Carolina Crown 2022

[BWise]

26 minutes ago, rchitectburd23BD01 said:

I was out there yesterday watching their rehearsal but it's started to thunder, so everyone took precaution and went inside. So I went home.

I debating on going tonight because its going to be a long work day for me today , but I may push. But they'll be back in a week at Midtown High in Atlanta and then back in late July at Kell High. 

 

Go Crown!!!

Yeah I’ve got a long day too .. and midtown high is like right down the street. I might have to wait .. I have tickets already  🤡

 

[JFitz19]

Regarding 2015:  I remember that there was a problem with the soloist’s mic that staff was trying to fix as Crown was ready to start their finals performance.  Iirc, the fix did not happen, and he had to play without it.  I remember thinking, “I hope this doesn’t affect the performance,” but I think it did, just enough, ultimately.  Happened at the worst time.

[rchitectburd23BD01]

20 minutes ago, BWise said:

Yeah I’ve got a long day too .. and midtown high is like right down the street. I might have to wait .. I have tickets already  🤡

 

Nice. I just got off going back in 4 hrs and then I'll pop in at Kennesaw down the road and then back at it again afterwards.  I'm thinking of going to Midtown , idk yet , but I'm going to NightBeat. 

[BWise]

2 hours ago, rchitectburd23BD01 said:

Nice. I just got off going back in 4 hrs and then I'll pop in at Kennesaw down the road and then back at it again afterwards.  I'm thinking of going to Midtown , idk yet , but I'm going to NightBeat. 

I’m going to Southeastern but not NightBeat. There is basically no parking at Midtown High. 

[Drumcorpdad62]

20 hours ago, Sensioto said:

A silly CrownStats moment for everyone. Using the methodology from @Drumcorpdad62 on their thread "Data analysis" from last week, I extended out a prediction for Crown's scoring this season if its assumed to be a Top-5 year for Crown. 

First, this is all in good fun and by no means should be taken seriously. I am not a statistician, nor do I claim to to even know what I'm doing half the time - I am just killing some time at work. 

First, a couple of facts:

1. The 73.45 in Muncie, IN on Friday was the highest debut score for Crown since 2013, when the corps scored a 73.2 at their first show. But don't get too excited, because the corps also debuted with a 73.075 in 2010 and finished 4th at Finals.
2. Crown has averaged a Finals Night score of 96.665 since being a Top 5 unit (2008-2019)
3. In years where Crown medaled, their average Finals Night score jumps to a 97.365 
4. This season features the fewest shows (21) that Crown will participate in since joining World Class (1994)

Again, using the methodology from Drumcorpdad62, I calculated the "Average Clean" per season (Highest Score - Lowest Score) since Crown has been a perennial Top 5 corps since 2008. So, on average from 2008-2019, from first show to last show, Crown added 25.596 points to their score. In Top 3/Medal Years for Crown, that value increased to 26.831 on average for 2009, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2017. While Crown's 2022 finish is obviously yet to be seen, I think we are all in agreement that Crown will remain in the Top 5 come August, so I will use that figure. 

Given Crown's first score of 73.45 last Friday, if we add 25.596 points to that, we get a whopping 97.827. Take that for whatever you want it to mean. Scores should not be treated as placements though, as we all know, and scores can give little insight into a corps' final placement.

However, if we extrapolate out these numbers, we can keep track of how Crown is doing toward this goal compared to this linear model by the following predicted scores (+1.22885 per show):

1. Muncie, IN: 73.45 
2. Kent, OH: 74.67 (Actual: 74.4)
3. Lexington, SC: 75.89 (Actual: TBD... and so on...)
4. Statesboro, GA: 77.11
5. Atlanta, GA: 78.33
6. Memphis, TN: 79.54
7. Broken Arrow, OK: 80.76
8. Denton, TX: 81.98
9. Houston, TX: 83.20
10. San Antonio, TX: 84.42
11. Mesquite, TX: 85.64
12. McKinney, TX: 86.86
13. Murfreesboro, TN: 88.08
14. Atlanta, GA: 89.30
15. Winston-Salem, NC: 90.51
16. Salem, VA: 91.73
17. Allentown, PA: 92.95
18. Akron, OH: 94.17
19. Indianapolis, IN: 95.39
20. Indianapolis, IN: 96.61
21. Indianapolis, IN: 97.83

OBVIOUSLY, this is just a prediction algorithm and scores will fluctuate wildly and mean nothing in regard to placements. This is just a fun little tracker that I will be following along with to see Crown's progress. We all know ~1.2 point jumps seldom happen during Finals Week. Glares at Phantom 2008 👀

 

Thanks for the quote and that is a good analysis.  Here is my final prediction based on 1. Their opening score this season 2) the average increase over the last 7 years from 1st score to High score...and the answer is  

	avg clean	Starting	Prediction
Carolina Crown	26.36	73.45	99.81
Blue Devils	26.61	72.1	98.71
Blue Coats	26.27	71.7	97.97
Santa Clara	26.11	69.95	96.06
Boston	25.13	69.45	94.58
The Cadets	25.11	69.15	94.26
The Cavaliers	25.74	67.6	93.34
Blue Knights	25.14	66.7	91.84
Blue Stars	26.12	65.15	91.27
Phantom Regiment	24.54	65.75	90.29
Mandarins	23.72	65.3	89.02
Crossmen	24.45	63.35	87.8
Madison Scouts	22.31	64.5	86.81
Colts	23.3	62.35	85.65
The Academy	21	61.45	82.45
Troopers	21.11	60	81.11

[Hrothgar15]

3 hours ago, JFitz19 said:

Regarding 2015:  I remember that there was a problem with the soloist’s mic that staff was trying to fix as Crown was ready to start their finals performance.  Iirc, the fix did not happen, and he had to play without it.  I remember thinking, “I hope this doesn’t affect the performance,” but I think it did, just enough, ultimately.  Happened at the worst time.

IIRC the flugel soloist’s mic didn’t work at all, but as a result that performance was the best that solo sounded all season. Unfortunately I don’t think that’s what’s on the official recordings.

[keystone3ply]

4 hours ago, rchitectburd23BD01 said:

I was out there yesterday watching their rehearsal but it's started to thunder, so everyone took precaution and went inside. So I went home.

I debating on going tonight because its going to be a long work day for me today , but I may push. But they'll be back in a week at Midtown High in Atlanta and then back in late July at Kell High. 

 

Go Crown!!!

"Back in my day we would have kept practicing."   

#MarchOn? 

 

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by keystone3ply
cx

[rchitectburd23BD01]

2 hours ago, keystone3ply said:

"Back in my day we would have kept practicing."   

#MarchOn? 

 

 

I agree. But with all the electronics in today's era....

They may have went back out or went rehearsed inside. Idk. 

[Incognito365]

7 hours ago, Drumcorpdad62 said:

Thanks for the quote and that is a good analysis.  Here is my final prediction based on 1. Their opening score this season 2) the average increase over the last 7 years from 1st score to High score...and the answer is  

	avg clean	Starting	Prediction
Carolina Crown	26.36	73.45	99.81
Blue Devils	26.61	72.1	98.71
Blue Coats	26.27	71.7	97.97
Santa Clara	26.11	69.95	96.06
Boston	25.13	69.45	94.58
The Cadets	25.11	69.15	94.26
The Cavaliers	25.74	67.6	93.34
Blue Knights	25.14	66.7	91.84
Blue Stars	26.12	65.15	91.27
Phantom Regiment	24.54	65.75	90.29
Mandarins	23.72	65.3	89.02
Crossmen	24.45	63.35	87.8
Madison Scouts	22.31	64.5	86.81
Colts	23.3	62.35	85.65
The Academy	21	61.45	82.45
Troopers	21.11	60	81.11

If Crown pops a 99 on finals night I will #### the bed...

[2000Cadet]

On 9/21/2021 at 7:18 PM, karuna said:

Welcome to the Carolina Crown 2022 thread!

 

First up:  CrownGuard!  

 

 

I just realized this thread was started on my birthday. YAAAAAAAAAAAAY!!!!!

 

 

CARRY ON.