geluf Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Good tactic. Point out the handful of times it's happened thereby disregarding the norm. I hope you play the lottery. There's definitely no trend of BD winning either. There's nothing "tactical" about it. You made a sweeping generalization, claiming that this was all over. It's is patently false. Now you're attempting to make it seem like you didn't do just that and are instead deflecting in the face of actual data. But here, let's take the 2013 theme to its conclusion, shall we? 6/21 Crown beats BD by .15 6/22 BD beats Crown by .7 6/23 BD beats Crown by .4 6/29 Crown beats BD by .3 6/30 Crown beats BD by .9 7/3 Crown beats BD by 1.0 (a full point! The season must be over!) 7/6 Crown beats BD by .5 7/8 Crown beats BD by .65 7/11 Crown beats BD by .35 7/13 Crown beats BD by .45 7/15 Crown beats BD by .95 7/18 BD beats Crown by .1 7/20 BD beats Crown by .25 Crown retakes for a bit, is briefly beaten by the CADETS on 7/23 (by .25) and then, on 7/26: BD beats Crown by 1.05 points Season Over I guess. Or something. BD stays ahead of Crown until 7/30. Crown retakes until 8/3 where BD overtakes them *again*. On 8/4, BD is ahead by .65 BD beats Crown in Prelims by .15 Crown takes Semis and Finals. So, how come BD was able to recover from being a point down in early July? Because they didn't sit on their hands. How did Crown overtake BD in late July by a full point and STILL lose the lead a few more times (once to the Cadets even)? Because 1 point is not the grand canyon. It isn't even the Colorado River. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Dixon Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 3 judges didn't agree with this last night in Ft Wayne and a 2 didn't agree with it tonight...add Crown to the mix, and the fact that we have over 3 more weeks, and perhaps we can all finally agree that the battle is for 1-2-3-4 I'm right with you on this now. A week ago I thought it was a 3 way, now it feels like a 4 way. IMHO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geluf Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 (edited) With 4 corps in the hunt, it is easily mathematically possible for 1 corps to have the best chance to win and still be more likely to lose than to win. Just something to think about. Totally. That isn't what caliswift did, though. They all but declared the season over with the statement "we can agree that it's no longer a race for first". Now they're backpedaling. Edited July 10, 2014 by geluf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caliswift Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Since you seem to be insanely uninformed, here is how scores work: - Look at each caption - Look at the spread on each caption - If the the spread between any two corps is between .1-.3, the judge is saying that on any given night, with a slightly better/worse run-through, the scores could flip. - If the spread is between .4-.6 (I believe?) it means some changes need to occur to catch up in that caption. - Anything outside of that spread means there is a clear winner in that category Percussion is the only .4 caption I see on there. Keep sippin that Kool-Aid. Again, insult the dissenting poster by assuming his/her level of knowledge. Then move into how you are an expert. Please tell me how you're an expert and have this vast knowledge of DCI judging. I think you believe there's a lot more science to this than there really is these days. Jesus guys. You so desperately want something that simply isn't there. Could it change? Sure. You've obviously provided instances where it has. You could simply provide (more) examples where it hasn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TESB Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 There's nothing "tactical" about it. You made a sweeping generalization, claiming that this was all over. It's is patently false. Now you're attempting to make it seem like you didn't do just that and are instead deflecting in the face of actual data. But here, let's take the 2013 theme to its conclusion, shall we? 6/21 Crown beats BD by .15 6/22 BD beats Crown by .7 6/23 BD beats Crown by .4 6/29 Crown beats BD by .3 6/30 Crown beats BD by .9 7/3 Crown beats BD by 1.0 (a full point! The season must be over!) 7/6 Crown beats BD by .5 7/8 Crown beats BD by .65 7/11 Crown beats BD by .35 7/13 Crown beats BD by .45 7/15 Crown beats BD by .957/18 BD beats Crown by .1 7/20 BD beats Crown by .25 Crown retakes for a bit, is briefly beaten by the CADETS on 7/23 (by .25) and then, on 7/26: BD beats Crown by 1.05 points Season Over I guess. Or something. BD stays ahead of Crown until 7/30. Crown retakes until 8/3 where BD overtakes them *again*. On 8/4, BD is ahead by .65 BD beats Crown in Prelims by .15 Crown takes Semis and Finals. So, how come BD was able to recover from being a point down in early July? Because they didn't sit on their hands. How did Crown overtake BD in late July by a full point and STILL lose the lead a few more times (once to the Cadets even)? Because 1 point is not the grand canyon. It isn't even the Colorado River. Someone should make this list for 2009, 2010, and 2012 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidWAmericanArts Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 The only thing I am sure of is that I am unsure of everything! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRASSO Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 2014 is a Cadevaliers year.. I never wavered on this. Since 1976, only once ( '88,'89 ) did The Cadevaliers Royal Family not reclaim their Manifest Destiny as Monarch after a 1 year ascension by a 1 year interloper. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfirwin3 Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Order of performance is going to matter more than usual as well. It's difficult to say HOW it will matter, but once these corps all get together, judges are going to have an interesting task managing their numbers with respect to their slotting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geluf Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 (edited) Someone should make this list for 2009, 2010, and 2012 Can do! 2010 I know will be pretty uninteresting. BD went on an undefeated tear there. I'll need to check on 2012. 2011 had some back and forth I believe as well. Edit: I'll make the comparisons to the eventual champ in those years, just to keep it all consistent, obviously. Edited July 10, 2014 by geluf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
actucker Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Again, insult the dissenting poster by assuming his/her level of knowledge. Then move into how you are an expert. Please tell me how you're an expert and have this vast knowledge of DCI judging. I think you believe there's a lot more science to this than there really is these days. Jesus guys. You so desperately want something that simply isn't there. Could it change? Sure. You've obviously provided instances where it has. You could simply provide (more) examples where it hasn't. He's not claiming to be an expert. He's claiming to have read a judging sheet. Its not hard to come by this information. The spreads and what they imply vary slightly from activity to activity, but the concept remains pretty consistent. The spread sends you a message. A 1 point spread says pretty clearly "these corps are comparable". Particularly in early July. We've had one show where the two corps have met. Nothing is decided at this point. You're the one who made the bold statement, so the onus falls on you to prove why you're right. Nobody had to provide you with evidence to the contrary. Its your conclusion to support. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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