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2016 Prediction Thread


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Close races to the finish are always the most exciting :)

Yes, I agree Screamer.

The fact that recaps will supposedly not be as readily available to the judges as before ( they probably will be... but thinking optimistically here), there is at least the potential for more volatility in the scores this season. Thats probably a good thing ( except if our favorite Corps gets on the wrong side of the volatility some nites.. haha). I can see more of the continuation of the score swings and placements that we saw in the early season of last summer. Half size judging panels also contribute to this volatilty.. especially with Corps generally out of the top 5 or 6 most seasons. I think it will be exciting season, and am looking forward to it.

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I have no data to back this up but it seems that if you don't come out of the gate scoring 70 or more you don't have much of a chance hitting 90 or better by Nationals. You will need to get off the blocks with a 70+ to stay competitivethroughout the season. I'm sure there are exceptions to this and some corps have started back in the pack so to speak, and caught up with the group, maybe their "tier'. Has anyone ever looked at this? So my prediction is you need to start at 70+ to hit 90+ in Indy.

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I have no data to back this up but it seems that if you don't come out of the gate scoring 70 or more you don't have much of a chance hitting 90 or better by Nationals.

Yes, you do. Dozens of Corps over the years have started out with scores at below 70 but finished with a score of 90 or better at finals. ( for just one example, Madison Scouts came out in 1999 with a 65.10 in their first show. They scored a 93.40 at Finals) . However, if you are looking to move up these days in placements over those in your similar pecking order in DCI, then coming out ready and stronger than usual for the 1st week of the season can't be viewed as not better than coming out the first week not quite as ready as your pecking order peers.

Edited by BRASSO
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I will promise to eat all my veggies, spinach, off my plate till I die, if the 10th-12th place Corps are scoring " 94 " at Finals this August, Screamer.

He also had the 1st and 2nd place corps scoring in the 99s. Unlikely to happen. I'll eat oat meal for a week for every meal if that happens.

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Yes, you do. Dozens of Corps over the years have started out with scores at below 70 but finished with a score of 90 or better at finals. ( for just one example, Madison Scouts came out in 1999 with a 65.10 in their first show. They scored a 93.40 at Finals) . However, if you are looking to move up these days in placements over those in your similar pecking order in DCI, then coming out ready and stronger than usual for the 1st week of the season can't be viewed as not better than coming out the first week not quite as ready as your pecking order peers.

Good points especially when you said coming out ready and stronger. THIS is the key. numbers are only numbers and many get hooked on these like they mean something other than a comparison. A corps coming out with a 65 one year and a 70 the next doesnt necessarily mean they are 5 points better or worse than the previous year . Now if they are 5 points ahead or behind corps that could mean something. It's like the old argument when a section gets a perfect score, does it mean perfect? NO not at all just a comparison.

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. A corps coming out with a 65 one year and a 70 the next doesnt necessarily mean they are 5 points better or worse than the previous year ..

Good point as well. Sometimes we'll even see a Corps score dip... and pretty significantly too... from one show to the next. Does it mean the Corps did a worse performance than the previous show ? Not neccessarily. They might have even done a better performance as a matter of fact. Then why the dip in score ? Sometimes its the mix of Corps has changed, other times the judges, other times the size of the panels, and so forth. A host of reasons can explain it. For example, most years the 12th place Corps at Finals has their score dip from what they scored in the Prelims. Did they perform not as well on Finals Night as they did in the prelims? Sometimes. But oftentimes however these 12th place Finalist Corps performed better at Finals than in the Prelims ( as the pressure to make Finals is off... and the marchers pumped and excited to perform on Finals Night). But due to the fact the mix of Corps is different at Finals than in the prelims, it its not unusual at all to see the 12th place Corps score dip at Finals over what they received in the Quarters and/ or the Semi's.

As for early scores in the season, I don't pay much attention to them. Most of the time, the panels are half size.. or don't have brass judges, or percussion judges, or guard judges and so forth. How modern day DCI apparently believes that they can adequately judge a supposed Drum & Bugle Corps competition without a Brass and / or a Drum judge sure will remain a complete mystery to me. If DCI, with these Corps imprimatur, doesn't believe that these early season shows should get their 100% commitment from the judging community, then I see no reason I should pay much attention to these early season Corps scores either. That said, sometimes the spreads between Corps within a pecking order from show to show once we get to around mid July with the full judging panel implementations can sometimes give us fans an inkling of where the Corps might fall that season within their grouped pecking orders.

Edited by BRASSO
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Good point as well. Sometimes we'll even see a Corps score dip... and pretty significantly too... from one show to the next. Does it mean the Corps did a worse performance than the previous show ? Not neccessarily. They might have even done a better performance as a matter of fact. Then why the dip in score ? Sometimes its the mix of Corps has changed, other times the judges, other times the size of the panels, and so forth. A host of reasons can explain it. For example, most years the 12th place Corps at Finals has their score dip from what they scored in the Prelims. Did they perform not as well on Finals Night as they did in the prelims? Sometimes. But oftentimes however these 12th place Finalist Corps performed better at Finals than in the Prelims ( as the pressure to make Finals is off... and the marchers pumped and excited to perform on Finals Night). But due to the fact the mix of Corps is different at Finals than in the prelims, it its not unusual at all to see the 12th place Corps score dip at Finals over what they received in the Quarters and/ or the Semi's.

As for early scores in the season, I don't pay much attention to them. Most of the time, the panels are half size.. or don't have brass judges, or percussion judges, or guard judges and so forth. How modern day DCI apparently believes that they can adequately judge a supposed Drum & Bugle Corps competition without a Brass and / or a Drum judge sure will remain a complete mystery to me. If DCI, with these Corps imprimatur, doesn't believe that these early season shows should get their 100% commitment from the judging community, then I see no reason I should pay much attention to these early season Corps scores either. That said, sometimes the spreads between Corps within a pecking order from show to show once we get to around mid July with the full judging panel implementations can sometimes give us fans an inkling of where the Corps might fall that season within their grouped pecking orders.

I would agree on early scores, missing judges ( for sure )and show dynamics ( participants ) it's pretty much how it works not only in DCI but WGI, BOA and competition in general.

Edited by GUARDLING
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I would agree on early scores, missing judges ( for sure )and show dynamics ( participants ) it's pretty much how it works not only in DCI but WGI, BOA and competition in general.

Looking at several years of scores on http://www.fromthepressbox.com/ it's fun to see how quickly a corps with an enhanced or limiting program starts to affect the judges scores.

Think of a corps that suddenly had a significant improvement in one year and watch how their score changed after the first few showings. The first couple of scores are often not reflective of their change in direction, but of where they finished the prior year.

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Looking at several years of scores on http://www.fromthepressbox.com/ it's fun to see how quickly a corps with an enhanced or limiting program starts to affect the judges scores.

Think of a corps that suddenly had a significant improvement in one year and watch how their score changed after the first few showings. The first couple of scores are often not reflective of their change in direction, but of where they finished the prior year.

Agree, I think early scores can change drastically. With some , although surprises can happen , sometimes how a corps progresses or doesn't depends on so many factors. Sometimes as simple as putting ego aside and LISTEN and make needed changes. Sometimes ( usually staff who haven't learned how to work the game to their advantage ) you can make your claim as to what judges SHOULD be looking for and explain away until you've run out of time. That , as well as dozens of other reasons can factor into why these things happen.

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