Tour of Champions Chester- Official Thread 7/30

[Whiskey]

Not to be a downer...but the weather for this show is at risk.

1. It will be hot, an Excessive Heat Warning is already in place, it does expire at 6pm Thursday, but it'll still be hot. If some rain can come together in the morning, it won't be as hot, but that won't be known until Thursday morning unfortunately.

2. The cold front that's plowing through the Midwest this morning is heading towards the area now. This will be the culprit for any line of storms that happens. The potential is great for a line of storms to develop out ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon and early evening. if there is some good new this morning, the speed of the system seems to be getting a bit faster depending on which model you choose. Consensus is, its slightly faster. What that means is...if that speeding up trend continues, if a squall line does form, it would move through earlier in the day.

I'll update tomorrow morning, will have a lot better idea then.

Been in the area all week and it has been very hot with tons of humidity. Low 90's but feels like 100's. There have been occasional storms that don't last too long but of course bring the humidity. In the evening it does cool a little but will definitely be a hot one with all the people in the stands.

[yogitom]

Not to be a downer...but the weather for this show is at risk.

1. It will be hot, an Excessive Heat Warning is already in place, it does expire at 6pm Thursday, but it'll still be hot. If some rain can come together in the morning, it won't be as hot, but that won't be known until Thursday morning unfortunately.

2. The cold front that's plowing through the Midwest this morning is heading towards the area now. This will be the culprit for any line of storms that happens. The potential is great for a line of storms to develop out ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon and early evening. if there is some good new this morning, the speed of the system seems to be getting a bit faster depending on which model you choose. Consensus is, its slightly faster. What that means is...if that speeding up trend continues, if a squall line does form, it would move through earlier in the day.

I'll update tomorrow morning, will have a lot better idea then.

Love you weather updates, but according to the Weather Channel website, the chances of storms during showtime are less than 50%. It's 45% at the start of the show and goes down form that point.

[rainshdw08]

Love you weather updates, but according to the Weather Channel website, the chances of storms during showtime are less than 50%. It's 45% at the start of the show and goes down form that point.

Thanks, I really appreciate that!!

Don't take this the wrong way but...we are talking about the Weather Channel sir. They are a big company, but in no way do they have more forecasters than the NWS (we have over 5000). They use computers and algorithms to make "local" forecasts, similar to Accuweather. We have 122 Local forecast offices where actual people who live in the area do the weather forecast for that area. They also talk to the forecast offices around them to verify what they are seeing. Not saying we always get it right by any means. We make mistakes too as weather is nearly impossible to forecast. In my opinion, its one of the hardest jobs in the world. What I mean by that is we don't like failure....we hate it...and when we're wrong it makes us upset. Haven't met a weather forecaster yet that doesn't fit that bill. I would trust the forecasters in NWS Philly before id trust any other source. They are on the ground floor so to speak. Wish I knew someone in that office, but I did send an email to see what they thought. :)

The reason why I didn't go into further detail with my original post was its still 36 hours away, with a dynamic system as this, a lot can change in that 24 hour period. So...in order to be more accurate, I left all that out. The current thinking according the NWS Philly is, a 60% chance of rain at 7pm....They think 7pm is the best time for rain chances. Of course....this is still too far away to be accurate.

another little tidbit: We hate long range forecasting...we are forced to do it because the public demands it. We hate it because, its hard to be very accurate after 72 hours in the summer, 24 in the winter. How many times have you looked at the 5 day forecast and 5 days later, it was what they said it was? now do that for 10 days... Would we like to do long range forecasting? Sure, if there was a more accurate way to predict it. There are some very good projects in place currently and I think in the next 10 years, long range forecasting will become so much better than it is now.

If I had my way, we'd do a 24 hour forecast in the summer and 6 in the winter...we would be pretty close to 100% accurate then lol.

Sorry for the non-Drum Corps rant :)

[cf144]

Been in the area all week and it has been very hot with tons of humidity. Low 90's but feels like 100's. There have been occasional storms that don't last too long but of course bring the humidity. In the evening it does cool a little but will definitely be a hot one with all the people in the stands.

Welcome to Philly in the summer. Lived here all my life and this is typical for July/August.

[ZachDrumCorps]

Welcome to Philly in the summer. Lived here all my life and this is typical for July/August.

We don't know what "dry heat" is here in Philadelphia

[Tobias]

The cadets are going to win every contest for the rest of the season because of the color change. That's all they needed. Really.

I think the fact that they are the last top 5 to clean because of the show demand is why they fell behind. They've had a few days to dig in and add some impacts and then clean. I do think the color changes will add visual contrast and intensity since the palate will better fit the music they're playing. Color change alone wouldn't really have an effect on placement but this last surge is not just about cold change but more of the final stage in a show that's evolving into its full self. Edited July 29, 2015 by Tobias

[Sky Pyro]

Yes it will be hot , like inferno hot. And with that Crown will be setting the tone tonight so these other corps better bring it,

Or it may be time to see crown ride the wave to gold.

I marched high level senior corp for 8 years and I have a very particular fancy for what I see and hear.

I truly love the sport and all the performers I may pick on shows here and there, it it just my fancy coming out.

Will we ever see another group like early 90s star I'm not sure. Even this year every corp show hits a flat moment in their show

And it's hard to get me back in the zone when it hits. Even crown as much as I have loved them since (down the stretch they come)

Hit a flat this year, I will get into each show later or if asked. Cadets are a close second if only they kept the energy of the opener, wow.

[StuStu]

I think if the color of the uniform impacts the scoring that's a damming indictment of modern drum corps.

[DCI-86]

Of course costume/uniform colours impact scores (visual clarity, connection to theme, visual ge etc) otherwise everyone would march in street clothes!!!!!

[DrumManTx]

I think colors can have an affect on GE Visual for sure. I mean, if you're doing a show about nighttime and your colors are yellow, sky blue, white, bright green, that doesn't work. I can also see it affecting the Visual scores from up top just because different colors read better, hide things, ect. Not solely because of what color it is, just how it reads against the field.

If it's a drastic enough change to how the show is viewed, I can see Cadets change affecting GE Visual some. Not drastically, but if it works a lot better or worse than the previous ones, then I think it could affect it a few tenths. And this is a season where a few tenths matter A LOT.