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If Current DCI Model Gets Cut Back...


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2 minutes ago, IllianaLancerContra said:

So Brass is the brown/red line (soloists are purple), while the green is the Guard.  Drums are in the blue box. The tan are the featured Guard performers.

Efforts start working line looks like ye olde elevator drill for the drum line....

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8 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said:

But it's not false or disingenuous at all. It's what would happen if business as usual went on. And yes, some people were advising just that. Herd immunity!

Maybe you do not understand yet... but this should help clarify.

Plenty of people were inevitably going to adopt precautionary behaviors in reaction to this virus, no matter what.  Handwashing.  Avoiding public gatherings.  Cancelling unnecessary travel.  Handwashing.  At-risk people self-isolating.  Completing two years worth of toilet paper shopping in one trip.  Wearing masks in public.  Handwashing.  Staying home when sick.  Cleaning and disinfecting surfaces.  Working from home.  Handwashing.

It does not matter who would have advised pursuing herd immunity.  The preceding paragraph would remain inevitably true.  And denial of that remains disingenuous.

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This is just baffling: when some people here claimed that COVID19 was being overhyped ("get back to me in two or three weeks", said someone here in the last week of February) because the swine flu was worse, or the regular flu season (in which 60,000 deaths is a bad year) is worse, even though both of those claims have proved to be false, that wasn't worth disputing.

You are kidding, right?

Claims like those were thoroughly disputed (and refuted, IMO) by others here.  There was no need for me to pile on.

I have always said this virus is a serious matter.  For that reason, I have also said not to panic.  Serious times deserve serious responses, not meme-graphs based on utter fiction.

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But when other people here warned that it was going to be much worse, and then when they noted that subsequent events bore those predictions out, that's somehow misleading.

No. What is misleading is this part:

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That burgundy line on the chart is what would happen had we done nothing. (Which would lead to somewhere between 500,000 and 2 million Americans dead, by the way. Yes, that's a big uncertain spread, because there's lots we just don't know about this virus yet.)

There was never going to be a "had we done nothing".

Have you done nothing?  No.  There you go.

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That "efforts start working" point on the chart? If we're lucky, that's where we are right now, in terms of the death toll. Or we may be just a bit to the right, just past that inflection point. What you seem to be proposing is that the efforts taken to this point weren't worthwhile, because once we reached this point, we could now take all the measures that are helping us bend the curve.

Then it is fortunate that I am here to correct your misunderstanding.

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Or alternatively you seem to believe that people would have taken sufficient steps on their own to match the official policies, and those would have been good enough to get us here.

Getting closer.

Maybe you do not realize just how "voluntary" this all is.  We covered the obviously voluntary actions above - the ones people took on their own initiative, in advance of any recommendations or actions from authority figures of any kind.  But even the recommendations or actions from authority figures require we, the people, to carry them out.  We can choose either way... and it appears to me that we are 99+% carrying them out.  We are setting aside our individual beliefs/self-interests/rights and making huge sacrifices to do this.  Voluntarily.

No need for you to guess at what I "seem to believe".  What I believe is that there was never going to be a 'had we done nothing" scenario.

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If that's what you mean, I don't think it's true. Had we taken the social distancing steps we did take just *one week earlier*, we probably could have cut the death toll by half. And that obviously didn't happen, whether officially or not.

What are those 30,000 American lives worth?

They could be worth about the same as any other 30,000 American lives. 

COVID-19 is not the only thing that can cost lives.  At some point, we could lose that many (or more) to lockdown-induced poverty, suicides, other untreated health conditions, curtailed fitness programs/physical therapy, bans on elective surgeries, hospital failures, healthcare job losses, etc.

But the experts are not counting those losses.

These are matters of life and death.  But that means both life AND death.  It is not lockdown = life, alternative = death.  There are tradeoffs.  

I sure hope we are not evaluating those tradeoffs based on moot hypotheticals like "if we did nothing".

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We probably ought to decide, because it needs to be a factor in how and when we reopen (and thus ultimately how 2021 plays out for DCI).

Well, if we play that game, we might as well liquidate marching arts worldwide, today.  Because if we assign marching arts full, direct, cause-and-effect culpability in even one future death, how can we say it is worth it?

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11 hours ago, Jurassic Lancer said:

Standing-O! I defy anyone one here to rebut this.

My response is posted.  It is not a rebuttal of the entire novel, or even any whole chapter therein.  But feel free to let me know what you think.

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I have literal skin in the game. Not money-literal skin. Real skin. 

And so do I.

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And if you do rebut this, I hope you will have the balls to tell me face to face at Finals, if there ever is another Finals.

Please be mindful of social distancing recommendations.  We must stay at least six feet apart, and faces will be partially covered.

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DCP, Hungary, 1241:

"Man, we've gotta open the gates."

-"We've been through this, Phil. The Mongols are still outside."

"But I've gotta harvest my turnips."

-"MONGOLS"

"Ugh. But we've been in here or WEEKS."

-"That's how sieges work, Phil."

"But the Mongols have barely killed anyone in days."

-"That's because of the walls, Phil."

"Are you sure? Maybe the Mongols aren't that dangerous."

-"..."

"I'm just saying, how bad could it be. They can't kill ALL of us"

-"That is literally the thing they do."

"But my turnips..."

 

(source)

- - - - - - - - - -

Back then I probably would have been Phil, though.

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2 minutes ago, cixelsyd said:

 

Please be mindful of social distancing recommendations.  We must stay at least six feet apart, and faces will be partially covered.

OK, that made me laugh. Thanks for that.

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12 hours ago, Jurassic Lancer said:

Standing-O! I defy anyone one here to rebut this. I have literal skin in the game. Not money-literal skin. Real skin. 
 

And if you do rebut this, I hope you will have the balls to tell me face to face at Finals, if there ever is another Finals.

Well I'm not into measuring the size of balls but if you are threatening people then I find that really over the top aggressive behavior. People still hold different opinions and there is nothing wrong with that the last time I checked. 

I was not around for this spat when it began so not sure who said to not panic. But that is still good advice. 

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31 minutes ago, cixelsyd said:

Please be mindful of social distancing recommendations.  We must stay at least six feet apart, and faces will be partially covered.

Face masks..... New corps item at sovie tables?

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19 hours ago, Terri Schehr said:

Jim was in Japan in the 80’s in the Marine Corps and he said taxi drivers and bank tellers always wore white gloves.  And he saw a lot of masks.  He said if someone had a cold, they’d wear a mask.   He said they are extremely polite people.  He loves Japan. 

They do wear masks. Goes back for almost who knows how long. I lived there for 4 years. My wife is Japanese. 

Previous to SARS or swine flue / bird flu - almost all of the mask wearing in Japan was sick people not wanting to spread their germs. Now it is both protective and prevention. 

The white gloves is for many jobs even for elevator operators that is still a thing in most upscale department stores. Always very pretty women have that job. 🙂 

 

 

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