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Pre-June Prediction Thread


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Or Cossmen , or Colts , or Spirit .

I was going to put Colts and Spirit in there, but I'm not sure if 2007 is considered 'recent.'

Crossmen haven't made finals in a while.

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I think this is largely true. But here's the difference this time and it has to do with the bolded part of your first sentence: BD will only continue to dominate if they continue to "push their own envelop". Their design staff knows this and it's exciting to think of the possibilities because of it. Meanwhile hopefully (hopefully to me anyway) the other capable corps have been paying attention are are willing to break out of the company front/48 bar hold crap and wow us with something new and exciting.

Cavies rocked the DC design world and set a style in place that carried them. But they kept going back to that trough too long, they became predicable and fell out of favor with a judging community that had seen it all before with different show titles. This year, they designed a hyper version of themselves, but it wasn't different, just different enough to be more different than BC. This is strictly about design and not performance (which is of itself a determiner).

So...BD will threepeat if they are able to not repeat themselves the way Cavies did. I think that's what we are both saying!

NOTE: "Accessable" to me is code for dumb down your design and do what we're familiar with!

I agree with you 100% right up until the last NOTE.

IMO, a show can be accessible AND new, fresh, something we've never seen before. It's just another element of design that those tasked with need to figure out. I see no reason why we need to continue to pigeon-hole and segregate "fan friendly" and "avante guarde" as if they're oil and water. I understand that generally, that's the way of things. But you seem to be saying that BD's design team can't push the envelope without leaving people in the stands scratching their heads wondering what the hell just happened.

I don't buy that.

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Very intriguing post. Lots of bold statements and nuance in your points...

Do you think that in some way then that corps compete against themselves through their past show designs? I think that's and interesting idea. You are assuming however that the point of effective show design is how far they "push the envelope" However, I'm not so sure how to define what "pushing the envelope" even means when it comes to show design. I mean, it's really based on perspective.

I think an idea that people need to get out of their head is that idea that "pushing the envelope" does not mean "un-entertaining" and "entertaining" does not just mean "company front/ 48 bar hold crap".

I'm not sure what corps your referring to but while I WANT corps to "push the envelope" in show design and be original and creative, I don't want all corps to be like BD. In my mind each corps can have their own "specific" way of "pushing the envelope based on that corps "personality". And of course I want to be wowed with something and new exciting, at the same time... I am a sucker for company fronts (most of the time)... soooo yea. LOL

But there is a fine line between being different and "out there". I mean Cadets 05 pushed the envelope in show design in a positive way.... Cadets 08 ALSO pushed the envelope... maybe too far. So there has to be a balance. In my opinion BD 2010 was just on the verge of pushing the envelope "too" far but managed to stay on the table for the judges. I mean, I've heard judges say that when they judge effect, they are looking for something new, fresh and different because like a lot of fans they "think" that the potential of drum corps to wow the audience has not been maxed out yet, and that it will never be maxed out.

I don't know about your definition of accessible... I think a lot of show have been "accessible" without dumbing down the design (like Phantom 08) and I think a lot of, in my opinion, unique/different/unfamiliar show designs have been horribly inaccessible (cadets 08).

I'll try to respond in some semblance of order:

- I don't believe that ALL corps compete against themselves in show design, just the ones that are prevailing at the top or within their tier. As far as "pushing the envelop" is concerned, I am not comfortable using Cadets 08 as an example of this. It was different but it was really two shows, the stuff going on in the middle (which was Cadets 07 on steroids) and the insane (in a good way) drill going on with no real connection to the middle (IMO). But it serves to illustrate my point.... George was emboldened by the results in 07 and it encouraged him to take it up a notch...unfortunately the part of the show he increased in 08 was not the stuff that got him a silver the year before... but I think he misread that it was (again..my opinion) and he pushed what he thought was the envelop. Does that make sense to you?

- I deserved the jab about "company fronts..." but my point was that they are almost a sure bet to get a standing O, it's almost like the fans are saying..."if we ever want to see these again, we better stand up!" Having said that, I had chills in 09 for SCV in their moment, I can't deny it. But what I'm suggesting is that there are good designers out there that can do better than just that. Hop has said he targets 3 standing O's per show in his design...and for some reason I find that sad. Like we're a bunch of mindless, artless vessiles that respond to the predictable. BTW..this is where I normally part ways with the DCP vets, they always miss my point.

- I don't want other corps to be like BD either... fat chance :rolleyes: , I just would like to see them get outside of their comfort zones....risk a little. There could not be 3 more different shows than BD 08,09 & 10. Was it risky?...hell ya it was! But they were fearless (well...maybe a touch of fear ). Sooo...I agree, there is a difference between "different and out there", but you won't know until you try....and for that I give Kudos to George.

- Hooray to you for the bolded statement.. I completely agree!

- I also believe that PR 08 was genius in its audience connection (access?) but (as I have previously noted) that type of story show has a very narrow means of sustaining itself. The story must be big enough to get past the pit, must be obvious/easy to tell and must "peak" at the right time in the competition season or it drops fast. And of course PR became a victim of their own success in attempting to repeat the next year the most difficult of all DC shows...the story. Disaster!

So....accessible is in the eye of the beholder, and IMO when BD 2011 enters the field there will continue to be more angst about them as a corps and their place at the top.... than what they are doing on field.....and to me that's a #### shame!

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I'll try to respond in some semblance of order:

- I don't believe that ALL corps compete against themselves in show design, just the ones that are prevailing at the top or within their tier. As far as "pushing the envelop" is concerned, I am not comfortable using Cadets 08 as an example of this. It was different but it was really two shows, the stuff going on in the middle (which was Cadets 07 on steroids) and the insane (in a good way) drill going on with no real connection to the middle (IMO). But it serves to illustrate my point.... George was emboldened by the results in 07 and it encouraged him to take it up a notch...unfortunately the part of the show he increased in 08 was not the stuff that got him a silver the year before... but I think he misread that it was (again..my opinion) and he pushed what he thought was the envelop. Does that make sense to you?

- I deserved the jab about "company fronts..." but my point was that they are almost a sure bet to get a standing O, it's almost like the fans are saying..."if we ever want to see these again, we better stand up!" Having said that, I had chills in 09 for SCV in their moment, I can't deny it. But what I'm suggesting is that there are good designers out there that can do better than just that. Hop has said he targets 3 standing O's per show in his design...and for some reason I find that sad. Like we're a bunch of mindless, artless vessiles that respond to the predictable. BTW..this is where I normally part ways with the DCP vets, they always miss my point.

- I don't want other corps to be like BD either... fat chance :rolleyes: , I just would like to see them get outside of their comfort zones....risk a little. There could not be 3 more different shows than BD 08,09 & 10. Was it risky?...hell ya it was! But they were fearless (well...maybe a touch of fear ). Sooo...I agree, there is a difference between "different and out there", but you won't know until you try....and for that I give Kudos to George.

- Hooray to you for the bolded statement.. I completely agree!

- I also believe that PR 08 was genius in its audience connection (access?) but (as I have previously noted) that type of story show has a very narrow means of sustaining itself. The story must be big enough to get past the pit, must be obvious/easy to tell and must "peak" at the right time in the competition season or it drops fast. And of course PR became a victim of their own success in attempting to repeat the next year the most difficult of all DC shows...the story. Disaster!

So....accessible is in the eye of the beholder, and IMO when BD 2011 enters the field there will continue to be more angst about them as a corps and their place at the top.... than what they are doing on field.....and to me that's a #### shame!

I think, regardless of what they say, every drum corps designer out there has audience reaction in the back of their heads to some degree and that degree depends on the level of success their corps is experiencing. I think it plays a much larger (though unspoken role) in how far outside the comfort zone they try to step. BD has been riding this wave of competitive success and I think it has emboldened them to the point where they feel they can almost get away with anything they decide to put on the field (for lack of a better phrase). Madison on the other hand, just made it back into finals, so... they're probably gonna continue to play it safe for a while.

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It's absolutely plausable for one or more of the top 5 to challenge for the title this year. But....they won't do it by traditional means. Some rising stars like Madison may continue to reach back and tug at the heart strings of yesterday but that will only keep them around for finals. Cavies, Cadets and CC have the skill sets in their design teams to challenge BD this year, the question is: are they going to pull the trigger or do the expected? CC in my option is in the best positioned as long as they are willing to risk it. I also see SCV and Bluecoats as darkhorses this year...again, if they are willing to risk designing out of their comfort zones.

BD is designing at another level now (both musically and visually) and 3 years in a row demonstrates that this is no flash in the pan. If any corps (including the 3C's) wants a shot, they need to break their own design paradigms (and I don't mean some goofy storylines...they get tiresome very quickly).

Finally, I expect to see BDB & SCV Cadets challenge for Semi's....very cool!

I agree... BDB and SCV-C will challenge for Semis.

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ITT: Not a single person has put my corps to a change in place of less than +2.

Feels good man.

And, just speaking in general relative terms from what I've heard from people I know in various programs without getting too crazy...

Colts down (so many people leaving)

Bluecoats retaining, which means up (but up is a mighty hard direction to go...)

Blue Stars staying or at least up

Scouts up

Cavies... ? (lots of new faces in the battery, but new faces who've been playing together for a very long time)

Crown maybe down

everyone else - don't know

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I would not consider 2010 Glassmen rock solid.

maybe not in July. by August yeah

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- I deserved the jab about "company fronts..." but my point was that they are almost a sure bet to get a standing O, it's almost like the fans are saying..."if we ever want to see these again, we better stand up!" Having said that, I had chills in 09 for SCV in their moment, I can't deny it. But what I'm suggesting is that there are good designers out there that can do better than just that. Hop has said he targets 3 standing O's per show in his design...and for some reason I find that sad. Like we're a bunch of mindless, artless vessiles that respond to the predictable. BTW..this is where I normally part ways with the DCP vets, they always miss my point.

far be it for me to...well...ever...give Hop praise, I will for that statement.

why? Standing O's mean people like you. When people like you, they're willing to spend money on you. This is a business too, and while scores are important for many corps, so is revenue coming in the doors.

- I also believe that PR 08 was genius in its audience connection (access?) but (as I have previously noted) that type of story show has a very narrow means of sustaining itself. The story must be big enough to get past the pit, must be obvious/easy to tell and must "peak" at the right time in the competition season or it drops fast. And of course PR became a victim of their own success in attempting to repeat the next year the most difficult of all DC shows...the story. Disaster!

So....accessible is in the eye of the beholder, and IMO when BD 2011 enters the field there will continue to be more angst about them as a corps and their place at the top.... than what they are doing on field.....and to me that's a #### shame!

you're right, the story is key. The problem with Phantom 09 is the story never grew. or made sense

Stories can work, and yes they have to be planned to peak just right. The key is, IMO, not over-programming. as Cesario said in his piece on DCI, faux intelligence isn't all that's cracked up to be.

as to you last sentence....it may be a shame, but people are paying customers, and if customers dont like what they see, they'll #####. simple fact of life, drum corps and business

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