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2019 Predictions!


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2 hours ago, YoungMusician said:

From what I’ve heard from camps, here’s my guess. There’s still some more callback camps to go, though.

I’m seeing Vanguard try to do something extra that won’t work. BD will be top two. I’ve heard really good things about Bloo. Crown usually doesn’t have a bad design two years in a row. Wildcards for me are Boston and the Cadets. After that it’s hard to say anything so early.

Personally there are two things I would like to see — Bluecoats win a Jim Ott, and for the Cadets to break into the top six.

 

1. Bluecoats 

2. Blue Devils

3. Crown

4. Vanguard

5. Boston

6. Cavaliers

7. Cadets

8. Blue Stars

9. Blue Knights

10. Phantom Regiment

11. Crossmem

12. Mandarians

Haven't seen much on DCP on camps.  So I am not sure where from or how you have camp knowledge.  But There was just a recent post from BAC that they are done with auditions (in December), contracts went out while back, and their camp last week was a production camp with the 2019 MM's, where they were learning music from the show.  They have another brass & percussion production camp next month.  So with that in mind I would feel reasonably safe in saying their talent level has increased once again, they have MM's with 3 years under this staffs guidance and this successful staff is now entering their 3rd season and second full winter with the corps. I am thinking top 3 is a strong possibility this hear so I would swap out BAC for Crown.  I would also feel comfortable is predicting a rise for Cadets since all previous baloney they had to endure (design and design changers) over the past few years is no longer a factor.  Stability is a factor for Cadets.  I thin where we saw the top 6 being tight and very competitive, we will now see that grow to the top 7.

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3 hours ago, LabMaster said:

Haven't seen much on DCP on camps.  So I am not sure where from or how you have camp knowledge.  But There was just a recent post from BAC that they are done with auditions (in December), contracts went out while back, and their camp last week was a production camp with the 2019 MM's, where they were learning music from the show.  They have another brass & percussion production camp next month.  So with that in mind I would feel reasonably safe in saying their talent level has increased once again, they have MM's with 3 years under this staffs guidance and this successful staff is now entering their 3rd season and second full winter with the corps. I am thinking top 3 is a strong possibility this hear so I would swap out BAC for Crown.  I would also feel comfortable is predicting a rise for Cadets since all previous baloney they had to endure (design and design changers) over the past few years is no longer a factor.  Stability is a factor for Cadets.  I thin where we saw the top 6 being tight and very competitive, we will now see that grow to the top 7.

Cadets were only - what - 7 tenths or so out of 6th on finals night (I'd have to look it up)

That said it will take a couple years for them to approach the top 3 again IMO - even with consistent improvement

My "guess" at this point is that possibly Boston moves up to 3rd with possibly Bluecoats moving down to 4/5 and I see Crown & Cavaliers sliding down a spot or so each

Based on absolutely nothing other than "trend" for Crown and my gut/taste when it comes to Cavaliers

I wouldn't be surprised to see SCV win again in 2019 - or BD. I would be very surprised if someone else did.

Finally - the competition in the 8th-14th or so slots could prove extremely interesting... SO many great corps trying to get into Saturday night

I'm excited - for the first time in several years I will be in Indy for all 3 nights!

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 Who would have ever predicted that the fans ( according to the Flo Marching fan poll ) most favorite, entertaining show for the 2018 season out of all the DCI Corps, would be a Drum Corps that would not finish in the Top 20 last season in DCI ? .  If fans did not subscribe to Flo Marching, they did not catch the national Drum Corps fan's favorite's show for 2018 in the DCI Semi Finals nationwide DCI telecast either, as only the top 15 finishing Corps in the DCI Championships Quarterfinals were featured and shown to national audiences.

 Yes, there are terrifically entertaining shows below the Top Tier DCI Corps. I predict here in preseason that a lot of fans here for 2019 still will not know this, as regrettably too many still do not watch these Corps shows, and as such, barely know they exist. But those that do, know them. And like them better in some cases, better than anyone could have imagined, or predicted in preseason too.

Edited by BRASSO
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4 hours ago, BRASSO said:

 Who would have ever predicted that the fans ( according to the Flo Marching fan poll ) most favorite, entertaining show for the 2018 season out of all the DCI Corps, would be a Drum Corps that would not finish in the Top 20 last season in DCI ? .  If fans did not subscribe to Flo Marching, they did not catch the national Drum Corps fan's favorite's show for 2018 in the DCI Semi Finals nationwide DCI telecast either, as only the top 15 finishing Corps in the DCI Championships Quarterfinals were featured and shown to national audiences.

 Yes, there are terrifically entertaining shows below the Top Tier DCI Corps. I predict here in preseason that a lot of fans here for 2019 still will not know this, as regrettably too many still do not watch these Corps shows, and as such, barely know they exist. But those that do, know them. And like them better in some cases, better than anyone could have imagined, or predicted in preseason too. 

Here's a video from their December audition camp of the hornline playing Robert W. Smith's arrangement of their corps song. 

 

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I say BD and SCV have the most consistent programs and will likely be top 2 again. If you look at the captions the champions have won over the past 11 years, on finals night only, here are the results: 

2008 Phantom Regiment: Percussion

2009 Blue Devils: General Effect, Visual, Guard, Percussion

2010 Blue Devils: General Effect, Visual, Guard, Brass

2011 Cadets: General Effect

2012 Blue Devils: General Effect, Visual, Guard, Percussion

2013 Carolina Crown: General Effect, Brass

2014 Blue Devils: General Effect, Visual, Guard, Brass

2015 Blue Devils: Visual, Guard, Percussion

2016 Bluecoats: General Effect (this is the only caption Bluecoats have ever won at finals)

2017 Blue Devils: General Effect, Visual, Guard

2018 Santa Clara Vanguard: General Effect, Visual, Brass, Percussion

In those 11 years, the Blue Devils have won 6 of the titles and five different corps have won one each. Which of those 5 corps has nothing in common with the other four? The 2018 Santa Clara Vanguard. They were the only one of those five champions to win most of the captions. In 2008, 2011 and 2016, we saw the champion only win one caption on finals night (of course Crown grabbed the guard caption in 2015 and Vanguard in 2017, but they did not win guard on finals night. I'm sure there are more instances of this, but I can't run on memory alone).

What this tells me, is that no corps except the Blue Devils has shown consistency, which isn't a surprise to any of you. But it also shows me that SCV has built a program that is running on all cylinders. SCV has built a program that can compete with Blue Devils when they are on the top of their game. 

To be a constant contender you have to show consistency. Blue Devils have - no brainer. Vanguard has for the past two years, being the only other corps in years to win most of the captions at finals, and the only corps other than the Blue Devils, since the 2006 Cavaliers to finish in the top 2 two years in a row. 

To me, Crown and Bluecoats have to rely on a struggling SCV AND BD to have a shot at winning, and the chances that both of them will struggle in the same season is almost nil. 

Edited by queenanne_1536
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23 hours ago, George Dixon said:

Cadets were only - what - 7 tenths or so out of 6th on finals night (I'd have to look it up)

That said it will take a couple years for them to approach the top 3 again IMO - even with consistent improvement

My "guess" at this point is that possibly Boston moves up to 3rd with possibly Bluecoats moving down to 4/5 and I see Crown & Cavaliers sliding down a spot or so each

Based on absolutely nothing other than "trend" for Crown and my gut/taste when it comes to Cavaliers

I wouldn't be surprised to see SCV win again in 2019 - or BD. I would be very surprised if someone else did.

Finally - the competition in the 8th-14th or so slots could prove extremely interesting... SO many great corps trying to get into Saturday night

I'm excited - for the first time in several years I will be in Indy for all 3 nights!

The Cadets were 1.9875 out of 6th place on finals night last year. The Cavaliers were closer to Crown than Cadets. I was impressed with what the Cadets did last year based on the turmoil they faced in the off season, but take that away and I wasn’t impressed at all. The first time I saw Cadets was ‘83 and I can say with certainty the 2018 show was my least favorite of any Cadet show I’ve ever seen. It was a 7th - 9th place show from a design perspective, and I actually felt both Blue Stars and Blue Knights had better designed shows last year. That all being said, it could be the result of a lot of the program components being decided before George left, and it being too late to make such drastic changes.

I think George leaving was the best thing to happen to this organization in YEARS, and I do feel they are in good hands and their future is bright, but it’s not going to be an easy road back. It’s not going to take a couple of years to approach the top 3 again, it’s probably going to many years, if not a decade or more. Gone are the days when a corps could have an off season by finishing 6th or 7th and win or make top 3 the next year. SCV fell out of the top 3 (the last time) in 2005 and it took 12 years to get back there. Cavies fell out in 2012 and they still haven’t threatened the top 3. Phantom fell out in 2013 and their downward trend continues. It is just way too hard to crack that top 3 these days. I don’t think BAC is going to do it this year either. SCV, BD, Bluecoats and Crown are just too good. The only show I didn’t like last year more than Crown (in the top 12) was Regiment’s, but I feel if Crown had a better designed product they would have been closer to 3rd than 5th.

if the 2019 Cadets put out a great show from a design and execution standpoint, then I will be thrilled. I’m old school - it just doesn’t feel right to me without SCV, BD, Cadets, Madison and Regiment being the top corps. The Cadets, at least, are in a far better position than Madison or Regiment, so that is something to be hugely thankful for.

Edited by queenanne_1536
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48 minutes ago, queenanne_1536 said:

 I think George leaving was the best thing to happen to this organization in YEARS, and I do feel they are in good hands and their future is bright, but it’s not going to be an easy road back.  

Not only for the Cadets, but all marching arts organizations.

Edited by Ghost
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18 hours ago, RetiredMusTeach said:

Here's a video from their December audition camp of the hornline playing Robert W. Smith's arrangement of their corps song. 

 

 Thanks for sharing this. Nice to hear some Corps songs, or encore songs played like this at winter camps from Corps. I find there is no compelling reason(s) at all why all DCI Corps can not provide these similar minutes of music clips like this from their camps. Its not show music, and no themes, guard work, uniforms, or visuals are revealed at all. Its absurd the levels of blackouts with no practice clips we get now from most of the Corps. Especially with all that is swirling around the DCI activity at the moment, its refreshing that Music City has gone against that ridiculous recent trend of blackouts, and apparently openly allows the taping of corps songs like this at winter camps ( we can see in the tape others taping the music, and in full view too. ). Kudos to Music City !

Edited by BRASSO
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7 hours ago, queenanne_1536 said:

To be a constant contender you have to show consistency. Blue Devils have - no brainer. Vanguard has for the past two years, being the only other corps in years to win most of the captions at finals, and the only corps other than the Blue Devils, since the 2006 Cavaliers to finish in the top 2 two years in a row. 

To me, Crown and Bluecoats have to rely on a struggling SCV AND BD to have a shot at winning, and the chances that both of them will struggle in the same season is almost nil. 

You contradict yourself.  You talk about "since 2006" and then limit your "consistency window" to the past two seasons. 

It's ok to fanboy for Vanguard -- just don't pretend that it's some sort of objective analysis.  

Objectively Coats, Crown, and Cadets have placed higher than Vanguard since 2009.  

 

Average Placement 2009-2018

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Edited by karuna
changed filter to just show most recent 10 years
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