan - USA during Jan and Feb. When I got back home about 3 days later I got the worst cough and wheezing crackling lungs ever. It was almost instant with the cough. I tried to self medicate but after 2 days it was really bad. Went to an Urgent Care. They did x-ray and said I had pneumonia - gave me some type of roid shot along with antibiotics - steroid pills & an inhaler albuterol. They recommended I see a pulmonologist which I did a day after my initial urgent care visit. Pulmo did a chest ct scan lung capacity breathing test and confirmed I had pneumonia. Was given some different medications but basically stuck with the zithromax and roids. I thought later in March that I might have had covid but sorta brushed it off. No one else that I know off at work or in my social life got sick that I know of. I take plaquenil for my rheumatoid arthritis so I guess it did not work to keep me from getting it or did it aid in my fighting it off? Who knows. Eventually my boss suggested I go get the test as it is free and it would be good info to know. 

[E3D]

37 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Like you and garfield, I don't know anyone personally who has died of Covid, for which I am grateful.

It's not that the disease was more deadly in the northeast. It's that a lot more people were infected in the northeast and were never tested. Remember how few tests were being conducted back then? It wasn't until March 17th that we conducted more than 10,000 tests in a day in this country. There were only three days prior to April 1st on which we had tested more than 100,000 people. There were only two days before May 1st on which we conducted more than 200,000 tests. Back on April 10th* I said we needed to be doing about 1,000,000 tests per day; later, when that seemed hopeless, I scaled back and called for an average of just 750,000 tests per day. We've never reached a million tests (the most was 926,000 on July 24th), and it wasn't until July 10th that we had a day with more than 750,000 tests. Over the past two weeks we've averaged 714,000 tests per day.

I still think we should do more, because as many people have said since at least March, widespread testing (and subsequent isolating of those who test positive or have been exposed to someone who tested positive) is a huge part of how you control the outbreak. But even if our current numbers are inadequate, just imagine if we'd been conducting as many tests then as we are now: 75 times more tests than we were conducting for most of March. We would have found a LOT more Covid cases in the northeast, and that region's fatality rate would be much lower, right in line with what we're generally seeing elsewhere now. The virus was already circulating in the northeast (having arrived in New York from Europe sometime in January) before anybody realized it was here. It helped the rest of the country that a number of other states in March took steps then, with very few reported cases, to at least partially lock down for a while, but it was already too late for much of the northeast. New York City was hit so badly that there are parts of that city that actually may have achieved herd immunity.**

(For a while, there was an argument circulating that the reason deaths were so high in New York was its policies regarding Covid and nursing homes. Even I thought so. But nursing homes in a number of other states with different policies have gotten slammed as well. As of July 10th, for instance, 40% of Texas cases were in nursing homes.)

.

*And back on March 13th, I wrote this: "However, the CDC's worst-case estimates are that anywhere between 200,000 and 1.7 million Americans could die of COVID-19. But a MAJOR point to remember is that those estimates assume no change in behavior or official response. Taking steps like closing schools and crowded events will make a huge difference."

We're easily going to surpass that 200,000. Nobody on DCP at the time was claiming that 200,000 American deaths would be acceptable, and I doubt anyone in the country argued that in March or April. Rather, some people here were arguing that it would never happen and that it was irresponsible for people to offer such predictions. If I recall correctly, someone here even said, in response to one such citation, that it made them suspect the CDC had been co-opted by hysterics spreading disinformation. But now polls find that, depending on the group being surveyed, as many as 57% say that our current death toll of 175,000 is acceptable.

That's just unfathomable to me.

.

**Here's an ironic tidbit: the most hard hit part of the country was a neighborhood in Queens named...

Corona.

Life's risks can never be eliminated. I remember the health and public officials in NYC saying they had no fear of covid-19 and that Chinese New year celebrations were a go and everyone should come on down to canal st. Same type of reaction was going on in San Fran. Looks bad now I agree. 

The numbers in Texas , Arizona, and Texas have been declining. Strange how places such as Texas Arizona Florida did not re implement a hard shut down but only scaled back some of the reopening. Yet the numbers are going in the right direction.

Seems like common sense distancing , hygiene, and wearing a mask in a closed public space is the way to go. Not a shutdown. 

[N.E. Brigand]

9 minutes ago, E3D said:

Life's risks can never be eliminated. I remember the health and public officials in NYC saying they had no fear of covid-19 and that Chinese New year celebrations were a go and everyone should come on down to canal st. Same type of reaction was going on in San Fran. Looks bad now I agree. 

The numbers in Texas , Arizona, and Texas have been declining. Strange how places such as Texas Arizona Florida did not re implement a hard shut down but only scaled back some of the reopening. Yet the numbers are going in the right direction.

Seems like common sense distancing , hygiene, and wearing a mask in a closed public space is the way to go. Not a shutdown. 

Are you saying you find it "acceptable," as a lot of those poll respondents do, that 175,000 Americans have died?

And if I'll stipulate that officials saying on Jan. 25 (Chinese New Year) that it was OK to attend a large event were making a mistake, would you agree that any official encouraging people to attend other large events after that date was also making a mistake?

Edited August 23, 2020 by N.E. Brigand
Another typo.

[garfield]

Just now, N.E. Brigand said:

Are you saying you find it "acceptable," as a lot of those poll respondens do, that 175,000 Americans have died?

And if I'll stipulate that officials saying on Jan. 25 (Chinese New Year) that it was OK to attend a large event were making a mistake, would you agree that any official encouraging people to attend other large events after that date was also making a mistake?

“DANGER, WILL ROBINSON,”