kevingamin Posted September 17, 2006 Share Posted September 17, 2006 Gee...I'm no weatherman but we were watching the Weather Channel in the hotel on Friday night and everybody seemed to be predicting that it would be mostly moved out by the time Sunday morning rolled around. Which is weird because, at Prelims Saturday night, I was monitoring weather.com, Weather Channel's website, and the hour-by-hour forcast had the rain contining until 10 PM. That's 10 PM on SUNDAY. That's the same info the DCA people had. There simply was no guarantee the weather on Sunday would improve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnZ Posted September 17, 2006 Share Posted September 17, 2006 Morning Jim! In the week leading up to finals weekend the National Weather Service was predicting 100% chance of rain on Saturday, and 30% on Sunday. IIRC, the percentages were pretty consistent for several days, and on Friday night when i checked it from my hotel room. in fact I recall posting the then 'latest' weather forcast from the NWS on one of the threads here - long since updated, of course. Interesting factoid I picked up from all of this weather arguing is something called the "Mariner's 1-2-3 rule". Simple rule of thumb is that given a hurricane's predicted path, the margin of error could be 100-200-300 miles at 24-48-72 hours lead prediction time. pretty good rule, and 100 miles/24 hours difference is relevant to this argument. But that was two weeks ago - I came, got wet, and had a blast! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevingamin Posted September 17, 2006 Share Posted September 17, 2006 What I caught on Weather Channel was a map of the area of rain. PA/NY seemed covered on Sunday. But watching it in South Central PA I didn't get the Rochester percentages. Hugo also had an very unpredictable path when it hit land in 1990(?). Hugo hit SC and was supposed to head right at Philly. I was working in Philly that week and we decided to leave early to get home. In the 3-4 hours it took to get home Hugo was then pointed at Pittsburg (300 miles away). Hugo eventally went over KY and missed PA altogether in the space of 10 or so hours. Hugo made it to Ohio at tropical storm strength. I remember that night because I was at a high school football game with my marching band. We had to play from the stands (no surprise). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted September 17, 2006 Share Posted September 17, 2006 Hugo made it to Ohio at tropical storm strength. I remember that night because I was at a high school football game with my marching band. We had to play from the stands (no surprise). Yep, that was on a Friday. We were driving west on the PA Turnpike from Philly and had news stations on the radio to see how bad things were going to be when we got home. First part of the trip home we were going west and Hugos projected track was going west at about the same rate. Still remember one guy in the van saying "Ya think that ######s following us?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted September 17, 2006 Share Posted September 17, 2006 Morning Jim!In the week leading up to finals weekend the National Weather Service was predicting 100% chance of rain on Saturday, and 30% on Sunday. IIRC, the percentages were pretty consistent for several days, and on Friday night when i checked it from my hotel room. in fact I recall posting the then 'latest' weather forcast from the NWS on one of the threads here - long since updated, of course. Interesting factoid I picked up from all of this weather arguing is something called the "Mariner's 1-2-3 rule". Simple rule of thumb is that given a hurricane's predicted path, the margin of error could be 100-200-300 miles at 24-48-72 hours lead prediction time. pretty good rule, and 100 miles/24 hours difference is relevant to this argument. But that was two weeks ago - I came, got wet, and had a blast! Afternoon John B) Since I couldn't make it this year I didn't follow Rochesters forecast that closely. What I caught from time to time was it, as I was trying to see when we would dry out. Harrisburgs rain broke about 12 hours earlier (Sunday daybreak) than expected from what I remember. Perhaps Weather Channel puts up the "rain here" graphics even on the lower percentage chance of rain. Rain or no rain, sorry I missed this year but family problems cames first so no real regrets. Will have to remember that Mariners rule to see how that works out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gcsbaribc Posted September 17, 2006 Share Posted September 17, 2006 Yep, that was on a Friday. We were driving west on the PA Turnpike from Philly and had news stations on the radio to see how bad things were going to be when we got home. First part of the trip home we were going west and Hugos projected track was going west at about the same rate. Still remember one guy in the van saying "Ya think that ######s following us?" Hugo. Ugh. It hit my (parents) neighborhood with 100+ mph winds. Pretty scary. At least we weren't 100 miles closer to the coast (ie Charleston) which lost 1 out of 3 houses on the battery. What a mess, pine trees everywhere. Yeah you guys lucked out up in PA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audiodb Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 Ok...done. I saw it mentioned a couple of times but nobody ever gave a reasonable explanation as to why it could not be done. Well, they could have just cancelled prelims, I suppose. But when fans buy $25 tickets to a "rain or shine" prelim show, some of them will still show up, expecting to see a contest. There's one reason to go on with the show; there may be others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Ream Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 it's done, we all survived. now we plan for 07, hurricanes and all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary Matczak Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 Well, they could have just cancelled prelims, I suppose. But when fans buy $25 tickets to a "rain or shine" prelim show, some of them will still show up, expecting to see a contest. There's one reason to go on with the show; there may be others. not one reason,................THE Reason IMO, and a ###### good one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
camel lips Posted September 19, 2006 Share Posted September 19, 2006 Well, they could have just cancelled prelims, I suppose. But when fans buy $25 tickets to a "rain or shine" prelim show, some of them will still show up, expecting to see a contest. There's one reason to go on with the show; there may be others. The flip side to that argument of course is that if they held the show on sunday during better weather then MORE FANS could have seen it. DCA was in a bad spot with this show as far as the hurricane coming in.They had no way of predicting the weather and they were bound by contract not to put paint out on the field because its a soccar stadium and NOT a football stadium.I guess one could argue is that is where DCA made its mistake. DCA was watching the same weather that everyone else was watching.The weather reports really did have a cold hard fast answer to what the weather was going to be like on sunday so DCA made the decision to just get it over with and hold semis on SAT.In hind sight it was a bad call but at the time I think it was a good one. DCA can fix the problems of the field by selecting a FOOTBALL stadium in 2008 rather than a soccar staduim or baseball diamond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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