2013 Predictions

[Cop]

Good thing I was looking forward to that! But I may yet be disappointed: not enough may go wrong!

Almost as soon as I had posted it, the saddest thing went wrong, went Glassmen withdrew from the 2013 schedule.

Otherwise though, it's too soon to say much about how right or wrong things are going. I had Cadets, Crown, and Blue Devils in the top three, and so far that seems likely. I had Phantom, Santa Clara, and Bluecoats in the top eight, and there's no reason yet to doubt that will come to pass. I had Crossmen and Blue Stars neck and neck, and so they are. Cavaliers I expected to show slight improvement, and they did at least beat Boston in their first show. My shakiest guesses, i.e., those likeliest to fail and thus truly satisfy my expectations of bad prognostication, are probably Boston at fifth, Madison at twelfth, Spirit at fourteenth, and Troopers at seventeenth. But we're only in the second of eight competition weeks. The West and East corps have yet to meet. Three corps haven't even had their first competition yet: Cascades, Jersey Surf, and Oregon Crusaders. Not to mention a sheaf of Open Class corps. Which leads to another change I pondered but failed to accurately predict: two new Open Class corps, the Columbians and Coastal Surge (although neither will be at O.C. Finals, so that doesn't affect placements). Isn't the clash of supposition and reality fun?

(Not directed at you, specifically, and not only about my post, but: Why would someone give a red minus to a simple prediction post? What does it mean to do that? Is the message, "I hate that you predicted my favorite corps lower than I want them to place"? Given that such mark-downs are anonymous, no one else knows which placement is so offensive, anyway. And what if that particular placement turns out to be right at the end of the season: does it frustrate the red-minuser then that the DCP system doesn't allow them to take back their post-scoring? Or do they secretly blame the predictor for somehow having made the prediction come to pass?)

I've been judged for pointing out, in your own words, how I believed your prediction were the most fantastic.

I've been judged and it seems, you win.

[N.E. Brigand]

I sympathize. We just can't win the internet.

[BLOODEVILS]

I am going out on a limb here and taking some risks:

1. Blue Devils; Visual GE. Visual Proficiency, Visual Anaylsis, Color Guard
2. The Cadets; Brass, Music Analysis, Percussion
3. Carolina Crown; Music GE All three of those I think will be within a point of each other.
4. Bluecoats
5. Phantom Regiment Approximately two points below the other two, but very very close to each other.
6. Santa Clara Vanguard In my humble opinion, does not have too much room to grow or weaken.
7. Madison Scouts
8. Blue Knights
9. Boston Crusaders
10. The Cavaliers
11. Spirit of Atlanta Huge block that could all switch around-- highly anticipate all five to be in finals. Would not be surprised of 9 out of 12 finalist break 90.
12. Blue Stars
13. The Troopers
14. Crossmen
15. Colts
16. Blue Devil B 12-16 is very tough, I think that they will all be very close with BDB a sleeper for finals

[N.E. Brigand]

12-16 is very tough, I think that they will all be very close with BDB a sleeper for finals.

You never know! Though over four contests, Vanguard Cadets have averaged less than a half-point behind BDB. And would either of them be able to surpass Oregon Crusaders, who bested them last year?

[BLOODEVILS]

You never know! Though over four contests, Vanguard Cadets have averaged less than a half-point behind BDB. And would either of them be able to surpass Oregon Crusaders, who bested them last year?

Who knows! I think it will be very close and I bet Oregon Crusaders will make a lot of noise with their scores today. I just have a feeling about BDB, ya'know? And also really like the idea of having two Blue Devils' units in finals despite unlikelihood.

[Jerseyboy]

After last night, you and I both look like prophets!

there were only 4 judges ;at night.

no guard, brass, drums ,judges.

Crossmen Will be in the mix come august.

last season

June 26th =============SEMIS

Crossmen 63.7----------------84.90

Colts 63.6 ----------------------79.20

[Fan of the Arts]

Forget the fact that it's WAY too early. It's all for fun.

1. Carolina Crown - I believe that they will finally find their luster, and harness their dynamic designs into something that's awe inspiring and 1st place achievable.

2. Blue Devils - They'll still have the same thunder they had this season, but it is time for a new champion.

3. Santa Clara Vanguard - Bringing them back to the top 3. The last time was 2004. They have one of the best perc/brass writers in all of drum corps, and this year's production was outstanding.

4/5/6. Cadets/Phantom Regiment/Bluecoats - it's a toss up between these two.

7. Cavaliers - Like Phantom Regiment after 2009, they will rise back up, but it will be a slow rise.

8. Blue Knights - Personally I'd love see my favorite corps make the top 8 again, and they have the design team to do it.

9/10. Madison Scouts/Boston Crusaders - Two corps that have impressed and produced fan favorites as of recent years.

11. Crossmen - They got the fire started back up, and they wont stop any time soon.

12. Spirit of Atlanta - Still a finals corps, I just don't know how far they'll move up.

I would write in the rest, but I'm too lazy too.

Yes it is way too early for predictions. All I can say is your predictions are way off at the moment.

Irving

Fan of the Arts

[DCFAN]

I consider XMEN, Blue Stars, and Troopers currently in the hunt for finals. I think we will have a clear picture

of who will be the favorite after the first regional.

[Scout]

1. Blue Devils
   
2. Crown
   
3. SCV
   
4. Cadets
   
5. Phantom Regiment
   
6. Madison Scouts
   
7. Bluecoats
   
8. Spirit of Atlanta
   
9. The Cavaliers
   
10. Boston
    
11. Blue Knights
    
12. The Troopers
    
13. Crossmen
    
14. Blue Stars
    

[N.E. Brigand]

Since we have, as of last night, a first score for every World Class corps, I took a look back at how much each of them has improved from their first show to Quarterfinals/Prelims in the past five years and came up with a figure of average daily score increase. For instance, Carolina Crown averages an increase of 0.4610 per day, while Cascades average an increase of 0.2893 per day. Accordingly, if they all hold to their averages--which of course won't happen--these would be their standings after Prelims on Aug. 8:

1. 96.250 Carolina Crown

2. 96.198 Blue Devils

3. 95.840 Cadets

4. 92.194 Phantom Regiment

5. 91.791 Santa Clara Vanguard

6. 91.247 Bluecoats

7. 88.679 Madison Scouts

8. 88.564 Blue Knights

9. 88.207 Cavaliers

10. 84.826 Spirit of Atlanta

11. 84.390 Blue Stars

12. 83.954 Boston Crusaders

13. 80.779 Crossmen

14. 80.527 Colts

15. 78.212 Troopers

16. 77.913 Academy

17. 77.891 Oregon Crusaders

18. 74.247 Pacific Crest

19. 73.098 Mandarins

20. 68.409 Pioneer

21. 65.751 Jersey Surf

22. 64.562 Cascades

One further note on method: Open Class corps tend to have a higher average score improvement than World Class corps, so to calculate Oregon's average, I derived a factor based on other corps who have moved from Open Class to World Class.

This list is not a prediction. It is based, after all, on just two scores per year. It's just something to look back on in six weeks and see who fared better or worse than their historical averages.