Encouragement Thread - If you need support let’s help

[N.E. Brigand]

35 minutes ago, skevinp said:

That’s what I herd.

It's one in a range of opinions.

[N.E. Brigand]

1 hour ago, skevinp said:

That’s what I herd.

That post is very on brand for you.

[JimF-LowBari]

Any word on changes to the coronavirus make up (aka mutations) yet. My biggest worry is this acts like 1918-1920 and mutates at least one. IIRC from Berrys The Great Influenzas the second strain was the killer. And I don’t know enough about viruses for chances vaccine can/can not handle mutations.

Personally hoping we get this in next few months but have seen enough large govt plans go to crap, I’m sitting back and see what happens

 

[N.E. Brigand]

35 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said:

Any word on changes to the coronavirus make up (aka mutations) yet. My biggest worry is this acts like 1918-1920 and mutates at least one. IIRC from Berrys The Great Influenzas the second strain was the killer. And I don’t know enough about viruses for chances vaccine can/can not handle mutations.

Personally hoping we get this in next few months but have seen enough large govt plans go to crap, I’m sitting back and see what happens

While I don't think there's anythnig like a consensus view yet, I saw one report a month ago or so that indicated the coronavirus actually mutates pretty slowly.

[cixelsyd]

23 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Eh, from the time we first started discussing the coronavirus at the end of February, my foremost goal here has been to encourage everyone to take this outbreak seriously, and to not complain that the danger was being blown out of proportion by the media ("It’s over hyped - get back to me in 2-3weeks" (all quotes are from DCP posters on Feb. 28); "Shameful on the media's part. 62 cases in the US"); and to not claim that it was going to be just like the flu ("There is ZERO evidence that this strain of flu even challenges 'OUR' flu (the 'American' strain) for people affected, let alone death"; "our flu has killed more than 8,000 people this season and NO ONE calls the 'US flu' a pandemic" ), or that it wouldn't be a problem in this country because we don't eat bats, or because we didn't have a large population of migrant textile workers from China, or because we have better hygiene, and so on, and so on, because I felt that if we listened to those arguments, then lots of people would die. I don't think it's very encouraging to give people false hope that leads to their deaths.

I lost the debate, and people didn't take it seriously enough, and lots of people died. My arguments weren't good enough. They apparently failed to convice you and other skeptics that this outbreak was going to be (at least) as bad as I feared. Therefore I must share some responsibility for the many thousands of deaths that happened. And I'm sorry I let everyone down, not that my apology will bring any victims back to life. (And obviously I don't mean just me or just on DCP, but everyone out there making the same arguments. We failed. With tragic results. We need to do better!)

(As for the idea that we can set aside what happened in "the most densely-populated city in the country" as being largely irrelevant to what will happen elsewhere, it's true that New York City was hit very hard, with more than 17,000 deaths. But that means that the other 100,000+ deaths, so far, didn't happen there.)

For me to believe that part, you would have to have stopped the online ticker-tape of coronapocalypse statistics which you now claim caused people to not take this seriously enough.  Instead, you continued it in the very next paragraph.

[MikeRapp]

1 hour ago, N.E. Brigand said:

The Boy Genius Report article you cited rightly says that "more immunity research will be required". The title itself clearly states "new revelations may change everything we know about coronavirus antibodies". It says that "circulating antibodies might be undetectable in blood tests within three months after infection." It regularly uses phrases like "if accurate" and other sensible qualifiers. It cites two different studies published in Nature, one from Chinese researchers who examined just 37 cases. That's about as many as the French hydroxychloroquine study back in Jan.-Feb. that got a lot of people thinking that drug was a miracle cure -- only for numerous later studies to fail to replicate those results, leading our FDA just in the past week or so to withdraw authorization for hospitals to use it against Covid-19. The BGR article tentatively accepts those researchers' findings, but based on the results of the other study of 149 patients (and on a New York Times article), it suggests those finding are being misinterpreted, because "it does appear that even low levels of certain antibodies have potent neutralizing capability ... Low antibody titers don’t necessarily determine whether a patient will be protected from reinfection." That would be great! But what we have are two studies rather tentatively presented.

I would love for us to be sure that more people have acquired immunity against Covid-19 than has previously seemd to be the case. But if the article is right, we'll largely be unable to identify who had it and who didn't, at least on any practical scale, and that's not much help for making public health decisions. (And also, even people who never experienced symptoms can apparently have long-term lung damage, according to your source.) So no, that hasn't been proven, and your linked article doesn't claim it has. Would you feel comfortable telling someone now who believes that they haven't had the disease that, even though tests show they have no antibodies against it, they can feel safe mingling with a large crowd, because they probably did have it and didn't know it? Can they sue you when they subsequently get the disease because you were wrong?

You don’t need to store the antibodies in your body; your body needs to recognize the virus and create them. That’s the point of the article. You cannot get reinfected by the same virus, and corona viruses are not complex enough to mutate in meaningful ways.

My knowledge of my or your immunity doesn’t impact our immunity. As more people become immune, less people will contract it. That’s math.

Edited June 20, 2020 by MikeRapp

[JimF-LowBari]

31 minutes ago, MikeRapp said:

You cannot get reinfected by the same virus, and corona viruses are not complex enough to mutate in meaningful ways.

 

And yet we hear that coronavirus is something new and we are still learning. Biggest reason people get bit in the butt is to believe they know more than they actually do. 
 

Yeah I’m a bad mood as went to different grocery store and about 10-15% not wearing masks. Kid at service counter said “we can’t force them anymore”. Funny always thought store could refuse service except for race, religion, etc. I walked out..... bye bye Weis. Also interesting how many people without masks had this “go ahead say something” looks on their faces..... learn more about human nature every day. Beginning to see why my dad would say “glad I’m closer to the end of my life than the beginning” (usually said after he dealt with peoples stupidity or selfishness)

 

Edited June 20, 2020 by JimF-LowBari

[garfield]

4 hours ago, Ghost said:

And I thought only the Bible had very long sentences.

I had to breath-da to get through it.

 

[garfield]

4 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Thanks. Here's hoping that the findings mentioned in that article prove to be correct.

 

Ha!

One funny result of Covid-19 discussions is seeing people who fiercely disagree about many drum corps issues, like garfield and cixelsyd, aligning on this topic. I butted heads with Brasso on some drum corps subjects and agreed with him on others, and I would be curious to konw what he'd make of this matter. 

I think you'll find that you're exaggerating your observation and come to realize that cixelsyd and I agree on many drum corps issues.

We also agree on calling a spade a spade, and not letting an single voice dominate discussion...

And it's not funny, it's a realization that what we do here is, essentially, summer band that's enflamed with passion, and on the base fundamentals of a successful society we also agree.

[garfield]

3 hours ago, skevinp said:

Brasso is one person I don’t worry about during the pandemic.  If the Grim Reaper ever shows up at his door, he will argue with him until he forgets why he came and leaves with a headache.  

Again, I nominate skevinp as DCP's resident comic.