2017 PREDICTIONS!

[corps8294]

"Troppers" 

[CorpsRelic]

5 hours ago, BRASSO said:

 I predict that Academy will have an entertaining show that once again will be a huge crowd pleaser from coast to coast.

Brasso..The Crowd Pleaser you can count on will travel "Coast to Coast" literally!  THE ACADEMY will make it out to Boston's Show In Lawrence, MA. August 3rd with a real fun  head to head with the Crusaders and the Scouts : - ) CAN'T WAIT... YOU WILL BE AMAZED! GURANTEED to be smiling Ear to Ear : - ) 

[BRASSO]

43 minutes ago, CorpsRelic said:

Brasso.. THE ACADEMY will make it out to Boston's Show In Lawrence, MA. August 3rd with a real fun  head to head with the Crusaders and the Scouts 

 The Blue Knights come into the Lion's Den too, CorpsRelic.

[CorpsRelic]

52 minutes ago, BRASSO said:

 The Blue Knights come into the Lion's Den too, CorpsRelic.

I have a warm spot in my heart for the Blue Knights....they were the one consistent World Class Corps that for many years would find a way to make it out here to  perform at our Local Arizona Sun in the 90's and now The Academy shows held in Phoenix/Mesa/Glendale. And I had the pleasure of attending a good number of "Drums Across the Rockies" shows and a Finals in Denver, terrific venue is the Mile High Stadium! I alway purchased VIP tickets to watch shows from the massive Pressbox/lounge area. 

[cfirwin3]

On 4/2/2017 at 11:56 PM, George Dixon said:

Eh that has little to do with why I feel it is likely they will drop out 

its hard to make DCI finals for the first time, but often proves tougher to stay there

Several corps that finished just behind them last season will be gunning to overtake them. Only one of those has to succeed

It's just basic math as DCI annually lately has to squeeze 13-15 finals caliber corps into a 12 corps finals

Ask Madison, or Colts, or Troppers etc.

That's only half of the picture.  If any corps is going to be working towards making finals.... then they are at risk of not making finals.

But... what if an organization decides to design, construct, and instruct a show that is serious about contending?  Even if the group is young, less experienced, and technically unable to contend, It would be nearly impossible to derail that kind of approach and mentality (unless 6-8 corps were serious about contending... which is also entirely possible).

I get the feeling that Academy is looking more forward than behind... the question remaining: How many others are doing the same?

This was the thinking that changed everything for the Bluecoats about 15 or so years ago.  Someone dared to ask "Who are we competing with?  How high do we want to shoot?".  This mentality did the same for Carolina Crown in even less time.  Star did this (and burned out... or moved on... depending on your favored version of the story).  Even the Blue Devils (in another time and distant culture) pulled this off, and they never went away after that.

The clever design of their show last year, and mature manner in which it was executed reminded me too much of some other quick ascending giants for me to count Academy out as 'fighting to stay in'.  The crowd was/is practically begging them to notch it up.

Like I said, the biggest problem is with the ones ahead of them from last year.  Are those corps thinking about contending as well.  And I think that most of them are.  Heck... in a world with those bombastic/corny/jazz-loving/head-bobbing/hip-swaying/blast-o-ramic Bluecoats can win... why can't anyone win?!  We ought to know by now that contending is much more of a choice than it is a destiny.  It always has been.

Anyone shooting for 6-12 place is at risk.  Anyone with a near-future optimistic eye on 1... watch out for them.

[BRASSO]

52 minutes ago, cfirwin3 said:

That's only half of the picture.  If any corps is going to be working towards making finals.... then they are at risk of not making finals.

But... what if an organization decides to design, construct, and instruct a show that is serious about contending?  Even if the group is young, less experienced, and technically unable to contend, It would be nearly impossible to derail that kind of approach and mentality (unless 6-8 corps were serious about contending... which is also entirely possible).

I get the feeling that Academy is looking more forward than behind... the question remaining: How many others are doing the same?

This was the thinking that changed everything for the Bluecoats about 15 or so years ago.  Someone dared to ask "Who are we competing with?  How high do we want to shoot?".  This mentality did the same for Carolina Crown in even less time.  Star did this (and burned out... or moved on... depending on your favored version of the story).  Even the Blue Devils (in another time and distant culture) pulled this off, and they never went away after that.

The clever design of their show last year, and mature manner in which it was executed reminded me too much of some other quick ascending giants for me to count Academy out as 'fighting to stay in'.  The crowd was/is practically begging them to notch it up.

Like I said, the biggest problem is with the ones ahead of them from last year.  Are those corps thinking about contending as well.  And I think that most of them are.  Heck... in a world with those bombastic/corny/jazz-loving/head-bobbing/hip-swaying/blast-o-ramic Bluecoats can win... why can't anyone win?!  We ought to know by now that contending is much more of a choice than it is a destiny.  It always has been.

Anyone shooting for 6-12 place is at risk.  Anyone with a near-future optimistic eye on 1... watch out for them.

 Since DCI is a score competition, and there are financial rewards for higher placements, every Corps in both the Open Class Division, World Class Division, and now the relatively new Soundsport Division are seeking to improve placement wise from last season. As such, each Corps has realistic placement expectations within their current peer mix of Corps for the current season. If we selected a half dozen Corps from both the Open Class and WC at random most of us here on DCP can easily determine the names of the Corps they can realistically be expected to be competing with this summer in the placement pecking order that we call DCI.  Long term, the vast majority of the current Open Class and World Class Corps have settled in to the mix of Corps they feel comfortable with competing with in terms of the commitment of time, energy, and financial & staff resources.  To this extent then, the Blue Devils  A, SCV, Bluecoats are as realistic in this then long term as are Jersey Surf, Spartans, and Pacific Crest, Blue Devils B and so forth. Most Corps staffers, including the Blue Devils, rarely talk " placements " for that season with the marchers. They might mention it on occasion, but the primary focus , with all the Corps and ensembles in all 3 Divisions of DCI, is for each member to " improve their skills and become the best marcher they can possibly be by the end of the season ".  Every once in awhile, we might see a Corps or two deciding they want " more " in competition, beyond their current pecking order mix of  Corps. Genesis comes to mind. Unlike the vast majority of the Open Class Corps, they have decided that they want " more " than Open Class Division competition, and have committed themselves with resources, time and energy to make their status in World Class Division become a reality. But we have heard no efforts are being made to compete with the Top 12 Corps... not this season anyway. The Spartans are quite happy to serve their youth in the capacity and levels they have chosen for themselves... a quite successful model, by the way.. as it has worked for them for over half a century now. Hundreds of elite level seeking Drum Corps over the years probably wished they adopted the Spartans model now in retrospect, as the Spartans have served more youth in their Corps over the last half a century  than all the elite Corps that are but a distant memory to us all now. These folded Corps planning& organization, alottment of resources, etc for current and future competition, if we measure success by the numbers of youth served, was of course undeniably subpar compared to that of the Spartans.

Edited April 18, 2017 by BRASSO

[cfirwin3]

Just now, BRASSO said:

 Since DCI is a score competition, and there are financial rewards for higher placements, every Corps in both the Open Class Division, World Class Division, and now the relatively new Soundsport Division are seeking to improve placement wise from last season. As such, each Corps has realistic placement expectations within their current peer mix of Corps for the current season. If we selected a half dozen Corps from both the Open Class and WC at random most of us here on DCP can easily determine the names of the Corps they can realistically be expected to be competing with this summer in the placement pecking order that we call DCI.  Long term, the vast majority of the current Open Class and World Class Corps have settled in to the mix of Corps they feel comfortable with competing with in terms of the commitment of time, energy, and financial & staff resources.  To this extent then, the Blue Devils  A, SCV, Bluecoats are as realistic in this then long term as are Jersey Surf, Spartans, and Pacific Crest, Blue Devils B and so forth. Most Corps staffers, including the Blue Devils, rarely talk " placements " for that season with the marchers. They might mention it on occasion, but the primary focus , with all the Corps and ensembles in all 3 Divisions of DCI, is for each member to " improve their skills and become the best marcher they can possibly be by the end of the season ".  Every once in awhile, we might see a Corps or two deciding they want " more " in competition, beyond their current pecking order mix of  Corps. Genesis comes to mind. Unlike the vast majority of the Open Class Corps, they have decided that they want " more " than Open Class Division competition, and have committed themselves with resources, time and energy to make their status in World Class Division become a reality. But we have heard no efforts are being made to compete with the Top 12 Corps... not this season anyway. The Spartans are quite happy to serve their youth in the capacity and levels they have chosen for themselves... a quite successful model, by the way.. as it has worked for them for over half a century now. Hundreds of elite level seeking Drum Corps over the years probably wished they adopted the Spartans model now in retrospect, as the Spartans have served more youth in their Corps over the last half a century  than all the elite Corps that are but a distant memory to us all now. These folded Corps planning& organization, alottment of resources, etc for current and future competition, if we measure success by the numbers of youth served, was of course undeniably subpar compared to that of the Spartans.

Not sure that you are in disagreement with my comments.  Placement (which doesn't have to be specifically talked about), in general, is a choice.  A choice of "comfort" and bound to resources, perhaps... as you suggest.  The only reason that we can comment on the perceived pecking order, is because of the static choices that organizations make.  But the Academy doesn't appear to be making static choices... they appear (to me) to be quite active and in pursuit of something.  Merely working to improve placement is an ambiguous endeavor and success largely relies on the achievement (or lack thereof) of those around you.  Corps don't tend to 'step their way' to contending.  Corps choose to contend and risk placing 2-6(ish), sometimes consistently.   Or they choose to place as finalists and risk not placing at all.  But no corps really choose to place in the middle of the pack... they just end up there by doing well in making finals or doing not so well in contending.  There is almost always a gap (or two) in scoring in there that confirms it.  We could name 6-ish corps that could win this year... we could name 10-ish corps that could place.  We could name 3-ish corps that could place well or turn out to be (by design or proficiency) unable to win... But I think that the intentions of an organization are on either side of that divide.  Academy's success (I am positing) depends on their philosophy for the future.  And I am willing to bet that it is more aggressive than just making finals.

If BK (for example) chooses to contend (and I think they could)... then Bluecoats, Crown, Cadets, SCV, Devils, etc. may have to deal with a placement lower than them while striving for the same.  The Cadets (for another example) are NOT middle packers. They are proficiently capable of winning. They even attempt to design winning shows. They were the center of a TV documentary based on this very premise.  But there they are, not winning.  But they AREN'T tiered, they aren't a middle pack finalist. They aren't comfortable, and they really aren't lacking financial resources.  Their proverbial "rut" is not with a lack of desire to contend... and thus, the idea that they would not make finals is absurd.  Same for the Cavies... even PR...

But it's a different story when you get below that 6-8th line.  The goals are different.  Any group that has those goals is at risk of not placing.

I don't think I'm over-simplifying it.  A group that wants to compete with SCV (who is competing with the Devils) is better off than the group that wants to compete for 'better than 10th or 9th' (or something like that).  It starts with self-classification and designing shows that match it.

[BRASSO]

1 hour ago, cfirwin3 said:

  Academy's success (I am positing) depends on their philosophy for the future.  And I am willing to bet that it is more aggressive than just making finals.

 

 I don't disagree that the Academy has a different " philosophy for the future " than ( for the example that I used ) the Spartans. Lots of Corps set out with agressive plans, agressive missions, that are no longer with us. Many had outstanding brief success too. But when placement slippage began to occur, such Corps had no long term history that could guide them thru unprecedented ( for them ) falling placements, fortunes, loss of key staffers, loss of marchers, etc. The Spartans ( I could utilize other Corps like this equally for examples) would frequently have changover of staff, marchers, but their planning always anticipated this, and every season too. I guess my point is that Corps choose the path that they feel most comfortable with regarding time, energy, resources, committments of staffers, marchers, volunteers. Corps that can  choose a path most suitable for their resources, generally are able to become the Corps that survive for 50 years or more. DCI has had lots of flashes in the pan Corps that rose up the placement ranks, had a few years of success at or near the top of the mountain, then crashed and burned ( or threw in the towel )... then disappeared altogether. As a matter of fact, insofar as the World Class Division is concerned, this is far more the norm than the exception, as I'm sure you ( and many others here ) are aware. Academy may become the next Blue Devils.  Or the next 27th Lancers, Glassmen, Anaheim Kingsmen, Freelancers, Star of Indiana, and so forth.  Nobody knows the future. Thats what makes watching this all unfold so intriguing, imo.   I loved the Academy's show last season, and their upward placement trajectory is fun to watch as it has been done so not by doing esoteric, complex shows, but with easily identifiable themes, appealing music, fan friendly shows. Whats NOT to like with this ascendancy so far from them within the World Class Division of DCI that they have chosen for themselves ?

Edited April 18, 2017 by BRASSO

[CorpsRelic]

I have found the ongoing dialog between cfirwin3 and Brasso most stimulating and enlightening. I just wanted to chime in with my years past experience with the now defunct SIMPLEX MINUTEMEN (1965-72) as a competitive neighbor, marching competitively with the current being discussed topic. I speak of the  SPARTANS,, a shining example and "model" established by New Hampshire's treasured, and long admired and respected Corps program. Located  just up the road from my  hometown of Gardner, Ma and  just across the border in Nashua, NH. Both our Corps members consistently and without much political rangling seemlessly jumped from each others Corps in friendly competiton..  The Minutemen of my time was the first fully corporately sponsored Corps of the now defunct "Simplex Time Recorder, Co. that "offered" its membership international travel as an exhibition and Parade Corps. The Spartans offered the challenge and excitment of being a on the field "Comptitive" Corps. two different "Corps Experiences".

What the SPARTANS have done, and the Minutemen was unable to sustain, was the fact that our Corporate Sponsor and our lifeline failed taking our Corps with it in 1980-81? I believe. : - (  The SPARTANS to this day is a stateside, locally embraced supported and well financed Open Class Corps that is so focused on being "JUST" who they are and are as "well aware and committed to maintaining and servercing and targeting the specific needs and talents of its membership.  From what I was able to observe, during those years and seemingly to this day, the SPARTANS wish and seasoned managementr maintain its goal and purpose a model of success and satisfaction in,keeping their current place among the ranks of DCI and the Drum Corps Activity itself..

In short (and I appoligize for thie length of this. I am a wordsmith. I firmly believe, and the proof is their historic longevity, is that the SPARTANS continued success and achievements has always been consistent with their Corps Mission statement.  Salute SPARTANS! and RIP  to my beloved Simplex Minutemen.

 

[BRASSO]

11 minutes ago, CorpsRelic said:

I have found the ongoing dialog between cfirwin3 and Brasso most stimulating and enlightening. I just wanted to chime in with my years past experience with the now defunct SIMPLEX MINUTEMEN (1965-72) as a competitive neighbor, marching competitively with the current being discussed topic. I speak of the  SPARTANS,, a shining example and "model" established by New Hampshire's treasured, and long admired and respected Corps program. Located  just up the road from my  hometown of Gardner, Ma and  just across the border in Nashua, NH. Both our Corps members consistently and without much political rangling seemlessly jumped from each others Corps in friendly competiton..  The Minutemen of my time was the first fully corporately sponsored Corps of the now defunct "Simplex Time Recorder, Co. that "offered" its membership international travel as an exhibition and Parade Corps. The Spartans offered the challenge and excitment of being a on the field "Comptitive" Corps. two different "Corps Experiences".

What the SPARTANS have done, and the Minutemen was unable to sustain, was the fact that our Corporate Sponsor and our lifeline failed taking our Corps with it in 1980-81? I believe. : - (  The SPARTANS to this day is a stateside, locally embraced supported and well financed Open Class Corps that is so focused on being "JUST" who they are and are as "well aware and committed to maintaining and servercing and targeting the specific needs and talents of its membership.  From what I was able to observe, during those years and seemingly to this day, the SPARTANS wish and seasoned managementr maintain its goal and purpose a model of success and satisfaction in,keeping their current place among the ranks of DCI and the Drum Corps Activity itself..

In short (and I appoligize for thie length of this. I am a wordsmith. I firmly believe, and the proof is their historic longevity, is that the SPARTANS continued success and achievements has always been consistent with their Corps Mission statement.  Salute SPARTANS! and RIP  to my beloved Simplex Minutemen.

 

 Well said and a good assessment of how not all Corps serve the needs of youth ( and by choice with many Corps in DCI in Open Class, World Class, & Soundsport Div).,  in the same manner.

Edited April 18, 2017 by BRASSO