Interesting and odd predictions for 2008

[jjeffeory]

even as a die-hard fan of Phantom, i can see some validity with your second point. the story's been used twice before and it doesn't seem like it's "new and fresh." it's not like it's a complete rehashing tho, there is new music (supposedly great drill too) and from what cesario told us, a darker, earthier approach in telling the story. tho maybe they're just trying to be rebellious in their own way? everyone's pushing for "the next big thing" whether its electronics, vocals, caged deathmatches...so they're saying "NO!", we'll do what tradition expects of us (ALWAYS!). now, if they bring out New World for next year...i'll be a little disappointed and your point will be even more qualified.

Not trying to start trouble, but why would a show that hasn't been done in 26 years, not be considered fresh? I mean, it's not even a rehash. Much of the music is different and the drill is going to be as well.

I mean, were people back in 1980 saying that something that was done in 1955 wasn't fresh?

It's okay to redo "themes" and general shows after a while in my book. Updates to classics are fine and happen all over the music world.

Maybe we should see what everybody thinks..

Edited June 9, 2008 by jjeffeory

[hostrauser]

Here are my predictions, some of them interesting, some of them odd. Consider each of my score predictions to have a +/- 0.1 attached to it. I can't wait to see how stupid these look in August.

1. Blue Devils - 98.3 - Call it a hunch. It's been over a decade since the Devils pulled a repeat, and I think they've got the show to do it. Early reports indicate this year's show is both more challenging and "fan-friendlier" (whatever THAT means) than "Winged Victory."

Warning Signs? None.

2. The Cavaliers - 97.8 - I'm sure the Cavaliers will be a power for ages to come, but I just can't predict a title for them the year after Jeff Fiedler leaves. This is more out of respect to Mr. Fiedler than a diss against the Cavaliers; the majority of their instructional staff is intact and I certainly don't foresee a "drop-off."

Warning Signs? 6th in Brass AND Percussion can't happen again if they want to contend.

3. The Cadets - 97.7 - Process of elimination, here. This could be one of those years where the Top Three shuffle the captions and share them equally. I would not at all be surprised to see the 3rd place corps this season hit 97.500 at Finals.

Warning Signs? The usually dominant Cadets drumline has finished in the Top 3 of their caption only once in the past four years. Of course, when they did, the Cadets won it all.

4. Bluecoats - 94.6 - Timing is everything: the Bluecoats dropped from 4th to 7th from 2006-2007 despite raising their Finals score almost a point. The corps has been very consistent in the 21st Century and I still think has the best shot of being the newest member of the Top 3.

Warning Signs? The visual just hasn't been there. Despite their recent string of success, the Coats have finished in the Top 5 in Visual GE and Total Visual only once this century.

5. Phantom Regiment - 94.2 - Of course I'm a Phantom homer; of course I want them to finish in the Top 3. But, aside from the initial program announcement months ago, there's been (as I see it) very little buzz about this corps so far. While I have absolutely no "inside dirt" to support this claim, I feel the corps hit a bit of a speed bump when Pat Seidling left.

Warning Signs? Streak of Top 5 finishes in Visual Performance five years in a row (2002-2006) ended last year (7th).

6. Santa Clara Vanguard - 92.7 - My 2008 "Mystery Corps." I can see SCV finishing anywhere from 3rd to 8th. I've heard such mixed views of what people have seen and heard so far. They've made some good additions to their staff, but they still haven't recovered from the loss of Jim Casella.

Warning Signs? Percussion. Last three years with Casella? 2nd, 2nd, 1st. First three years without Casella? 10th, 7th, 7th. Ouch.

7. Carolina Crown - 91.3 - Yes, I think this corps is a "corps on the rise" just like you. Yes, I will be pulling for them to crack the Top 5 in 2008. But, let's not forget, folks: this corps was only a tenth of a point from 7th place LAST season as it was, and DCI history has shown it is not uncommon for a corps to regress slightly after a "banner year." (See: 2000-2001 Crusaders, 2001-2002 Glassmen, even 1994-1995 Blue Knights)

Warning Signs? Despite their recent string of success the past four years, Crown has yet to crack the Top 6 in Musical Ensemble at Finals.

8. Boston Crusaders - 90.4 - Boston did not have a caption ordinal lower than 9th in Finals, and only one was lower than 9th in Semis. I can't see this corps shooting into the Top 6, I can't see them missing finals. A solid, balanced corps.

Warning Signs? No bad sections, but no outstanding sections either: they also didn't have a caption ordinal higher than 8th during all of Finals week.

9. Blue Knights - 88.9 - Blue Knights' history: 1991-1994, four Top 10 finishes, 1995 - missed finals. 1997-2000, four Top 10 finishes, 2001 - missed finals. 2004-2007, four Top 10 finishes, 2008 - ha, just kidding. They might finish lower than I have them here, but to miss Finals FOUR of the corps below would have to pass them, and I just can't see that happening.

Warning Signs? Same as Boston: no bad sections, but no outstanding sections in 2007: no ordinals higher than 7th or lower than 9th for all of Finals week.

10. Madison Scouts - 86.3 - Sure, why not. Here's hoping the staff turmoil with Madison is over with. Regardless, having watched Clovis West HS, James Logan HS, and the Blue Devils for years, I'm familiar with Ramiro Barrera and Ken Karlin's work and have high hopes for what they can do with Madison. This might be an optimistic pick, but I expect them to at least contend (within a point) for Finals.

Warning Signs? What wasn't a warning sign in 2007? From their lowest finish in the DCI era to their lowest final score in 35 years, there's room for improvement in pretty much every area.

11. Glassmen - 86.0 - I can't say I have a good feeling about this corps this year, but they always find a way: they've made Finals 13 of the past 15 seasons. The question is: what part of the corps (visual, brass, percussion) is going to step up and propel the G-Men up the standings?

Warning Signs? Brass. Even during their great run from 1998-2001 their brass usually lagged behind the other captions.

12. The Academy - 85.6 - In their first trip to DCI Championships they won the Division II title. In their second trip to DCI Championships they finished one spot out of Finals. Third times a charm? I say yes: not only is the young corps developing, but much of their staff is, too. Early reports from across the state line have told me that The Academy's music book is much more mature and refined this year...

Warning Signs? ...which is all well and good, but The Academy was 16th in Total Visual in Semis last year, and that has to improve.

*************

13. Colts - 86.2 - (Remember, there's usually a scoring drop between Semis and Finals for the 10th-12th corps.) The Colts are possibly the most consistent corps in DCI. Over the past 15 seasons, through all the scoring trends and recap changes, the Colts' final scores from each season fit neatly into a 6-point range: 80.1 to 86.15. That said, they've only made Finals twice in the past 8 years.

Cause for Hope? Brass line and effect captions were strong last year. If the percussion steps up their game this corps could be back in Finals.

14. Spirit from JSU - 85.7 - I expect 10th through 16th to be really bunched up this season, and I think the last three corps in Finals will be a subject of much debate all the way through August. Spirit usually squeaks in, but I predit a couple of corps to be just a bit better this Summer.

Cause for Hope? Opposite of the Colts: the drumline pushed the corps into Finals last year, now the brass needs to step up.

15. Crossmen - 84.1 - I really, really wanted to predict the Crossmen in Finals this year. I like what I've heard of Aaron Guidry's arrangements (if he can make tired pieces like "The Planets" sound fresh, he's a keeper), but there's just too much work to be done here, across all captions. Even putting them ahead of the Blue Stars is a bit of a stretch.

Cause for Hope? Guard was strong in Semis, Visual Performance strong in Quarters; if they can just get some good performances to "mesh up" on the same day...

16. Blue Stars - 83.9 - How rude! What have the Blue Stars done to deserve this from me? Nothing, really. I think they mainly end up here after a process of elimination and my (perhaps overly optimistic) hopes for the Scouts, Academy, and Crossmen.

Cause for Hope? Music was strong last season; if they can get the visual that much cleaner they'll make a fool out of me.

17. Pacific Crest - 80.1 - Big, big gap between 16th and 17th this year, regardless of which corps end up in those spots. But Pacific Crest's show concept this year gives me more warm fuzzies than the other corps duking it out for Semis. 2007 saw Pacific Crest's highest season-ending score yet.

Cause for Hope? Visual and effect scores we plenty for Semis last year, only a poor music score made them sweat it out a bit. That doesn't happen this year.

*************

18. Troopers - 79.8 - Baby steps. This corps has only made Semis three times in the last 20 years, and no times in the last 12. I like the direction they're headed and their staffing choices. That said, I wouldn't mind them dropping the western-themed shows. I'm not saying change the uniform or corps identity or any of that; but I think their insistence on doing "Western" shows has hamstrung some of their potential.

Cause for Hope? Topped Pacific Crest in brass and tied in percussion in 2007 Quarters.

19. Mandarins - 78.4 - Want to know how the Mandarins will do this year? Don't look at me. I can never figure this corps out. The year I thought they might challenge for Finals they didn't even make Semis (2003). Still, they're coming off their worst placement in nine years.

Cause for Hope? Guard and Music were at least competitive with the corps ahead of them at 2007 Quarters.

20. Pioneer - 73.5 - Similar to the Troop, I feel Pioneer's attempt to shoehorn every show idea into the Irish idiom is a bad idea. I was present the first time Pioneer made Semifinals, but they really haven't been close the past six years.

Cause for Hope? You know what? They're on the field. That's really ALL that matters. And hey, as long as you're on the field performing, anything can happen...

[chaos001]

Not trying to start trouble, but why would a show that hasn't been done in 26 years, not be considered fresh? I mean, it's not even a reshash. Much of the music is different and the drill is going to be as well.

I mean, were people back in 1980 saying that something that was done in 1955 wasn't fresh?

It's okay to redo "themes" and general shows after a while in my book. Updates to classics are fine and happen all over the music world.

Maybe we should see what everybody thinks..

just because it has been done twice before seems to be enough for some to speculate that it won't be very good. obviously these predictions aren't supposed to be logically based.

and as far as there hasn't been any "buzz" or "inside dirt" from camp, i can't say that i remember (and i may be wrong) of any during Faust...and looks were that got them.

[BigSnareline]

just because it has been done twice before seems to be enough for some to speculate that it won't be very good. obviously these predictions aren't supposed to be logically based.

and as far as there hasn't been any "buzz" or "inside dirt" from camp, i can't say that i remember (and i may be wrong) of any during Faust...and looks were that got them.

I think it's really cool that Phantom is doing Spartacus again this year. There is no end to what their talented staff could make out of this show.

Corps repeating a prior show concept is just fine IMO.

[GMichael1230]

I predict some corps will continue to use second rate, sophmoric, ineffective narration, totally overshadowing the spectacular marching and instrument playing and continuing to polarize the audience.

Geoffrey

ps: Its now 2008, nothing has dropped anyones jaws in the area of voice with amplification, quite the contrary, stop shoving it down our thraots and get back to basics.

[highpitch_83]

Haven't posted in a while so I'll throw my $0.02 into the fountain:

1. SCV

This is my most off the wall prediction w/ the following theory backing it: DL has grown LEAPS since '05, add Gussek back in the mix and they should be outlandishly strong (lil' worried about cleaning 6 quads though); guard & vis packages are always great and I LOVE the use of Chairman Dances... However if the GE sheet leans towards an easy to grasp "concept/theme" they'll drop fast (but not out of the top 5)

2. BD

I REALLY wanted to put Phantom in this spot but after watching some of the clips on Fan Network I think BD will have the horses to keep them in the hunt all season and if my "wish" pick above doesn't happen I could see a repeat. (Side note: When I first heard the show title I was appalled but it is growing on me...)

3. Cadets

Always great players, ridiculous difficulty, etc... but as we saw in '06 "Part 2" rarely works out that well. Narration or not I'm sure the maroon and gold will put on an amazing display of talent.

4. Phantom

Bringing back Spartacus feels like their biggest play for a title since '06. With a classic, "dark" PR theme plus equal parts Rage, Rennick and Shaw this show SHOULD make for a Fan fave... but with ANOTHER new visual director I fear that they'll fall just short.

5. Cavies

No matter how you slice it, Fiedler leaving is going impact this corps a great deal... I do hope that w/ the thematic material the Cav's are exploring we see a grittier, more explosive side of the green machine vs. the campy/"on the nose" productions of years past.

6. Crown/Bluecoats (tie)

I have a feeling these two are going to be trading placements ALL summer... both are in similar stages in their elevation into drum corps highest echelon but for one reason or another are always missing a significant element to get them over the hump. Crown may suffer because of their schizo set of tunes (the idea of a compilation show frightens me) and with COats I'm concerned about Hardin coming on board (personal preference)

8/9/10. Boston/BK/Colts

Because they're ALWAYS there

11. Madison

Spicy Latin theme: <check>, Dudes in green: <check>, Year 2 of "rebuilding mode": <check>

12. Blue Stars/Crossmen/Academy grab bag

Not really sure which way to go here... BS theme & musical selections doesn't seem to have a lot of Oomph behind it; I LOVED the X-men last year but the execution wasn't there and Academy only did a 1/2 tour last year... (Dropped Spirit based solely on the addition of Shane Gwaltney as the perc. caption head... I like what he does in WGI w/ MCM but I don't see it translating well to the field and think it could hurt Spirit like it hurt Crown the past couple years)

Of course everything above has no real justification, all just gut feelings and personal preferences... it did get me excited for the season to start!

<swarms to DCI.org\calendar>

[corps-mudgeon]

ps: Its now 2008, nothing has dropped anyones jaws in the area of voice with amplification, quite the contrary, stop shoving it down our thraots and get back to basics.

Well said. IMO, the show that came closest to making amplified voice in the form of narration work was XMen '06.

[BigSnareline]

I predict some corps will continue to use second rate, sophmoric, ineffective narration, totally overshadowing the spectacular marching and instrument playing and continuing to polarize the audience.

Geoffrey

ps: Its now 2008, nothing has dropped anyones jaws in the area of voice with amplification, quite the contrary, stop shoving it down our thraots and get back to basics.

[euponitone]

3. Cadets

Always great players, ridiculous difficulty, etc... but as we saw in '06 "Part 2" rarely works out that well. Narration or not I'm sure the maroon and gold will put on an amazing display of talent.

The Cadets are doing a "part II" show??? I had no idea

[euponitone]

I predict some corps will continue to use second rate, sophmoric, ineffective narration, totally overshadowing the spectacular marching and instrument playing and continuing to polarize the audience.

Geoffrey

ps: Its now 2008, nothing has dropped anyones jaws in the area of voice with amplification, quite the contrary, stop shoving it down our thraots and get back to basics.

Sigh.... I cant even disagree or argue...

yet...