Liahona Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 As much as I never agree with tesmusic I have to now. Who would have thought after madison got 8th that they would end up 13th? Nobody is safe anymore and one small slip up costs alot. A real rough season for Madison and fans...and I was not all that happy with Boston's competitive placement either...not a knock on the members at all... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snare_guy_83 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 I won't predict placements until after all the program announcements have been made next spring, too many variables until then. However, I do have some fun facts... Since 2001, here are the percentages of the times the champion corps won each caption, in descending order. GE: 94% Music: 75% Visual: 63% Guard: 56% Brass: 50% Percussion: 38% The most common combination from a champion is winning all captions except Percussion, which has been done 4 times (2002=2nd, 2003=3rd, 2010=4th, and 2014=2nd). All but Brass done 2 times in 2009 and 2012, and only GE and Music done 2 times as well in 2011 and 2016. The other 8 combinations have not been duplicated. We all know GE is very important as well as and the CG implementation into GE and Visual, but by the numbers the overall Music has been a bigger factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrumManTx Posted September 6, 2016 Author Share Posted September 6, 2016 The Academy has the really tough job of staying in. I would be shocked if Boston Crusaders are sitting in 12th again and you can bet Madison Scouts will be doing everything in their power to get back in, and not just by a little bit. I have faith they can do it, it's just a matter of strategically increasing the difficulty and complexity enough to stay ahead of those behind them, which they have been doing since 2014 as well as improving in each caption. 2016 was the result of a trend they started in 2014 and baring any big changes I don't see them slowing down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liahona Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 The Academy has the really tough job of staying in. I would be shocked if Boston Crusaders are sitting in 12th again and you can bet Madison Scouts will be doing everything in their power to get back in, and not just by a little bit. I have faith they can do it, it's just a matter of strategically increasing the difficulty and complexity enough to stay ahead of those behind them, which they have been doing since 2014 as well as improving in each caption. 2016 was the result of a trend they started in 2014 and baring any big changes I don't see them slowing down. Boston will be 13th or worse..haven't you been paying attention to all the news... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrumManTx Posted September 6, 2016 Author Share Posted September 6, 2016 Boston will be 13th or worse..haven't you been paying attention to all the news... That's why I said I'd be shocked if they were 12th. :p 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snare_guy_83 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 The most a 12th placed corps has moved the next year is 5 spots to 7th by Crossmen 1989-1990. Under the current score sheet, it is up 4 spots to 8th by Bluecoats 2000-2001. I understand the hype of Boston, but that new team has to learn how work together as well. It's not like a full corps staff just went there. I think 9th is the realistically the highest for them, unless some craziness happens. Academy will have to continue to build complexity to earn a spot in the top 12 again, Crossmen will be pressured to stay where they are at (only 1.175 ahead of Boston), and Blue Stars just lost their music arrangers. In the 3 day average used for captions/sub-captions, Boston was 12th in all of them except Color Guard and Visual Proficiency where they were 11th, by 0.05 and 0.07 respectively over The Academy. So I think the goal is to move up 2-3 placements in each of those, which may not affect the over score/placements that much depending on the spreads, will start moving them in the right direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liahona Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 (edited) The most a 12th placed corps has moved the next year is 5 spots to 7th by Crossmen 1989-1990. Under the current score sheet, it is up 4 spots to 8th by Bluecoats 2000-2001. I'm never going by historical stats again after this past season...I predicted that Madison Scouts would be in finals and Boston would be out of finals...the day of semi's...citing that only 6 other times in DCI history has a 13th place corps in prelims/quarters gone on to get into finals...my logic was flawed! Edited September 6, 2016 by Liahona Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wever34 Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 So Crossmen and Academy miss out? Bones is solidly top 12 and Academy is only going in one direction. Puff, puff pass please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GUARDLING Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 (edited) I'm never going by historical stats again after this past season...I predicted that Madison Scouts would be in finals and Boston would be out of finals...the day of semi's...citing that only 6 other times in DCI history has a 13th place corps in prelims/quarters gone on to get into finals...my logic was flawed! There's always the exception BUT Youre right. way back in May I said 1 or possibly 2 corps usually in finals could be out. I was lectured by a now poster in time out that I was wrong and all you have to do is look at the stats of the past and this would never happen. Well 1 was out for sure and the 2nd was pretty darn close to being out. My thoughts on this had nothing to do with guessing or hoping but my personal opinion on staff combos, chatter on direction by staff as well as admins. personalities or combinations of them, real contributions or just names on paper. Sometimes, although it's has its flaws and of course things can always change. It an be predicted by some of these things alone. Is it 100% , of course not, no more than predicting anything BUT when you have dealt with some it sure can be an indicator. This also did not limit itself to who was in or out . There were a few captions easily predictable with additions of some new staff scattered out among corps. Predictable? Maybe with some, 100% NO not at all, an indicator of possibilities? OH YEAH for sure. Edited September 7, 2016 by GUARDLING Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabMaster Posted September 8, 2016 Share Posted September 8, 2016 Maybe this has been covered before, but with the explanations that there is little upward movement year to year with the exception of Crossmen, as pointed out previously: What is the most precipitous drop in placement for a corps one year to the next within or out of the top 12? Madison this past year or Phantom a few years ago? Another corps entirely? And I don't mean a corps folding. I mean competing one year and the following year or more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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