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PREDICTIONS FOR BROKEN ARROW


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To beat the heat (pun) discussion a bit more, the local weather people here in OKC are losing their mind over how many days in a row it'll be over 100. Like tornado season losing their mind. The main power supplier in OKC has a deal where your KWH rate is half between 7pm and 2pm the next day. Make your house into a meat locker until 2pm, and grind it out to 7 when everyone's air kicks on and the lights dim Green Mile style 🙂

 

For those that are local to the BA area ... do we know what the policy is on bringing our own water bottles into the stadium? The few shows we have here in Oklahoma, the policy varies wildly. IIRC the last show in BA sold the water for a buck, but that could be wishful thinking but that will determine how soon I think a lot of us file into the stadium.

 

Thanks and safe travels everyone!

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3 hours ago, Boss Anova said:

BD bring predicted in third place( or lower ) is something we keep seeing here on DCP every year without fail  . Absent a penalty at quarters in 2015, It hasn’t happened to the Blue Devils since 2006 ,(approx  300 competitions ago),  but maybe Tues. Nite will finally prove  to be a charm this time around , who knows . Lol 

I agree. The only time I think anyone is ahead of BD is when they actually beat BD head to head. Of course, at some point I have to believe BD will finish outside the top 2 but that ain’t happening this year.

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1 hour ago, henry7184 said:

I agree. The only time I think anyone is ahead of BD is when they actually beat BD head to head. Of course, at some point I have to believe BD will finish outside the top 2 but that ain’t happening this year.

There’s not “that show” this year. If scores come down to technical execution, the most experienced, oldest, well trained corps wins. Nine times out of ten that’s gonna be BD.

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1 hour ago, henry7184 said:

I agree. The only time I think anyone is ahead of BD is when they actually beat BD head to head. Of course, at some point I have to believe BD will finish outside the top 2 but that ain’t happening this year.

Agreed. To be the man you have to beat the man.

You can knockout all the dudes you want, but until you beat Mike Tyson (for example) you aren't the champ.

Until proven otherwise, BD has earned the right to be the man each and every year until someone proves they can beat them head to head in August when it really counts. And since 2007, only five shows have managed to do that. 

At some point BDs top two run will end. Nothing last forever. But I agree with you, it won't be in 2022. 

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24 minutes ago, MikeRapp said:

There’s not “that show” this year.

This. Exactly. I couldn’t have said it better - there is not “that show” this year. In years where there was “that show” and that show wasn’t a show by BD, BD lost.

2008 - Regiment

2011 - Cadets

2013 - Crown

2016 - Bluecoats

2018 - Vanguard

All other years either BD had “that show” or no one had “that show” and BD still won. My money is on BD this year.

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51 minutes ago, henry7184 said:

This. Exactly. I couldn’t have said it better - there is not “that show” this year. In years where there was “that show” and that show wasn’t a show by BD, BD lost.

2008 - Regiment

2011 - Cadets

2013 - Crown

2016 - Bluecoats

2018 - Vanguard

All other years either BD had “that show” or no one had “that show” and BD still won. My money is on BD this year.

Yes, but...
This is because no one has been able to "out sub-caption" Blue Devils so it requires a knock-out GE score to beat them. Not feeling likely that anyone will land a knockout punch on BD in GE this year. Crown GE is big but not deep and I'm not sure the concept is there for it to grow in the way E=MC2 (or even Inferno) did. Sometimes more is just more - see Cadets 2015.  Therefore Imo, the only means of topping BD this year would require topping them in a majority of the Viz, Guard, Brass and Perc captions. The only corps I believe capable of that this year is Bluecoats, and they'd still have to fight to a near draw on GE. Tall order but still possible with what we know of judges thinking at the moment.

BTW this is pretty much what happened in 2019. A draw in GE and trading wins in Viz and Mus resulting a victory margin of less than .1 for BD. Could have gone either way depending on the panel for the night. 

Edited by 3PoC
Added the last BTW paragraph.
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5 hours ago, NewArpege said:

Im basing it off what we see each season.  Every year, the order of rankings from beginning of year to end of year rarely change. We see this same pattern literally every single year.
 

BD has been easily beating SCV, that won’t change. Crown has already beat BAC and BC, so that likely won’t change. Crown and BD are statistically most likely to be top 2 end of year, and DCI judges tend to favor the underdog corps and especially if they have innovative shows. 

Things can change, but I’ve never seen a corp in Top 2 fall 5 places in a season, and I see no indication that is going to happen this year.

 

How is this statistically valid? Crown hasn't faced SCV or BD, and BD hasn't faced Crown, BAC, or Bloo head to head.  It may be how things end up, but it's not statistically anything right now. Crown could be in third, or BD could be in 4th. Just saying. This week will show a lot more, but it's too early to call!

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5 minutes ago, jjeffeory said:

How is this statistically valid? Crown hasn't faced SCV or BD, and BD hasn't faced Crown, BAC, or Bloo head to head.  It may be how things end up, but it's not statistically anything right now. Crown could be in third, or BD could be in 4th. Just saying. This week will show a lot more, but it's too early to call!

100% agreed. Broken Arrow and San Antonio will tell us alot. Right now it's all speculation, bias, and what we want and hope happens. 

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