Blue Devils or the Field?

[BoaDci]

I really dont know enough yet.  The show this year sounds incredible.  So incredibly good.  As of right THIS moment (this could change by June), the clips Ive heard from all corps are giving me strong BD vibes.  (Voted BD)

[corps8294]

I'm thinking Pioneer has a really good shot at winning it all, this year. Mark my words, they will be turning some heads this summer.

[Tad_MMA]

I don't see SCV going anywhere. Why this summer? Since their last (co) championship, they've medaled ONCE. History is on BD's side. 2016 was their FIFTH failed attempt at a threepeat--following the first four losses was a win, so...

Won in '76/'77, lost in '78, won in '79.

Won in '79/'80, lost in '81; won in '82.

Won in '96/'97, lost in '98; won in '99.

Won in '09/'10, lost in '11; won in '12.

Won in '14/'15, lost in '16; should win in '17. ipso fatso, it's a very consistent stat. Also, all five losses were within a point. Close but no cigar.

[ShortAndFast]

Statistically, BD is overdue for a bronze. A 10 year average placement of 1.40 is unprecedented (c.f. Cadets 1983-1992 = 2.60, Cavaliers 1999-2008 = 1.80). Nobody can keep that level of excellence going forever...

... but still I voted "BD".

[jjeffeory]

It's too early to say...

I think we can throw out history. Didn't work so well for some other corps, and I don't think it will work for BD either.  If there's something fresh and new, that usually is what wins.

Going to be an interesting year whatever way things shake out. 

[mjoakes]

I'm gonna check out the Vegas odds first. But my gut says someone from the field.

[84BDsop]

2 hours ago, ShortAndFast said:

Statistically, BD is overdue for a bronze. A 10 year average placement of 1.40 is unprecedented (c.f. Cadets 1983-1992 = 2.60, Cavaliers 1999-2008 = 1.80). Nobody can keep that level of excellence going forever...

 

You really sure about that?

Average score at finals (so not including 1973): 95.78
Average score at DCI (so INCLUDING 1973): 95.10
Average score in winning seasons: 96.84
Last time the corps finished below 90 at finals: 1975
Last time the corps finished lower than 5th:  1974 (9th...first year in finals, 2nd trip to DCI)
 

Championship wins;  17

Captions:

15 GE
24 Brass
13 Drums
17 M&M/Vizh
17 Guard

Average placements:

Corps: 2.38
Brass: 1.97
Drums: 3.5
M&M/Vizh: 2.52

Guard: 1.78

 

That's a pretty ####### impressive 44 year run...and you'd be hard-pressed to find ANY competitive group in ANY activity - amateur or pro -- with that kind of consistency over 4+ decades...especially given the yearly member turnover.

Edited June 7, 2017 by 84BDsop

[theonlyfizzle]

2 hours ago, ShortAndFast said:

Statistically, BD is overdue for a bronze. A 10 year average placement of 1.40 is unprecedented (c.f. Cadets 1983-1992 = 2.60, Cavaliers 1999-2008 = 1.80). Nobody can keep that level of excellence going forever...

... but still I voted "BD".

 

8 minutes ago, 84BDsop said:

You really sure about that?

Average score at finals (so not including 1973): 95.78
Average score at DCI (so INCLUDING 1973): 95.10
Average score in winning seasons: 96.84
Last time the corps finished below 90 at finals: 1975
Last time the corps finished lower than 5th:  1974 (9th...first year in finals, 2nd trip to DCI)
 

Championship wins;  17

Captions:

15 GE
24 Brass
13 Drums
17 M&M/Vizh
17 Guard

Average placements:

Corps: 2.38
Brass: 1.97
Drums: 3.5
M&M/Vizh: 2.52

Guard: 1.78

 

That's a pretty ####### impressive 44 year run...and you'd be hard-pressed to find ANY competitive group in ANY activity - amateur or pro -- with that kind of consistency over 4+ decades...especially given the yearly member turnover.

84BDsop (Clap Slowly to Big Applause) i really wanted to answer him but you did it Best, what a response. i was like, "what you talking about Willis!?" for those who understand that expression coming from a retro sitcom. But yeah love how you set him strait with staggering impressive facts. bout BD is overdue for a bronze! in Jamaican accent, '' but cuh yuh to!  WHEEL AND COME AGAIN'' Lol.

[84BDsop]

10 minutes ago, theonlyfizzle said:

 

84BDsop (Clap Slowly to Big Applause) i really wanted to answer him but you did it Best, what a response. i was like, "what you talking about Willis!?" for those who understand that expression coming from a retro sitcom. But yeah love how you set him strait with staggering impressive facts. bout BD is overdue for a bronze! in Jamaican accent, '' but cuh yuh to!  WHEEL AND COME AGAIN'' Lol.

I have a spread sheet with all this info that gets updated after finals every year....just for this kind of occasion!

 

Another BD alum did a similar graph re corps placements a nats.   Interestingly, only Crown and Madison have hit all 12 finalists spots over the years.

[ShortAndFast]

 

47 minutes ago, 84BDsop said:

You really sure about that?
...
Average placements:
Corps: 2.38
Brass: 1.97
Drums: 3.5
M&M/Vizh: 2.52
Guard: 1.78

 

That's a pretty ####### impressive 44 year run

No doubt BD has had a very impressive history of placements. However the longest runs of gold + silver medals in DCI history are:

1. BD 2007-2016 (10 years)

2. Cavaliers 2000-2006 (7 years)

3. BD 1979-1984 (6 years)

Unless you think BD will never place below 2nd ever again, they are are likely close to the end of this particular run. So yeah, I'm pretty sure they are overdue for a bronze.