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The (Non) Pre-June Prediction Thread


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A list of ranges expressed so far in this thread (i.e. the highest and lowest these corps have been "placed")... This exemplifies what BRASSO was talking about regarding the concept of outliers. If everyone was right, we could have a very interesting Finals lineup. :)

Cadets: 1st - 6th (maybe not in Finals)

It certainly would be " interesting " if whoever predicted The Cadets would " maybe not make Finals " was correct.

That sure would shake things up a bit if this came true, huh ?

That said, the chances of The Cadets falling out of the Top 12 this year are about equal to the chances of 3 thousand 100 dollar bills mysteriously falling out of the skies in Bloomington Indiana on August 13th.

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1 Crown

2 Cadets

3 BD

4 Cavaliers

5 Bluecoats

6 Blue Stars

7 PR

8 SCV

9 Glassmen

10 Blue Knights

11 Crossmen

12 Academy

13 Madison

14 Boston

15 Troopers

16 Spirit

17 Colts

OOOOOoooo! Guess who's gonna use this post. Me! Chalk board fodder. Thanks!

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I have to put my 2 cents in on the discussion snout BK. While I'm undoubtedly the biggest BK honk, I do have some intimate knowledge of their operations as I recruit with them and I have 5 of my students/ex students in the corps!! I am sure The Troopers have gotten better they were a finalist 2 short seasons ago, that said BK has the best all around corps it's had in many moons!:) I don't know about ever cause they've not competed and Ill reserve that for later, but it's quite possibly the best one ever, we'll see!!! That said, I think BKs reign of finals and beyond is far from over. They did something that normally kills most corps in the activity- Change their show style and marching identity! This is important because thank of what happened to Madison when they decided to go a different route, etc.... BK did this without dropping from finals and truthfully got stronger a year ago even though the placement stayed the same! I have to admit in the fall when I heard they were doing English Folk music I was like- meh, but after hearing the music- I love the book! It's got a lot more meat to it and they're throwing down some notes for sure!!! The Troopers I'm sure are destined for great things, but BK has weathered rebuilding and retooling in a major way and now they're about to be stronger than ever!!! They've also got a great core nucleus that is going to keep coming back which is why this is the TIME FOR BK, and for the long term future! They've done it the right way and now they're ready.to kick some a**!! Be prepared for it- GO BK GET ENGLISH BABY!!!

Wes P

BK 97. 98

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OOOOOoooo! Guess who's gonna use this post. Me! Chalk board fodder. Thanks!

Send pix of your chalkboard please :-)

I know 11 and 12 are a little bit of a reach. But I would love to see both Xmen and Academy step into the the finals mix :-)

And I think the Gmen are going surprise some people this season.

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That said, the chances of The Cadets falling out of the Top 12 this year are about equal to the chances of 3 thousand 100 dollar bills mysteriously falling out of the skies in Bloomington Indiana on August 13th.

This is an accurate statement; when you see the 2011 Cadets you will quickly realize why the above statement is correct! :w00t:

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Can u be more specific about where the 100 dollar bills will be falling and a time frame??? I'm buying an flight right now, hahahahaha!!! Cadets falling outta finals would be like saying The Mavs are gonna win the NBA t.... Wait a minute the impossible did happen in the NBA- #### Mavs, I guess anything is possible!!!:):) But, The Cadets are not going out of finals I think we can bank on that!!

WP

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I disagree completely. I think The Troopers have an excellent shot at beating BK. Not saying that they will, but they sure could. Lots of reasons that they could and plenty of reasons that they won't. I will guarantee you that The Troopers will be better than last year. Despite the recent events with the bus crash, there are lots of things going very well with the corps in regards to the staff, the membership, and the design. Them changing where they rehearse for pre-tour had to help more than anything else.

Conversely, I do not know much about Blue Knights this year except that they are playing Holst suites on the field. I just don't see it, so the jury is still out for me when it comes to them.

We will all know before long though... :satisfied:

But when you're talking about BK you're likely not talking about a battle for 12th, but possibly Troopers needing to place 9th or 10th (or higher) to beat BK. If you had said Glassmen who seem to be the perennial 12th place finisher, I would agree they've got a shot.

Edited by BozzlyB
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A list of ranges expressed so far in this thread (i.e. the highest and lowest these corps have been "placed")... This exemplifies what BRASSO was talking about regarding the concept of outliers. If everyone was right, we could have a very interesting Finals lineup. :)

In order of 2010 Finals:

Blue Devils: 1st - 5th

Cavaliers: 1st - 5th

Bluecoats: 1st - 6th (maybe 7th)

Carolina Crown: 1st - 8th (!)

Cadets: 1st - 6th (maybe not in Finals)

Phantom Regiment: 3rd - 10th (!)

Santa Clara Vanguard: 3rd - 8th

Blue Stars: 5th - 12th (maybe 4th, maybe not in Finals)

Boston Crusaders: 7th - 14th

Madison Scouts: 5th - 13th

Blue Knights: 8th - 13th

Glassmen: 9th - 13th (maybe 14th to 18th -- astounding number of "not in Finals"s)

Granted, the unpredictability of the numbers is less surprising as you get towards Semifinals, but Boston's results are interesting, because they have the narrowest curve of anyone except maybe BD (i.e. just glancing through the thread, I'd guess that about 90% of replies said 9th, 10th or 11th). BK's results were similarly narrow.

Also, for the record, I've heard personal anecdotes from experience watching a corps rehearse, like "[corps x] is on fire this year and will definitely place [higher than what is statistically likely]" for Glassmen, BK, Scouts, Boston, Blue Stars, SCV.... yeah, everybody.

This is pretty much an annual occurrence across the board.

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Send pix of your chalkboard please :-)

I know 11 and 12 are a little bit of a reach. But I would love to see both Xmen and Academy step into the the finals mix :-)

And I think the Gmen are going surprise some people this season.

I'd love to see Xmen and Academy in the top 12 as well but Madison in 13th? You can't be serious. Who are you trying to #### off? :tongue:

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I'd love to see Xmen and Academy in the top 12 as well but Madison in 13th? You can't be serious. Who are you trying to #### off? :tongue:

Why in the world would someone get po'd at a pre-season prediction?? Every single one is a WAG...

Anyway I started off with last years order .. bumped Gmen up on a hunch, couldn't see BK missing, so Madison and everyone below got bumped down. No mysterious motivation. There's pretty much no way to *add* corps to finals without removing another corps blink.gif

Do I think it likely Xmen and Academy will both break into finals? Probably not, But this is just for fun. Right?

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