DrumCorpsRadio Posted July 14, 2019 Author Share Posted July 14, 2019 Mid-Season Analysis Saturday, July 13 was the 22nd competitive day of the 47-day competitive season (show days only). Given the importance of Saturdays in the DCI schedule, this is the best date to use for a mid-season analysis. The rain-out in Denver means we are missing scores for several finalist-level corps however that was the case last year too and most of the placements held to finals anyway. The Medalists Current standings give the medals to Bluecoats, Santa Clara Vanguard and Blue Devils, in that order. Carolina Crown is just 0.050 points out of third place although that is compared to a three-day old Blue Devils score. The Top 3 order did not change from mid-season to finals in either 2018 or 2017 with close races those years as well. Does this mean things are set in stone? Of course not. However, Bluecoats are undefeated, Santa Clara Vanguard and Blue Devils have traded victories, and no one else has really been close to any of them in head-to-head competition. The spread from 1st to 3rd is 1.05 this year compared to 1.05 in 2018 and 0.90 in 2017. Given Blue Devils have not had a score since 2010, it is safe to say that this spread is much smaller than 1.05. The Top 6 Beyond the medalists, the corps that make up the Top 6 have been identical for each of the last three seasons. For this year, Carolina Crown, Boston Crusaders, and The Cavaliers are 4th-6th, in that order. Given the back-and-forth between Carolina Crown and Boston Crusaders, this seems to be the place for the greatest possibility of order change. The Cavaliers seem to be on a bit of an island based on spreads with corps above them so far. The corps is currently two full points out of 5th place. The 4th-6th grouping saw change in 2018 and 2017 from mid-season to finals. Last year, The Cavaliers dropped from 4th to 6th and Carolina Crown and Boston Crusaders both moved up a spot. In 2017, Bluecoats fell from 4th to 5th and The Cavaliers moved up from 5th to 4th. The spread from 1st to 6th this year is 3.95 points compared to 2.95 in 2018 and 3.05 in 2017. The Top 12 If the current Top 12 holds, the corps will be the same for two years in a row. From mid-season to finals in 2017, there were no changes at all in the 7-12 grouping. In 2018, Phantom Regiment dropped from 10th to 11th and Mandarins moved up from 11th to 10th. The Academy dropped from 12th all the way to 15th with Crossmen moving up from the 13th into the last finalist spot. The spread from 1st to 12th right now is 8.90 points compared to 8.75 in 2018 and 8.60 in 2017. More importantly to the corps battling for finals, the spread from 12th to 13th is 1.20 in 2019 compared to 0.25 in 2018 and 1.85 in 2017. Spirit of Atlanta will need a serious push to make up that ground based on past trends. For example, when in 14th place last year Spirit of Atlanta was the same distance to 12th as it is now in 13th and that is with Spirit having a score on July 13 and Crossmen not. 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weaklefthand4ever Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 Thank you for all of your hard work on this! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terri Schehr Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 Jim says to tell you that this is the best thread on DCP. 👏👏👏👏 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueStainGlass Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 3 hours ago, DrumCorpsRadio said: Mid-Season Analysis Saturday, July 13 was the 22nd competitive day of the 47-day competitive season (show days only). Given the importance of Saturdays in the DCI schedule, this is the best date to use for a mid-season analysis. The rain-out in Denver means we are missing scores for several finalist-level corps however that was the case last year too and most of the placements held to finals anyway. The Medalists Current standings give the medals to Bluecoats, Santa Clara Vanguard and Blue Devils, in that order. Carolina Crown is just 0.050 points out of third place although that is compared to a three-day old Blue Devils score. The Top 3 order did not change from mid-season to finals in either 2018 or 2017 with close races those years as well. Does this mean things are set in stone? Of course not. However, Bluecoats are undefeated, Santa Clara Vanguard and Blue Devils have traded victories, and no one else has really been close to any of them in head-to-head competition. The spread from 1st to 3rd is 1.05 this year compared to 1.05 in 2018 and 0.90 in 2017. Given Blue Devils have not had a score since 2010, it is safe to say that this spread is much smaller than 1.05. The Top 6 Beyond the medalists, the corps that make up the Top 6 have been identical for each of the last three seasons. For this year, Carolina Crown, Boston Crusaders, and The Cavaliers are 4th-6th, in that order. Given the back-and-forth between Carolina Crown and Boston Crusaders, this seems to be the place for the greatest possibility of order change. The Cavaliers seem to be on a bit of an island based on spreads with corps above them so far. The corps is currently two full points out of 5th place. The 4th-6th grouping saw change in 2018 and 2017 from mid-season to finals. Last year, The Cavaliers dropped from 4th to 6th and Carolina Crown and Boston Crusaders both moved up a spot. In 2017, Bluecoats fell from 4th to 5th and The Cavaliers moved up from 5th to 4th. The spread from 1st to 6th this year is 3.95 points compared to 2.95 in 2018 and 3.05 in 2017. The Top 12 If the current Top 12 holds, the corps will be the same for two years in a row. From mid-season to finals in 2017, there were no changes at all in the 7-12 grouping. In 2018, Phantom Regiment dropped from 10th to 11th and Mandarins moved up from 11th to 10th. The Academy dropped from 12th all the way to 15th with Crossmen moving up from the 13th into the last finalist spot. The spread from 1st to 12th right now is 8.90 points compared to 8.75 in 2018 and 8.60 in 2017. More importantly to the corps battling for finals, the spread from 12th to 13th is 1.20 in 2019 compared to 0.25 in 2018 and 1.85 in 2017. Spirit of Atlanta will need a serious push to make up that ground based on past trends. For example, when in 14th place last year Spirit of Atlanta was the same distance to 12th as it is now in 13th and that is with Spirit having a score on July 13 and Crossmen not. Interesting how 7-8-9 midseason to finals doesnt change. Lets keep that going 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Terri Schehr said: Jim says to tell you that this is the best thread on DCP. 👏👏👏👏 What, you're not letting Jim use the laptop? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Dixon Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 thanks for pulling this together! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 (edited) DCR By June 21st of this year, the top six were in place. There was some going up and down when a competing corps passed a corps who was off for a day or so, but the six were the top six. You typed the top 12 were the same in 17 and 18 from about now to finals, minus one or two corps moving a spot. What I'm thinking is we can stop saying we shouldn't compare scores from one region to another because the top six have been the top six on your charts using scores by different judging panels. So, the only change we might see is a position shift within the groupings. Yes, 4th could move up to third, 7th up to 6th, etc., but I wouldn't count on it. Edited July 14, 2019 by Ghost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrumCorpsRadio Posted July 14, 2019 Author Share Posted July 14, 2019 3 hours ago, Ghost said: DCR By June 21st of this year, the top six were in place. There was some going up and down when a competing corps passed a corps who was off for a day or so, but the six were the top six. You typed the top 12 were the same in 17 and 18 from about now to finals, minus one or two corps moving a spot. What I'm thinking is we can stop saying we shouldn't compare scores from one region to another because the top six have been the top six on your charts using scores by different judging panels. So, the only change we might see is a position shift within the groupings. Yes, 4th could move up to third, 7th up to 6th, etc., but I wouldn't count on it. I'm with you. That was actually the reason I started doing this several years ago. Everyone always says, "You can't compare scores across shows" so I wanted to find out if that was true... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeRapp Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 (edited) This may be my personal bias but I think BD is in first place, Bloo second and SCV third—very closely followed by Crown. BD and CC have largely played untested for the entire first half of the season and that’s why we are seeing huge point jumps from both of them in the past week. My best guess is finals will be Bluecoats, Blue Devils and Vanguard, but I also believe Boston and Crown have what it takes to medal. FWIW after watching DeKalb I think Cavaliers are being underscored compared to Crown. Edited July 14, 2019 by MikeRapp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrumCorpsRadio Posted July 15, 2019 Author Share Posted July 15, 2019 (edited) July 14 Run-Down There's nothing of substance to report on except to warn that the movement in rankings bears no resemblance to previous head-to-head competitions and is much more a reflection of which corps were in competition and which corps were off. It is interesting to note that three corps in the St. Louis show improved by exactly 1.050 points. All eyes will be on El Dorado, Kansas tonight. Blue Devils and Santa Clara Vanguard face off for the first time since June 30 when Blue Devils edged Vanguard by just 0.050 points. Vanguard one the prior three meetings by 0.650, 0.650, and 0.400 points. All of the current 8-12 corps except Phantom Regiment are also in this same show. Blue Knights edged Mandarins in their three June meetings and The Cadets have been ahead of Crossmen all season as well but the spreads in both cases have been narrow at times. Edited July 15, 2019 by DrumCorpsRadio 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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