Summer Music Preview - Bristol RI


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A tumultuous time of the drum corps season. East and West starting to converge, more full panels on the horizon, corps making big changes or additions.

Just a few days ago, though at different shows, the 2 undefeateds (Cadets and Blue Devils) had basically the same score...BD has leapt forward since then, with scores perhaps unnatural for this time of season. Several other corps are doing so well right now, it's hard to imagine this turning in to 2010 again, when Blue Devils are basically 1 to 2 points ahead of everyone all season. But who knows, there's really only two corps in recent DCI history that know how to blow it out of the water with scores -- this era's BD, and the early 2000's Cavies.

Speaking of Cavies, they've have shown what a lot of us thought after Akron -- this isn't the ~8th place corps of the past two seasons. Good for them! I think drum corps needs a Cavalier corps that does well competitively.

Count me as a fan of the Bluecoats' sound and some of the things they try, since about 2007 when they switched up their uniform. 2010 was the high water mark for me, good to see them back in that way this year!

It's been since 2006 that Cadets have gone this long undefeated. We know what happened then! But they're a strong corps, very strong. I was worried last night seeing their GE rep numbers lower than GE performance, but that wasn't the case at the previous shows, so I'll wait...one night does not a trend make. They're holding back the uniform and I assume silk changes -- I guess until later in the weekend, in the runup to seeing BD for the first time next week. They spent part of their previous few non-show days making sure the changes would be possible. Still waiting on the finale, too.

2006 was a talented group (coming out of an amazing 2005 season) so high talent/performance levels kept them on top but they had design flaws which ultimately got to them as others cleaned. This season their are no design flaws. One may not like the show but the musical arrangements and performance, visual and guard, are all top notch so a different scenario IMO.

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Last time Bloo topped Crown = 8/14/2010. It's been a while. Congrats Bluecoats !!

I've always wondered, why do the early California shows always get full panels: California: Clovis - June 20th Stanford - June 21st Sacramento - June 22nd Oceanside - June 27th Glendora - June 2

The loq content numbers for Cadets were really weird to me last night. They gave been consistently high so far in that regard, and suddenly a drop? Why would that be?

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It's all about the spreads, Kemosabe. BD was 2.7 up over Vanguard on Sunday, and then 3.9 over Cavaliers last night in Iowa. When you don't have head to heads, relative spreads are the next best thing. Is it possible that Cavaliers would be outscoring Vanguard right now? Sure, but if you look at the spreads between corps A and B, and A and C, and see that C is spread out further than B, it's a safe assumption that were all three to be together, that they'd be ranked A, B, C.

Not so fast, Tonto. Does your relative spreads theory have a track record showing it to be a better predictor then current rankings, weighted or otherwise? Or Hostrauser's rankings? If so, then trot it out. I suspect that the track record wouldn't show your assumptions to be as safe as you think they are, especially this early in the season.

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Not so fast, Tonto. Does your relative spreads theory have a track record showing it to be a better predictor then current rankings, weighted or otherwise? Or Hostrauser's rankings? If so, then trot it out. I suspect that the track record wouldn't show your assumptions to be as safe as you think they are, especially this early in the season.

Past performance is not a predictor of future results.

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DCI history is a GREAT predictor of future DCI placement results. Within 3 placement positions, from year over end, its almost a sure bet as a matter of fact.

Edited by BRASSO
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A few days ago, GH said something like "And we have a great idea for the grand finale".

Good, because I really don't like what they have now.

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Not so fast, Tonto. Does your relative spreads theory have a track record showing it to be a better predictor then current rankings, weighted or otherwise? Or Hostrauser's rankings? If so, then trot it out. I suspect that the track record wouldn't show your assumptions to be as safe as you think they are, especially this early in the season.

Maybe I misremember Hostrauser's methods, but I believe he includes spreads.

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Not so fast, Tonto. Does your relative spreads theory have a track record showing it to be a better predictor then current rankings, weighted or otherwise? Or Hostrauser's rankings? If so, then trot it out. I suspect that the track record wouldn't show your assumptions to be as safe as you think they are, especially this early in the season.

The only thing that matters in guestimating current rankings (which is all any of us are doing) is the present day. Real time very recent results show that Vanguard's numbers have been closer to BD's than Cavaliers'. It's reasonable to use that information in positing that it's most likely that were they to be on the same field, right now (not in two weeks, or another month), that Vanguard would have a slight point/placement advantage over Rosemont.

If you want to know, my guess is that by the end of the season, Cavaliers will actually end up placing on top of Santa Clara, and that they might even have an outside shot of beating Crown for the 4th spot. But that's for time to tell; right now, they'd be more likely to finish 6th in a G7 matchup rather than 4th or 5th.

Edited by Slingerland
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The only thing that matters in guestimating current rankings (which is all any of us are doing) is the present day. Real time very recent results show that Vanguard's numbers have been closer to BD's than Cavaliers'. It's reasonable to use that information in positing that it's most likely that were they to be on the same field, right now (not in two weeks, or another month), that Vanguard would have a slight point/placement advantage over Rosemont.

If you want to know, my guess is that by the end of the season, Cavaliers will actually end up placing on top of Santa Clara, and that they might even have an outside shot of beating Crown for the 4th spot. But that's for time to tell; right now, they'd be more likely to finish 6th in a G7 matchup rather than 4th or 5th.

I agree. I'm thinking Cavaliers are in 5th in August.
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