PC Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Think of hostrauser's list as a (week-long) statistically-savvy snapshot. As suggested by my Dickens quote in the other thread, corps can change the course of their fates. If they don't, this is probably how they'll end up. ""Wyrd oft neredh unfaegne eorl, thonne his ellen deah!" It might be interesting to look at his first-week rankings for the past five years compared to the slate of Finalists. Bold indicates a corps that moved up or down by at least two positions. 2009 1. Blue Devils "1930" >>> 1st 2. Cavaliers "The Great Divide" >>> 4th 3. Holy Name Cadets "West Side Story" >>> 3rd 4. Carolina Crown "The Grass Is Always Greener" >>> 2nd 5. Phantom Regiment "The Red Violin" >>> 9th 6. Santa Clara Vanguard "Ballet for Martha" >>> 5th 7. Bluecoats "Imagine" >>> 6th 8. Blue Stars "The Factory" >>> 8th 9. Blue Knights "Shiver" >>> 11th 10. Boston Crusaders "The Core of Temptation" >>> 7th 11. Glassmen "The Journey of ONE" >>> 10th 12. Madison Scouts "El Relampago" >>> 15th - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 16. Troopers "Western Side Story" >>> 12th 2010 1. Blue Devils "Through a Glass, Darkly" >>> 1st 2. Carolina Crown "A Second Chance" >>> 4th 3. The Cadets "Toy Souldier" >>> 5th 4. Bluecoats "Metropolis" >>> 3rd 5. Santa Clara Vanguard "Bartok" >>> 7th 6. Phantom Regiment "Into the Light" >>> 6th 7. The Cavaliers "Mad World" >>> 2nd 8. Boston Crusaders "Thy Kingdom Come" >>> 9th 9. Blue Stars "Houdini" >>> 8th 10. Blue Knights "Europa" >>> 11th 11. Madison Scouts >>> 10th 12. Glassmen "The Prayer Cycle" >>> 12th 2011 1. Cavaliers "XtraordinarY" >>> 3rd 2. Cadets "Between Angels and Demons" >>> 1st 3. Blue Devils "The Beat My Heart Skipped" >>> 2nd 4. Carolina Crown "Rach Star" >>> 4th 5. Bluecoats "Brave New World" >>> 7th 6. Phantom Regiment "Juliet" >>> 5th 7. Madison Scouts "New York Morning" >>> 10th 8. Santa Clara Vanguard "The Devil's Staircase" >>> 6th 9. Blue Stars "ReBourne" >>> 11th 10. Boston Crusaders "Revolution" >>> 8th 11. Blue Knights "En English Folk Song Suite" >>> 9th 12. Glassmen "My Mortal Beloved" >>> 13th - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 13. Spirit of Atlanta "ATL Confidential" >>> 12th 2012 1. Carolina Crown "For the Common Good" >>> 2nd 2. The Cadets "12.25" >>> 4th 3. Blue Devils "Cabaret Voltaire" >>> 1st 4. Phantom Regiment "Turandot" >>> 3rd 5. Bluecoats "Unmasqued" >>> 6th 6. The Cavaliers "15 Minutes of Fame" >>> 8th 7. Santa Clara Vanguard "Music of the Starry Night" >>> 5th 8. Madison Scouts "Reframed" >>> 10th 9. Boston Crusaders "The Titans" >>> 7th 10. Spirit of Atlanta "Sin City" >>> 11th 11. Blue Stars "The Blue World" >>> 13th 12. Blue Knights "Avian" >>> 10th - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 15. Crossmen "Fragile" >>> 12th 2013 1. Carolina Crown "E=mc2" >>> 1st 2. Blue Devils "The re:Rite of Spring" >>> 2nd 3. The Cadets "Side x Side" >>> 3rd 4. Santa Clara Vanguard "Les Miserables" >>> 4th 5. Phantom Regiment "Triumphant Journey" >>> 6th 6. Bluecoats "To Look for America" >>> 5th 7. Madison Scouts "Corps of Brothers" >>> 9th 8. Blue Knights "NoBeginningNoEnd' >>> 10th 9. The Cavaliers "Secret Society" >>> 7th 10. Boston Crusaders "Rise" >>> 8th 11. Spirit of Atlanta "Speakeasy" >>> 11th 12. Pacific Crest "Transfixed" >>> 16th - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 13. Blue Stars "Voodoo" >>> 12th Do you see any trends? I notice two: in four of five years, Boston improved their initial standing by at least two places, and in four of five years, Madison dropped from their initial standing by at least two places. This is getting just plain silly. These aren't handicap numbers made up by Hostrauser acting as a bookie. These are just number-crunching the first week's statistical results - and all the numbers and data-points are just judges first guesses at the very beginning of the season. There are way too many balls in the air and wildcards to draw ANY kind of conclusions - except to debunk the critics carping that these numbers don't reflect their fantasy orgasmic finals wet dreams. This thread had already built up how many pages of predictions and commentary before there were any scores or actual performance competitions at all? And, now, with at least a modest early handful of numbers to crunch a lot pipe dreams have gone up in smoke. Deflating the gasbags is a really helpful service and Hostrauser's numbers really do tend to make that happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris ncsu Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Them's lotsa words, relax! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 This is getting just plain silly. Drat. I was going for complexly silly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRASSO Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 This is getting just plain silly. . with at least a modest early handful of numbers to crunch a lot pipe dreams have gone up in smoke. Deflating the gasbags is a really helpful service . And its not yet July, 1st too. Wait'll we see the gasbags get deflated on the 4th of July weekend scores too. We might be able to even call off the entire season by then and toss these gasbags into the DCP dumpster out back after we giv'em a quick 2 in the hat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarchandPlay Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 (edited) Updated prediction: 1. Blue Devils 2. Bluecoats 3. Carolina Crown 4. The Cadets 5. The Cavaliers 6. Santa Clara Vanguard 7. Phantom Regiment 8. Blue Stars 9. Madison Scouts 10. Boston Crusaders 11. Troopers 12. Blue Knights Edit: forgot Blue Knights, but honestly it's hard to say who will be in or out of the top 12 currently. Wouldn't shock me if they were that group come August. Edited July 6, 2014 by MarchandPlay 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gloryah Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Updated prediction: 1. Blue Devils 2. Bluecoats 3. Carolina Crown 4. The Cadets 5. The Cavaliers 6. Santa Clara Vanguard 7. Phantom Regiment 8. Blue Stars 9. Madison Scouts 10. Boston Crusaders 11. Troopers 12. Spirit of Atlanta You might want to update that again. BK will certainly be in the top 12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarchandPlay Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 (edited) Certainly is a strong word for July 5. I do think they will be in finals, but maybe my subconscious is correct... Edited July 6, 2014 by MarchandPlay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRASSO Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Updated prediction: 11. Troopers 12. Blue Knights I love the Troopers... but not THIS much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Why not? That would only be an improvement of two places from last year for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRASSO Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 (edited) Why not? That would only be an improvement of two places from last year for them. I suppose anythings possible. I'm trying to think when it was the last time BK finished behind the Troopers at Finals. Its so long ago, I can't remember. I think it was some time ago out west where Arnold S;was first seen pumping iron for onlookers at Venice Beach or back east when Madonna was still a Virgin. Edited July 6, 2014 by BRASSO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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