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Pre-Spring Move Ins Predictions


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On 5/6/2024 at 12:23 PM, Old Corps Guy said:

I am struggling with the idea that SCV will be in the top half and possibly fighting for a medal. I understand they have most of the staff back from a couple years ago.  However, they were in fifth before the 2023 season. There are many FMM that have found a new home or are apprehensive to take the risks associated with this comeback.

I see them in the bottom half if not bottom quarter of the Top 12 as they start their comeback.  

Please understand, I have always been an SCV fan and wish them well.  I just don't see them as a top 6 corps this year.

yeah... i am not taking a prediction post as seriously as you mate... it's all in fun.  Sorry to cause any struggles with any one person thinking about this.  Just hoping they do bounce back... and continue with their amazing successes.  One thing we do every year is seem to overrate certain "Other" corps... I am just trying to take a realistic.. and fun.. stab at it.

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On 5/6/2024 at 9:23 AM, Old Corps Guy said:

I am struggling with the idea that SCV will be in the top half and possibly fighting for a medal. I understand they have most of the staff back from a couple years ago.  However, they were in fifth before the 2023 season. There are many FMM that have found a new home or are apprehensive to take the risks associated with this comeback.

I see them in the bottom half if not bottom quarter of the Top 12 as they start their comeback.  

Please understand, I have always been an SCV fan and wish them well.  I just don't see them as a top 6 corps this year.

We'll have to see. Spirit only dropped 2 places when they didn't field for a year, and Vanguard is still a big draw due to their history and their accomplishments. While I do not think they will be fighting for a medal or beat any of last year's top 4, I do see a good possibility of them still being in the top 6. They still have a great staff, and while talent is certainly important the two single most important things are design and staff. We know they have the staff, we'll have to see how the design plays out.

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23 hours ago, DFA1970 said:

I'm wondering how many vets came back after last year. And with SCVC not active and they get tons crossover from the them they are dealing with mostly new members. BUT...remember BD in 2022 after the 2 years of not performing they had something like 90 percent newbies. And look what happened.....

What do you mean crossover with SCVC. A few years ago a former SCVC member told me, "No one from Vanguard Cadets makes Vanguard." I don't think he really meant none make it, but very very few make it. 

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23 hours ago, TOC said:

As opposed to their normal percentage of newbies.  Majority of newbies to the top corps are college age with DCI experience.  And these top corps usually have the higher numbers of one and done.

Yes, exactly. I bet almost no one would make a top tier corps without previous corps experience.

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55 minutes ago, Vuitton said:

Yes, exactly. I bet almost no one would make a top tier corps without previous corps experience.

What is "top tier?"  Top 5?  Top 10?  You'd be surprised how many rookies with no previous DCI experience actually make those top tier corps.  My son was a 17 year old Cadets rookie last year with no DCI experience and due to being a minor, had to stick together with all of the minors, which all but 1 had no previous DCI experience.  It was a pretty large group of guppies.  

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45 minutes ago, DAYGO said:

What is "top tier?"  Top 5?  Top 10?  You'd be surprised how many rookies with no previous DCI experience actually make those top tier corps.  My son was a 17 year old Cadets rookie last year with no DCI experience and due to being a minor, had to stick together with all of the minors, which all but 1 had no previous DCI experience.  It was a pretty large group of guppies.  

Exactly. 2023 Mandarins had quite a few high school kids with no previous DCI Experience.

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3 hours ago, Vuitton said:

Yes, exactly. I bet almost no one would make a top tier corps without previous corps experience.

It's not a large number but it's larger than you seem to think.   

There is a strong preference for experienced marchers but it has little to do with talent.  Instead it's about comfort.  The corps is comfortable with the odds of the candidate actually making it through to finals.  Finding great talent is far easier than finding talent that will survive an entire drum corps season.  Nothing is worse than investing all the time and energy into filling a spot only to have them leave half-way through spring training because (pick your favorite reason here).  

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3 hours ago, Chief Guns said:

Exactly. 2023 Mandarins had quite a few high school kids with no previous DCI Experience.

Exactly! But don’t call Mandarins a young corps … some will go bonkers.

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