Top 12 Predictions 2023 (No off topic discussion, please!)

[saxfreq1128]

My gut has never been wrong about finals night and after many hours of prayer, reflection, some ayahuasca, and a power nap, my gut is telling me this:

It’s going to be BD or BAC. 

BD if: the guard and brassline overperform, relative to everyone else, to make up enough for what feels like an inevitable percussion deficit — which is a big task, but one they’ve accomplished in the past, generally under more favorable circumstances. And if they win visual proficiency outright.

BAC if: They win GE. Percussion is going elsewhere, but they’ll score high; brass is going elsewhere, but they’ll score high; guard is a toss-up — I’m leaning elsewhere — but they’ll of course score high. They’ll do well enough in these things that it won’t matter, because a great performance is still the best effect there is, and their GE and analysis scores will show it. 

I won’t be decided between these 2 until quarters but right now, I’m leaning quarters: BD, semis: BD, finals: BAC. 

[Jnecker]

Looks like because of Wet Fields Milatary Park warm ups have moved indoors to the Convention Center.  The rain has made Milatary Park too wet. DCI posted on Twitter or X or whatever it is called now.  Bummer we were excited to see that.

[Jnecker]

My son just confirmed,  no Military Pak Warm Ups...

[corps8294]

4 hours ago, Rocketman said:

1. BD (again)

2. Coats

3. Crusaders

4. Crown 

5. Mandarins

6, Cadets

7. Regiment

8. Cavaliers

9. Troopers

10. Colts

11. Crossmen

12. Blue Knights

Yeah, The Blue Stars may be having a rough go of it, this year; but they are still good enough for a finals spot. I don't see them dropping below 11. If they do, the work that needs to be done for 2024 needs to start, pronto. 

[MikeRapp]

16 minutes ago, corps8294 said:

Yeah, The Blue Stars may be having a rough go of it, this year; but they are still good enough for a finals spot. I don't see them dropping below 11. If they do, the work that needs to be done for 2024 needs to start, pronto. 

I find it very surprising that in 2023, a season without SCV, Blue Knights and Blue Stars are fighting to make Finals. Four years ago both were on the verge of becoming contenders for a medal. 

Edited August 10, 2023 by MikeRapp

[bkbass98]

1 hour ago, MikeRapp said:

I find it very surprising that in 2023, a season without SCV, Blue Knights and Blue Stars are fighting to make Finals. Four years ago both were on the verge of becoming contenders for a medal. 

I'm not sure that BK was ever quite to that level.  Maybe after 2015 the opportunity was there if all the stars aligned.  But by 2019, as much as I loved that program of “I Remember Everything” - like, as an alum it moves me in a way I can't fully express - there were some major red flags up ahead even if 2020 had happened.  For one, they were losing the most singular impactful figure in BK's history as Mark Arnold was (deservedly) stepping down after 35 years at the helm of the day to day operations.  I don't know if this was because of this or just coincidental to it, but Mike Jackson and Kevin Shah were also already gone from BK following the 2019 season.  I can't speak to what the situation was in the other areas of the design team/arrangers (namely Bocook), but I can tell you with absolute certainty that the Blue Knights that would have taken the field in 2020 would not have resembled the BK of the previous 5-6 seasons that people had become so intrigued with and appreciative of.

The only other thing I'll say about that situation was that I by chance had a dinner at St. Elmo's that November during BOA.  Some fellow BK alums were there along with a mutual friend who is very high up in the percussion community, and this one other person was there who I had never met.  It turned out to be person who was to have the (extremely unenviable) task of following Mike Jackson as the new BK caption head.  We'll never know how 2020 really would have fared for BK, but when I left that dinner I had a pretty sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach (the steak was great though).  What happened to BK through Covid became a litany of disasters, including Mark Arnold's hand picked successor (who had been shadowing Mark as his assistant director since 2016 in preparation for his eventual appointment) resigning before ever leading the corps through a single season.  That literally put the kid who had been on the podium for that Finals run in 2019 as the new executive director, 23 years old, and having to do so in the face of try to field a corps post-quarantine with a completely new design team.  

To be clear...I think Daniel Belcher (the ED) is going to be a smashing success as the true successor to Mark Arnold.  I think what he's done in just the short time he's been there has been phenomenal, and he's literally been learning the job as he goes.  Yes, Mark is still involved from an administrative standpoint (with Ascend Performing Arts), but this is Dan's corps.  He is the one who made the decisions to cut ties with that failed transition design team following the departure of the team from 2014-2019 and brought in the new one who returns with BK this week.  Again, I don't really know much of any of the real inner workings. I'm the most outsiders of insiders, other than the fact that I knew the writing was on the wall by October of 2019, that 2020 or beyond was not going to be a cohesive continued push forward of the identity BK had worked so hard and so intelligently to carve out for themselves through the 2010s.

I'm really, really, really proud of the people at the home team for weathering this storm, for bringing BK back out at a level that people do and should expect of them, and putting them back on the right path forward whether that means they suit up Saturday night or not.  Either way...

 

I go on...

Edited August 10, 2023 by bkbass98
Clarification

[WarriorWay]

I really do think BD takes it, but they won’t have such a big gap as last year, maybe half a point or less. The first 3 movements are SO good. Just incident in jazz is a little weird. But still I think they’ve probably got it.

 

I see Crown and Boston in 2nd /3rd. I think it may come down to who REALLY wants it.
 

Boston has two issues IMO. One, the first half of the show is not as compelling as the back half. Second, they’ve been squeaky clean for some time now. Unless they’ve radically changed something in the design of the show since, I think they may be 3rd as they’ve maxed out their GE. Other than that I think it’s a flawless production.

 

I could see Crown really wanting this. I do think they’ve got a HARD show with pretty much the full package (for once). The music is beautiful, orchestral, and outside of BD the most effective. I think their weakness is in the drill (it’s a little odd at times and difficult in parts that don’t need to be). But if the drill is clean clean clean- I don’t think it will matter.
I actually think concept wise it’s fine, sometimes it doesn’t need to be any deeper than it is yall. I just think this show has the emotional effect to bring them the silver - but they HAVE to achieve. There can be no mistakes.

the bluecoats show is not my cup of tea but I wish them the best.

Go colts 

 

Edited August 10, 2023 by WarriorWay

[90svet]

10 hours ago, corps8294 said:

Yeah, The Blue Stars may be having a rough go of it, this year; but they are still good enough for a finals spot. I don't see them dropping below 11. If they do, the work that needs to be done for 2024 needs to start, pronto. 

Comical.....first note of 2023 Prelims has yet to be played, and people are already worried about 2024.

[Vuitton]

10 hours ago, MikeRapp said:

I find it very surprising that in 2023, a season without SCV, Blue Knights and Blue Stars are fighting to make Finals. Four years ago both were on the verge of becoming contenders for a medal. 

Blue Stars, while having a rough season, aren't at risk of not making finals. 

Edited August 10, 2023 by Vuitton

[Vuitton]

6 hours ago, WarriorWay said:

Boston has two issues IMO. One, the first half of the show is not as compelling as the back half. Second, they’ve been squeaky clean for some time now. Unless they’ve radically changed something in the design of the show since, I think they may be 3rd as they’ve maxed out their GE. Other than that I think it’s a flawless production.

I agree with you, wholeheartedly, about the first half of their show, but although they may be clean there is still room to grow on the execution front. Their achievement scores show plenty of room for growth.

I think Boston can win guard. I don't see Bluecoats taking any captions. To me, Crown has the best bet to take the most captions from BD. Maybe I should have Crown in 2nd instead of Boston.