PREDICTIONS FOR BROKEN ARROW

[WarriorWay]

1 hour ago, 3PoC said:

Yes, but...
This is because no one has been able to "out sub-caption" Blue Devils so it requires a knock-out GE score to beat them. Not feeling likely that anyone will land a knockout punch on BD in GE this year. Crown GE is big but not deep and I'm not sure the concept is there for it to grow in the way E=MC2 (or even Inferno) did. Sometimes more is just more - see Cadets 2015.  Therefore Imo, the only means of topping BD this year would require topping them in a majority of the Viz, Guard, Brass and Perc captions. The only corps I believe capable of that this year is Bluecoats, and they'd still have to fight to a near draw on GE. Tall order but still possible with what we know of judges thinking at the moment.

BTW this is pretty much what happened in 2019. A draw in GE and trading wins in Viz and Mus resulting a victory margin of less than .1 for BD. Could have gone either way depending on the panel for the night. 

I very much agree with your analysis, I am not sure the GE is there for Crown like it was in 2013 and 2015. Those grew out of the aura that they were, this show now has GE that is rather shallow. Regardless, even if Crown medals that is probably a win for them at least in my book. I see them probably in 2nd. But who knows.
 

My problem with Bluecoats being second is content, but as someone who hasn’t even seen their show yet entirely, I will reserve judgement.

 

Show design is one of those things that also really can sustain member attention during the back half of a season. If the show is shallow or lacks aesthetic, emotional, or intellectual depth, it can become a chore to some performers as a season progresses. Just my two cents 

[Lurker86]

6 hours ago, Boss Anova said:

Speaking of baseball, If you are a baseball and / or Red Sox  fan , how can one forget in 2004 eastern division playoffs with  the NY Yankees in Yankees Stadium playing at home,  up 3-0 in the series , leading by a run in the bottom of the 9th , and with the greatest relief pitcher to ever pitch in the game , out on the mound( Mariano Rivera ) to get the  3 outs needed to shut the Red Sox out in what now seemed a now inevitable 4 game sweep of the Red Sox ?

 …. And then the Red Sox coming back from that hole to not only win that game ,( extra innings)  but to win the next 3 games to top the Yankees in that playoff series  , then go on to sweep the St. Louis Cardinals in 4 games  to win their 1st World Series in 86 years ( since 1918) ?  Anything is possible , I suppose .. haha!

Game 4 ALCS was at Fenway 

[henry7184]

1 hour ago, Chief Guns said:

100% agreed. Broken Arrow and San Antonio will tell us alot. Right now it's all speculation, bias, and what we want and hope happens. 

I don’t even know what I hope happens. I’m not, honestly, crazy about any of the top corps shows this year, yet. I probably like Bluecoats the best because I just think the show is really cool. I think Crown is the most exciting, but I think design is going to kill them down then road. BAC is for real. 

I think the safest assumption to make right now is BD is the leader, but you’re right Broken Arrow and SA will tell us a lot.

[Tim K]

This year I am guilty of Double Standards. Most years I am a strong opponent of comparing corps who did not compete in the same show. This year where Boston Crusaders are going well and I’ve loved Boston Crusaders for years, I have no problem with the cross show comparisons. The reason I know it is a double standard is because of Cadets. When people compare shows and downplay Cadets over Blue Stars or Mandarins, I stress you can’t compare shows, if not on DCP, at least in prIvate conversations. What I say below is definitely based on cross show comparisons.

My predictions for Broken Arrow will probably differ from San Antonio. I think we may see a season in flux. 
 

1. Blue Devils and 5. SCV. 

2-4 will be interesting. I have Crown, BAC, and Bloo in these spots. BAC could come out roaring. Crown will not want to lose ground. While some are counting Bloo out, they could have the sleeper hit if the summer. I think I will put Crown in 2nd, BAC 3rd, Bloo 4th, and will be more than happy to admit I’m wrong if BAC places 1st or 2nd. 

I’m putting Blue Stars in 6th over Cavies, though I don’t think that will be how the season ends. Cavies may still need time to strengthen their sea legs. Blue Knights will finish 8th.

[craiga]

6 hours ago, rchitectburd23BD01 said:

I just reviewed Boston on the tube, but I  can't get into it. It's soo boring. I'm trying too. The corps is great though. If they were to win the championship, they would definitely not get much replays or sell much audio. jmo. 

I guess it is fortunate for Boston that they get to be judged in person rather than "on the tube".  

[ThePlanets]

4 hours ago, henry7184 said:

This. Exactly. I couldn’t have said it better - there is not “that show” this year. In years where there was “that show” and that show wasn’t a show by BD, BD lost.

2008 - Regiment

2011 - Cadets

2013 - Crown

2016 - Bluecoats

2018 - Vanguard

All other years either BD had “that show” or no one had “that show” and BD still won. My money is on BD this year.

I mostly agree with you but a deeper look adds a few factors.

97.65- the second lowest score to win this Millennium and it happened 3 times and these were arguably the 3 most interesting years 2000-2019

2000- the Cadets and Cavaliers tie for gold.

2015- Blue Devils. 4 way run for 1st and BD narrowly comes out on top

2016- Bluecoats. Top 3 within a fraction of a point of eachother. The winner could have easily been Crown or BD then we wouldn't talk about this show and how it changed DCI so much.   Must have been a down year for BD because BD gets their lowest score since 2006...which btw

2006- the lowest scoring champion score since Star of Indiana in 1991. (97.2)

 

 

I would also like to draw 2019 to your attention. This is the highest scoring Bluecoats show of all time and I believe the highest scoring 2nd place show since 2004 BD and maybe the 2nd highest 2nd place score overall. BD wins overall but scores 4th in brass and only takes home the visual performance caption. Hardly "the show"

 

[Whiskey]

I think this can go one of two ways. 
 

I think Crown will pull the win tomorrow.  Nothing more than a hunch.  
 

If they don’t win and BAC remains close, then BAC will take them at San Antonio or Murfreesboro.  This scenario will be good for BD’s chances.  

I think BAC may get its first taste being up there near the top. Although they may not pull the win at the end, it will set them up nicely for the coming years.  
 

Looking forward to seeing how Bluecoats’ GE scores look with everyone in their scoring range at the same show.  They are a real wild card for me right now.  GE numbers in general will be a fun caption to review.  

All in good fun and speculation. 

[littlejaw]

Blue Stars will be in 6th, Cavaliers will be in 7th.

Even if the variance in judges is less, I expect a point at least between the two corps. My assessment, if the Blue Stars stay over 1.5 in front of the Cavaliers at San Antonio then the Cavaliers will not catch up to the Blue Stars.

[rchitectburd23BD01]

2 hours ago, craiga said:

I guess it is fortunate for Boston that they get to be judged in person rather than "on the tube".  

I'm sure they'll sound better in person, which I get to see,  but I'm just not feeling the show design. 

[NewArpege]

5 hours ago, jjeffeory said:

How is this statistically valid? Crown hasn't faced SCV or BD, and BD hasn't faced Crown, BAC, or Bloo head to head.  It may be how things end up, but it's not statistically anything right now. Crown could be in third, or BD could be in 4th. Just saying. This week will show a lot more, but it's too early to call!

Go back and look at the scores for the past 25 years, and you’ll see what I’m saying is true.  BD and Crown have the highest scores at the moment, and it’s unlikely to change much as usually the top 2 stay there from beginning to end of year. Besides, BD has been in top 2 every year for a 2+ decades. I can’t remember the last time they were third, honestly, so it’s unlikely they’d be fourth especially bc the judges coordinate scores across the country.